“A chance to maintain strategic stability”: how a moratorium on the deployment of INF Treaty can affect security in Europe

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia has come up with a proposal to NATO member countries to join the moratorium on the deployment of medium and shorter-range missiles (INF).

“Let me remind you that, despite the destruction of the US Intermediate-Range Missile Treaty, we made a very important political gesture. President Putin said that the treaty no longer exists, but we will act in a mirror: if the US begins to develop appropriate means, we reserve the right to do the same, if it is, and we will have such a right, ”Lavrov said, speaking in front of MGIMO students.

As the Foreign Minister noted, the President of the Russian Federation emphasized that Moscow would not deploy missiles falling under the INF Treaty in those regions where similar American missiles would not be deployed.

“And if the United States refrains from deploying in Europe, whether in Asia, then we will not take the same steps. This is a serious offer. In fact, the moratorium, a voluntary moratorium, which we have already brought to the attention of NATO members, invited them to collectively join this moratorium. They have not yet responded with consent, ”the head of the Russian foreign ministry added.

Sergey Lavrov also noted that Moscow has no plans to involve Beijing in negotiations on the situation with the INF Treaty. The head of Russian diplomacy recalled that the Trump administration wants to resume negotiations on the agreement only with the participation of Beijing.

“The PRC said that the scale of its nuclear potential is not comparable with the US and Russian, therefore, participation in the negotiations cannot be supported. But the Americans continue to declare this, we are asked to persuade the PRC. We will not deal with these. If the USA gets the consent of the PRC, then we will be ready to talk. But to force Beijing, in addition to his will, I think is not very correct, ”said Sergey Lavrov.

• Sergey Lavrov
• RIA News
• © Ramil Sitdikov

The first deputy chairman of the State Duma’s defense committee, Alexander Sherin, said in an interview with RT that the proposal to observe a moratorium on the deployment of intermediate and shorter-range missiles “gives a chance to maintain strategic stability,” which could be undermined by the collapse of the INF Treaty.

“This proposal suggests that it is not necessary to conclude any agreements in order to fulfill the gentlemen’s obligations,” Sherin added.

As the deputy emphasized, the proposal of such a moratorium testifies that Russia stands for maintaining stability and security in the world.

“This shows that the Russian Federation is fighting to the last so that even in the absence of this document it does not develop into some kind of arms race and does not destabilize the situation in the world,” the parliamentarian said.

Speaking about the lack of reaction on the part of NATO member countries to the Russian proposal for a moratorium, Corresponding Member of the Academy of Military Sciences Sergey Sudakov emphasized that as long as the United States dominates the alliance and is its key sponsor, Moscow’s initiatives will not be noticed.

“For the United States, NATO is a business model on which they make good money and also secure the purchase of political status. The alliance members are well aware that the Russian proposal is good and it’s not worth immediately rejecting it, but the fact is that Washington has already invested tremendous money in the development of the latest medium and shorter-range ground-based missiles and it will be simply impossible to refuse a grandiose plan, ” An expert commented on the situation in an interview with RT.

“Validity of claims”

Recall, on August 23, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a statement in which he said that the United States intended to leave the treaty and organized a “propaganda campaign” for this.

“Instead of correcting this unacceptable situation and returning to compliance with the treaty, the Americans organized a propaganda campaign about Russia’s allegedly non-compliance with the provisions of this treaty,” Putin said.

On August 18, the United States tested the ground-based cruise missile, which, according to the US military, hit the target at a distance of over 500 km, the Russian president recalled.

“Such weapons are classified as prohibited under the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Short-Range Missiles of 1987. In addition, the use of the MK 41 universal launcher during the test fully confirms the validity of the claims that the Russian side expressed to the United States during the contract, ”Vladimir Putin said at a meeting of the Security Council.

He recalled that the United States denied the possibility of launching Tomahawk sea-based cruise missiles using the Mk 41

“It is noteworthy that tests of a rocket with characteristics prohibited under this agreement took place only 16 days after the completion of the procedure for denunciation of the said agreement initiated by Washington. And it is obvious that it was not improvisation, but became the next link in a chain of events that were planned and carried out earlier. This only confirms the validity of our previously expressed concerns. We previously had information that the United States has long been engaged in the creation of weapons prohibited by the INF Treaty, ”said Vladimir Putin.

“Inadmissible luxury”

Recently, the United States has constantly accused Russia of violating the INF Treaty. In 2018, the Donald Trump administration announced that it would leave the contract because of the Russian 9M729 cruise missile, which, according to Washington, is supposedly capable of covering a distance of over 500 km.

• Russian rocket 9M729
• Reuters
• © Maxim Shemetov / File

At the same time, the United States itself deployed Mk 41 missiles in Eastern Europe, allegedly as part of the expansion of the missile defense system.

Moscow tried to keep the treaty in effect - the Russian Defense Ministry held a special briefing for foreign military attaches with a demonstration of the 9M729 missile and its technical characteristics, but representatives of the United States and NATO countries ignored it.

Subsequently, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that NATO countries do not intend to deploy new ground-based nuclear missiles in Europe, adding? that NATO "does not want a new arms race."

However, not all countries share this view. Poland, which is consistently strengthening the US military presence on its territory, believes that this issue is open for discussion. This was announced at the end of August by the head of the Polish government Mateusz Moravecki in an interview with the German newspaper Westdeutsche Allgemeine Zeitung.

“The issue of deploying medium-range missiles with nuclear warheads in Europe should be discussed and resolved within NATO,” Moravecki said.

Thus, the Polish prime minister did not virtually exclude the possibility of deploying missiles previously banned by the INF Treaty in Europe, despite statements by Jens Stoltenberg to the contrary, experts say.

Such a situation will become a problem for NATO countries, believes Sergey Sudakov.

“The countries of Europe are well aware that the new stage of the arms race is evil for all countries, because there will be no winner. I believe that they will blame the United States and say that it is bad. However, in the end, of course, they will put up with what they have, because it’s impermissible luxury for them now to have their own voice, ”the expert noted.

The editor of Arsenal of the Fatherland magazine Alexei Leonkov in an interview with RT noted that the DRMSD was primarily concluded in the interests of Europe, so that there were no nuclear weapons on its territory and, accordingly, Russian missiles were not aimed at their bases.

“If the media write about the Russian initiative and Europe hears it, then there is a chance that these countries will try to distance themselves from deploying nuclear weapons on their territory. Most likely, the old Europe will support the Russian initiative - France, Germany, Italy, and those countries that later joined the EU will advocate the deployment of American missiles. But the Americans will put pressure on all their levers of influence in Europe, and this initiative is likely to remain unrealized, ”the expert concluded.