Two German states vote with an eye on the extreme right

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There are only two states that vote this Sunday, but rarely the expectation was so high on the eve of regional elections in Germany. Saxony and Brandenburg play much more than a new regional government. The polls indicate a notable rise of the ultra-right-wing Alternative Party for Germany (AfD) in these regions, and do not rule out that in some cases the conservative Christian Merchant Union (CDU) of Angela Merkel as the most voted party. The victory in one of its bastions would suppose a strong impulse at national level for the ultra party.

The mobilization will be a key factor this Sunday. In Saxony, some surveys predict a close result, with AfD at around 25 percent in intention to vote, just two points behind the CDU. Another survey of the ZDF chain shows a clear victory for conservative formation, which has ruled this border land for the Czech Republic for thirty years. The public chain foresees 32 percent for the chancellor's party and 25.4 percent for the right-wing populists, who would be second, more than ten points from the third parties, Los Verdes. The Social Democratic Party coalition partner in the federal government sinks with less than 10 percent of the vote.

Despite having cities of notable importance such as Leipzig or Dresden, Saxony does not usually occupy a preferred place in German today. Not so now just one year ago, when the murder of a young Cuban-German at the hands of two asylum seekers triggered a wave of xenophobic protests. Nazi greetings were seen and songs were heard against immigrants and the political class. The mob of angry citizens, to which AfD and ultras groups joined the edge of legality, shocked Germany.

In Brandenburg it is estimated that one in five who will vote for AfD. In this state, large and sparsely populated, that surrounds Berlin, the SPD governs uninterruptedly since reunification. Its leader Dietmar Woidke has before him a hard electoral pulse. The polls place him around 22 percent of the votes, just one point above Andreas Kalbitz, leader of the AfD and representative of the most radical wing of the party.

Kalbitz recently recognized links with Nazism . The online edition of the weekly Spiegel published this week that the politician went to a neo-Nazi mobilization in Athens in 2007. There he met with leaders of the German neo-Nazi scene, including the head of the NPD party, Udo Voigt. Despite the scandal, the AfD leader in Brandenburg seems to have the support of the party's leadership, which has accepted the explanations he was forced to give during the campaign. "I was never a member of the NPD," he said.

In Brandenburg, the CDU does not rule out any alliance to deal with AfD. He does not even reject as a member the Left, a taboo until now for the formation of Merkel, for the post-communist roots of that party.

The states of Saxony and Brandenburg total less than six million inhabitants in a country with about 82 million. The key to the importance of these elections is, therefore, not their demographic weight, but the ability of two East German states to cope with the rise of the extreme right. The challenge is great for the democratic forces: capture the vote in two states of the former GDR and still drag the stigma of depressed and forgotten places. Thirty after the fall of the Iron Curtain, there are many who believe here that the reunification of Germany has failed.

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