Italian President Sergio Mattarella on August 29 instructed previously resigned Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte to form a new government with the participation of the Five Star Movement and the Democratic Party. This was announced following the talks between the head of state and the politician.
A day earlier, the leader of the Five Star Movement Luigi di Mayo and his Democratic colleague Nicola Zingaretti said they had agreed to form a government led by Giuseppe Conte.
“We love Italy and think it's worth a try,” Reuters quoted Zingaretti as saying.
According to the agency, together the two parties have in the lower and upper houses of the Italian parliament the majority necessary for the formation of the cabinet.
However, so far there is no information about the details of a possible coalition agreement between the two heterogeneous political forces and about those who will become ministers in the new cabinet of Conte. The Five Star Movement is the political power of the Eurosceptics, advocating for the renewal of Italian politics. The Democratic Party, on the contrary, unites mainstream left-wing centrists.
The president’s decision to entrust Giuseppe Conte to form a new government was led by a political crisis in the ranks of the former government coalition. It brought together right-wing Eurosceptics from the Liga party Matteo Salvini and left-wing Eurosceptics from the Five Star Movement.
However, in early August, amid a series of disagreements, Salvini called for the dissolution of the government and the holding of early parliamentary elections. The League tried to raise the question of passing a vote of no confidence to Giuseppe Conte in the Italian Senate.
On August 20, the prime minister resigned, but President Mattarella did not call for an early election. Instead, he instructed Conte to continue to perform his duties, and he himself began negotiations with leaders of parliamentary parties over the creation of a new government.
"Political simulacrum"
As Nikita Daniuk, deputy head of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Forecasts at the RUDN University, noted in an interview with RT, the main reason for creating a coalition of the Five Star and Democrat Movement is the fears of the Italian establishment that in the event of early parliamentary elections, Matteo Salvini will come to power.
Now his party - “League” - is the most popular in the country. Western politicians call this politician “Putin’s friend”, and he does not hide his sympathies for the Russian president. As Minister of the Interior and Deputy Prime Minister in the Government, Conte Salvini actively opposed illegal migration, which contributed to the growing popularity of his political force.
According to the poll of the sociological service "Demopolis", published on August 26, "League" is the leader of the electoral preferences of Italians. 33% of voters are ready to vote for it. In second place are Democrats - 23%. The third is the "Five Star Movement" - 19%. In fourth place is the right-wing party Brothers of Italy (6.8%). Closes the top five movement "Forward, Italy" Silvio Berlusconi. For the party of the former prime minister, 6.2% of voters are ready to vote.
“No one in either the Italian or the European establishment wants Eurosceptics and traditionalists from the League to come to power in Italy,” said RT Danyuk. - That is why they will now try to construct an artificial political simulacrum of the Democrats and the Five Star Movement.
According to the expert, the main problem of the new coalition is that the programs of the Five Star Movement and the Democratic Party "do not fight." If a coalition is created, then the “stars”, according to Danyuk, will have to abandon many social policy initiatives and agree on possible austerity measures that Brussels will try to push through with the support of the Democrats. In the long run, this could lead to the loss of five stars support by the Movement and the collapse of the new coalition.
“Now the Democratic Party and the Five Star Movement will be able to agree, but the union will not be long-term: both parties look at Italy differently,” Danyuk believes.
Henry Sardaryan, Dean of the Department of Management and Politics at MGIMO, agrees with this opinion.
“After some time, we will face the fact that pre-term elections will be held in Italy anyway, but Salvini’s rating will only increase,” Sardaryan believes.
In turn, an expert at the Center for Geopolitical Expertise Daria Platonova noted in an interview with RT that attempts to neutralize Matteo Salvini’s potential, or at least force him to change his position, are noticeable on the right flank of the Italian political spectrum.
Experts predict that the League may return to power in the next election by joining a coalition with the Brothers of Italy and the Forward, Italy party. The possibility of such a coalition was previously announced by Matteo Salvini. Like Salvini, George Meloni, the head of the Brothers, and Silvio Berlusconi are calling for early elections.
- George Meloni, Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi April 12, 2018
- Reuters
- © Max Rossi
At the same time, the former prime minister previously emphasized that his party will adhere to a center-right, liberal, EU-oriented political course.
According to the Italian newspaper Il Libero Quotidiano, Berlusconi said the need to abandon populist tendencies and "naivety of supporters of complete sovereignty", which is unlikely to find full support from the "League" and "Brothers of Italy." According to Berlusconi, in politics it is necessary to return to the confrontation between left-wing and center-right.
“In Italy, the political forces representing the establishment are desperate to return to the classic confrontation between left and right mainstream parties, between which there really is no fundamental difference,” Daria Platonova said in a conversation with RT. “They are trying to unite the Five Stars with the Democrats, and push the League into the framework of the usual right-wing European party.”
The fall of the "stars"
According to experts, the fact that the new government will be headed by Giuseppe Conte indicates the forced and compromise nature of the new government. As Nikita Danyuk emphasizes, Conte, a former university professor, is not a professional politician. In 2018, he became the prime minister precisely as a compromise figure. Whereas Conte was previously responsible for trying to strike a compromise between the League and the Five Star Movement, now he will try to strike a balance between the “stars” and the Democrats.
“Conte is a fairly compromise figure, capable of maintaining a balance in the government, and is therefore quite popular,” says Nikita Danyuk.
As Luigi di Mayo emphasized earlier, the decision to form a coalition government with the Democrats must still be approved by party supporters in online voting. According to experts, not everyone in the sufficiently loose five-star movement will approve the coalition. Possible split.
- Head of the Five Star Movement Luigi di Mayo
- Reuters
- © Yara Nardi
“The five-star movement was created as a force that was supposed to overthrow the Democratic Party. And it was not built on the principle of unification around a specific program, but rather as an anti-establishment party, which will act principally against the Democratic Party. And today she goes to a coalition with this force. Such a position of the party may lead to the fact that the Five Star Movement will split, ”Henry Sardaryan believes.
According to the expert, the main political force that will benefit from this will be the League, which, on the contrary, demonstrates cohesion and expands the base of its electoral support.
“The League has a wide electorate, it has doubled over the year. This is shown by the results of the elections to the European Parliament. And I personally don’t see the reasons why this rating should fall, ”the expert notes. - Those promises that the party made, she tried to implement. And the Five Star Movement, which mercilessly criticized the Democratic Party, is now creating a coalition with them. This gives Salvini the most important trump card. In the long run, he will destroy this movement. “League” will be the only anti-establishment party in Italy and will be able to win over the entire electorate of the Five Star Movement, ”Sardaryan believes.
"Pyrrhic victory"
Statements about the beginning of the formation of the government of the Five Star Movement and the Democratic Party were criticized by the initiator of the breakup of the former coalition Matteo Salvini. The politician, still holding the post of deputy prime minister, said that the new coalition will not protect the national interests of the country.
- Senate of Italy
- Reuters
- © Yara Nardi
“It annoys me that Italy is being sold again at a low price. It annoys me that the future of Italy is once again decided beyond its borders. Someone in Brussels wants a weak government, ”Salvini wrote on his Twitter.
#Salvini: mi dà fastidio che l'Italia tornerà ad essere svenduta. Mi dà fastidio che il Futuro dell'Italia sia stato deciso fuori dall'Italia. Qualcuno a Bruxelles vuole un governo debole.
📺 #StaseraItalia
According to Nikita Daniuk, in relations with Rome, "Brussels will understand that the new government in Italy is no longer Eurosceptic." However, according to him, for the EU it will be a Pyrrhic victory.
“The fact that in Italy the most popular party is the League is nowhere to go,” said Danyuk. “In the future, Rome is set to have a tough conversation with Brussels, not intending to sacrifice its sovereignty and its subjectivity.”
At the same time, according to the expert, one should not expect any deterioration or improvement of relations with Russia from changes in the composition of the Italian government. Objectively, Italy is interested in lifting anti-Russian sanctions, but even under the government of Euro-skeptics, it obediently voted for the extension of anti-Russian restrictive measures in the EU Council.
“Russia as a whole is an important partner for Italy. We are actively cooperating in the energy sector. Italy has consistently said that it is important to review the sanctions policy against Russia, ”the expert says.
Henry Sardaryan does not expect major changes in foreign policy. According to him, a coalition aimed only at one thing - to prevent Salvini from coming to power, simply will not be up to drastic steps in this direction.
“If such a government is formed, then the foreign policy will not undergo major changes,” the political scientist believes.
According to Nikita Danyuk, "in the long run, the coming to power in Italy of the right-wing conservative government of Matteo Salvini" is inevitable. In turn, Daria Platonova notes that it is possible to strengthen street protests in Italy. Earlier, George Meloni had already announced her readiness to take people to the streets.
“People are trying to slip in a political theater where a fight between the right and left is being played, but people can’t be fooled so simply,” she notes. - It is worth waiting for the growth of protests, the radicalization of society. It is possible that in Italy there will be a movement similar to the "yellow vests" in France. "