There have been four recent incidents in Iraq in which Iranian-backed paramilitary forces were bombed or bombed under mysterious circumstances, bringing to the fore a conflict that was quietly brewing there. Iran's role in Iraq has expanded over the past decade and a half, raising questions about Tehran's goals and how it views Iraq.

On the one hand, Iran considers Iraq an ally, based on its concept. It sought high-level meetings with Iraqi officials and discussed with them the issue of joint defense. In March, for example, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani traveled to Iraq. Bilateral agreements were signed, including economic agreements, and the Iranians were allowed to travel without a visa to Iraq to visit Shiite holy sites. However, Iraqis may also protest Iran's role. In the summer of 2018, protests in Basra targeted Iran and its Popular Mobilization Forces. There are complaints about the huge financial resources Iraq pays for supplying electricity. Also, there are rumors that Iran is helping to smuggle drugs into Iraq.

Nevertheless, Iranian-backed paramilitaries have contributed to the defeat of ISIS, and many of the local PMU-affiliated people belong to different sects. The crowd helped arm and provide security for the local population. Young people believe that working in these militias provides them with good returns. But these groups are also accused of being involved in corruption and running secret prisons. For some, these groups apply some form of justice to alleged ISIS members. But for the other Iraqis who fled the ISIS war in 2014, this means they have difficulty returning home, fearing reprisals from these paramilitary groups.

Syrian formula

Iranian policy in Iraq may end up in a formula such as its role in Syria, Lebanon or Yemen. It could support proxy forces or work with one large group, such as Hezbollah. It can be an ally of the government, as in Syria, or work on the ground to expand its religious influence and create a kind of parallel state. Iraq is Iran's closest neighbor. But for Iran, it has no concept of annexing territory, but wants to extend its influence. They may also want direct control through paramilitary militias, or the creation of allied political parties that can control government ministries.

In Iraq, for example, pro-Iranian parties have taken control of the powerful Interior Ministry. However, as with paramilitary groups, they can be considered a logical and acceptable support. Leaders of paramilitary groups and parties, such as Hadi al-Amiri, grew up in Iran in the 1980s and continued to fight alongside the IRGC against the regime of the former Iraqi president. Saddam Hussein, with good reasons for alliance with Iran, helped Iran when they wanted to be free from Saddam.

The Iranian Goal

The question today is how people like Ameri see Iraq who want him to progress. Do they want an Iraq equal to Iran, or does Iran's long-term goal want a weak Iraq, devoid of its resources, economy and defense? Does Iran want the PMF to become a kind of Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Iraq, to ​​replace the army little by little, and assume its role until the Iraqi army wither, and the PMF becomes the main force in Iraq? Or will the Iraqi central government rein in these paramilitary groups, as it has sought before? Former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi saw the PMF as a hope for the future of Iraq and the region, as he told former US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. If this is the role of the PMU and its allied parties in parliament, along with allied religious institutions - all of which tend to be a single entity like Hezbollah in Lebanon - the PMU will grow, and the central Iraqi government will not have any list. Iran was a victim of a strong Iraq under Saddam. Iran may fear that Iraq will regain its strength, with the long-term effects of Syria, Lebanon and Yemen in Iran.

Iranian policy in Iraq could end up

To a formula like its role in Syria or Lebanon

Or Yemen. They can support proxy forces,

Or working with one large group,

Like Hezbollah.