Israeli military analysts expect clash with Hezbollah .. Is it still limited?

Muhammad Mohsen Wad-Occupied Jerusalem

The attack and raids on military headquarters in Syria, and the bombing of drones over the southern suburb of Beirut, reflect criticism of the Israeli government, and its inability to face the escalation and repeated attacks carried out by Hamas on the southern front with the Gaza Strip.

Israeli analysts agree that Israel's internal political reality cannot be separated from the tensions on the border fronts, stressing that tensions on the northern front with Lebanon and Syria are escalating as the Knesset election campaign nears its final stage, ahead of the September 17 elections.

In the face of escalation and threats on the Gaza and Lebanon fronts, the Israeli prime minister is seeking to win a sixth term, resolve parliamentary elections and strengthen the far-right camp.

Netanyahu is trying to take advantage of military activity in Syria or Lebanon, employ the security aspect, and evoke tension with Hezbollah in the Knesset's election campaign, while trying to play down the discussion of the population of the settlements in the "Gaza envelope."

Threat and alert

Ron Ben-Yishai, a military analyst for Wint, asserted that the IDF had intelligence and operational capabilities to deter Nasrallah.

According to estimates by the Israeli military analyst, Hezbollah's secretary-general will recommend that his forces not carry out a large-scale attack or provocation against Israel, which would give Prime Minister and Defense Minister Netanyahu the basis for what the army has long been preparing for an all-out war on Lebanon.

Regarding the motives of Nasrallah's persistence of threats, the military analyst explained that Nasrallah threatens to believe that because of the Knesset elections, Israel will not respond with a war or a large-scale military operation. It is estimated that "the elections to the Knesset, if Hezbollah carried out its threats, will not stop the Israeli army from waging war."

The Israeli military analyst asserted that Hezbollah's implementation of Nasrallah's threats would motivate the Israeli army to implement previous plans to undermine and destroy the party in Lebanon, which would serve Netanyahu and secure a sixth term to form the next government.

Escalation and conflict

For his part, thinks Amos Harel, a military analyst in the newspaper "Haaretz" that Israel has violated the rules of the game against Nasrallah, and the next step will be him. Attacks in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon - which is attributed to Israel - point to a significant escalation in the struggle for influence and control between Tel Aviv and Iran in the Middle East .

In the short term, the military analyst said, the threat might not be Iranian, but rather that of Hizbullah's secretary-general, who has already declared that Israel has crossed a red line, so alertness and high alert on the Israeli side is expected to continue for some time.

War and Resolve

Regarding the seriousness of Nasrallah's threats and the steps and actions Hezbollah may take against Israel, Amos Yadlin, director of the National Security Research Institute and former head of the Israeli National Security Council, believes that Nasrallah does not want a war, but in his view Israel has crossed the red lines and broke the rules of the game. Since the 2006 Lebanon war.

By targeting the southern suburbs with booby-trapped marches, harming the missile project and killing Hezbollah members in Syria, Hizbullah found itself facing conditions that would require a response.He estimated that future responses would target Israeli forces in the Golan Heights with drones and counter-fire.

The former head of Israel's National Security Council believes Nasrallah hints at his statements and threats that he will respond, but the response will be limited so that Israel can contain it and not go for a full-scale military confrontation and war against Lebanon, because he knows well that Israel does not want war either.

Regarding Israeli preparedness on the northern border and the possibility of war, Yadlin says, "a limited and localized response by Hizbullah may end up as a pivotal event, but if it results in significant damage it could cause a harsh Israeli reaction, and from there it could lead to a deterioration of all-out war in several locations in the north. Either with Lebanon or Syria on the Golan. "

"Whatever the size of the field developments on the northern front, the final decision will be after the elections," Yadlin concluded. "The small cabinet for security and political affairs (the cabinet) will find the question: Are the precision missile threats included in the list of targets that require Israel to deal a fatal blow? Preventive war? ".