Washington (AFP)

After the G7, Donald Trump faces a dilemma against Iran: easing the draconian sanctions that are the alpha and the omega of his strategy, at the risk of turning the Republican hawks, or miss the opportunity to initiate a direct dialogue with Tehran.

At the summit in Biarritz, France, the intense diplomatic effort of French President Emmanuel Macron led to the first opening after months of escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran, with the possibility of a direct meeting in the coming weeks, the President of the United States and his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rohani.

But the conditions for this appeasement to materialize, for example at the United Nations General Assembly in late September in New York, are far from being met.

The Iranian president has warned since Tuesday that the United States should previously lift "all the sanctions" they have imposed on Iran since Donald Trump slammed the door in May 2018, the international agreement on nuclear Iranian.

This is the whole purpose of the European strategy, driven by Emmanuel Macron: to convince the Republican billionaire, who repeats wanting to negotiate "a better deal" with the Iranian leaders, that it must make an economic gesture towards Tehran . The French diplomats hoped, before and during the G7, that Washington agrees to restore some of the exemptions that allowed Iran, until last spring, to export its oil to China, India or Japan without these countries are hit by US sanctions.

- Credit line -

However, it is difficult to see the Trump administration come back, even for a "limited period" as the French president suggests, on the removal of these derogations, which in his view are the key to the "maximum pressure" intended to strangle the economy. from Iran and make capitulate its leaders.

The tenant of the White House said it clearly in Biarritz: he does not want to give "compensation" to Teheran.

"Trump is surrounded by people who want to see the regime collapse," said Barbara Slavin, of the Atlantic Council think tank. Among the hawks who push for a line of absolute firmness, his national security advisor John Bolton, but also his secretary of state Mike Pompeo.

If the US president decided to soften the sanctions on Iranian oil in exchange for a tête-à-tête with Hassan Rohani, "he should dismiss Bolton or Bolton should resign," said the Iranian expert interviewed by AFP.

It's a possibility, but few believe it in Washington. Donald Trump has already surprised the world by meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, but without concessions on sanctions - which has contributed to the current stalemate with Pyongyang.

And while waiting for his next decisions, the greatest caution seemed to be put in his government, where no one ventured on Tuesday to detail the strategy for the coming weeks.

The former New York businessman, however, appeared more open to the other technical trail suggested by Paris: a "credit line" - an amount of 15 billion dollars was mentioned by some media - that would give Tehran some oxygen, for example to buy drugs.

- "Photo shoot" -

"They might need some money to overcome a very bad pass," said Donald Trump. "We are talking about a facility that would be a letter of credit," "guaranteed by oil," he added.

But even this "line of credit" is likely to go wrong with part of the Republican camp.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif's only visit to Biarritz to meet with European officials has been denounced by former US ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, who accused Emmanuel Macron of having "manipulated" his American counterpart.

And Mark Dubowitz, of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies who advocates maximum pressure against Tehran, warned on Twitter: "Donald Trump, harden the sanctions, do not release them prematurely".

Lastly, it is not sure that such financial support will be enough to create the conditions for a Trump-Rohani meeting.

"Trump has punished Iran more than any other president in American history", "why Rohani would reward him for a photo shoot?" Asks Barbara Slavin, recalling that the Iranian leader refused to meet Barack Obama despite his position much more conciliatory.

According to her, the main French strategy is to save time until the November 2020 presidential election in the United States. "Macron's message to Tehran," she says, "is: + hold on, regime change is coming to Washington."

© 2019 AFP