Sudan after the revolution .. Traps economy besiege Hamdouk

Ahmed Fadl-Khartoum

Abdullah Hamdouk expressed great satisfaction as he diagnosed the economic crisis in his first television interview after his inauguration as prime minister.

Hamdok must come up with a recipe for his country to avoid experimenting with the experimenter in overcoming the worsening economy since South Sudan seceded in 2011, accounting for two-thirds of oil production.

Beginning in 2012, Sudan approved about five packages to lift subsidies on fuel and bread flour, leading to a series of violent protests in September 2013, when some 200 protesters were killed by security forces.

As 2018 entered, the economic situation deteriorated to the point of queuing in front of service stations and bakeries, and customers' access to savings in banks stalled, triggering the December revolution that toppled President Bashir on April 11.

Narrow options
These woes will put the economy at the top of the priorities of the new prime minister, who appeared fascinated during the television interview with the economic renaissance achieved by neighboring Ethiopia.

The man narrowed his choices when he was assured that no decisions would be taken to lift government subsidies on goods, create a local "recipe" that takes into account the stressful living conditions of citizens, and pay international funds to help unconditionally.

But economic expert Siham Sharif assures Al Jazeera Net that it is indispensable to lift government subsidies on goods until the economy recovers, although it would be painful.

According to the 2019 budget, government subsidies for wheat, fuel and electricity are estimated at more than $ 1 billion, as well as electricity subsidies.

Aid or loans
Before that, Hamdouk said Sudan needed foreign aid worth $ 8 billion and another $ 2 billion in reserves at the central bank to halt the pound's deterioration.

Sharif says it is difficult to provide these funds, but she says they can be made available in three to four years.

She ruled out that initiatives offered by expatriates on social media platforms through the "dignity dollar" to cover the amounts required in hard currency to address the crisis of the economy.

Siham proposes to borrow $ 8 billion that Hamdouk talked about for major development projects in agriculture, massacres and leather manufacturing.

Agreements with Saudi Arabia signed in November 2015 to invest 1 million acres provided by the Upper Atbara and Setit dams (eastern Sudan), as well as the construction of Shreik, Kajbar and Dal dams in the north of the country to cover the power generation deficit of about 500 megawatts, have stalled.

Sudan has also failed to attract funding for the 2.4 million feddans of the Wadi Al Hawad agricultural project, which extends from the east to the north of the country.

Gulf promises
"The challenge for the Hamdouk government will be to persuade investors - especially the Gulf governments - to make these big investments that can change the shape of economic life," says economic journalist Asim Ismail.

He adds to the island Net that the amount of land available from the State Dam and Atbara equivalent to half of the island project, while the area of ​​the project Alhwad, which projects will fill the foreign exchange deficit.

The head of the Economic Committee of the Sudanese Society for Consumer Protection Hassan al-Quni that there are promises from the Gulf countries could help save $ 8 billion, as well as the troika and the European Union, which pledged to help Sudan economically in the event of the transfer of power to civilians.

Al-Quni believes in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net that there are "timid promises" from China and Russia to help Sudan out of the search for the position of a man in a promising country, in addition to the use of Hamdok good relations at the African and international levels to support his program in three years.

Monetary policy
As an emergency solution, Hamdouk will have to seek quick remedies to halt the deterioration of the national currency, tight liquidity and reduce inflation.

As of July, the rate of inflation in Sudan reached 52.5%, while the exchange rate of the dollar in the parallel market reached 65 pounds, with the continued presence of about 98% of the monetary mass outside the banks.

Sharif said $ 2 billion to tackle dysfunctional monetary policies would exacerbate external debt, currently $ 65 billion.

But al-Quni believes that foreign debt can be subject to agreements with creditor countries, which needs political and economic action to facilitate the terms of repayment for Sudan to stand on his feet.

Promising sectors
Siham agrees with Al-Qouni that there are sectors that can contribute to the reform of the economy, especially agriculture and livestock, provided that Hamdouk promised to stop exporting crude oil, corn, gum, sesame and cotton to achieve an additional value of 30%.

Siham proposes the establishment of an export and import commission, whose task is to control and develop policies to reduce the export-import deficit of about $ 6 billion and to stop importing luxury goods.

The mining sector promising, provided that the smuggling of gold, where about 75% of the production of precious metal of 100 tons per year. Siham points to the importance of government control of at least 80% of production.

Although Hamdouk has played down the seriousness of the economic crisis, which served as a fuse that ignited the revolution, he will be required to combat rampant corruption; reaching the stage of spreading the concept of contempt for bribery and cronyism in society will not be easy.