“Prices will start to rise soon”: how the reduction of diesel imports from Russia will affect the energy sector of Ukraine

The volume of Russian diesel supplies to the Ukrainian market in August will be halved. About this on Facebook wrote the representative of the President of Ukraine in the Cabinet, Andriy Gerus. According to him, if earlier the share of imports from the Russian Federation accounted for 45%, now this figure will be 20%.

“In August, the volume of diesel supplies from Russia will decrease by about half and make up about 20% of our market, and not 45%, as it was before. But deliveries from Belarus, the EU and from maritime destinations increased, ”Gerus said.

Earlier, he reported that the Mozyr refinery would increase supplies by 25% - up to 250-260 thousand tons per month.

They will become one of the alternatives to Russian fuel, the volume of purchases of which has only increased over the past three years. However, as Gerus emphasized, Kiev managed to turn the tide by introducing special duties. So, from August 1, a tariff of 3.75% is set for diesel fuel distilled through pipelines, and from October it will increase to 4%.

At the same time, a representative of the president said that this state of affairs not only did not increase fuel prices, but also allowed them to be reduced by 20–80 kopecks per liter.

The RT source in the Popular Front party, commenting on this statement, noted that the period of price reduction would not last long, and the administration of Vladimir Zelensky, having introduced duties, "shot himself in the foot."

“Diesel prices are now low due to large reserves, but they will run out soon. I think in three weeks we will see a rise in prices. This is surprising, but due to anti-Russian hysteria, the new administration is ready to worsen the economic situation of Ukrainian companies. Prices for goods and services will rise. Who is worse off from this? ”The party representative said.

The low price is also explained by the decrease in fuel quality, which now remains on the Ukrainian market, said the head of the Ukrainian analytical center, economist Alexander Okhrimenko.

“At the moment, those companies that drove diesel from Russia have stopped activities in this area. Diesel is imported from Belarus, and it is really cheap, because quality is falling. And the authorities should not look at this resource from the point of view of price, but from the point of view of price-quality ratio, ”said Ohrimenko RT.

Summed up the economy

Only private entrepreneurs will benefit from the actual departure of the Russian diesel engine from the Ukrainian market, the RT source in the Ministry of Fuel and Energy of Ukraine is sure.

“Russian diesel fuel is inexpensive and delivered on time, which is why it occupied 45% of the Ukrainian market. This was beneficial primarily for the economy of Ukraine itself. The gradual abandonment of Russian fuel is beneficial to the Ukrainian company Ukrtatnafta, which is controlled by the Privat group of Igor Kolomoisky. I think it’s not worth reminding that Kolomoisky is associated with the new president, Vladimir Zelensky, ”the source said.

At the same time, he emphasized that the duties imposed by Zelensky were discussed even under his predecessor, Petro Poroshenko. “A precedent has occurred in the Ukrainian oil products market. The introduction of restrictive duties against Russian fuel was discussed under President Petro Poroshenko, but he did not take this step, ”the representative of the department said.

Benefit of Belarus

Experts believe that Belarus will also benefit from new conditions in the energy market of Ukraine. According to Stanislav Mitrahovich, an expert at the National Energy Security Fund, a professor at the Financial University under the Government of Russia, Minsk will sell Kiev the same Russian diesel engine, but at a different price.

“Russian fuel now does not go directly, but is delivered first through a pipe to Belarus, where it is loaded onto railway tanks and delivered to Ukraine. Thus, the Belarusian intermediaries are given the opportunity to earn, and the final difference in the price that arises from the need to pay for the work of Belarusian intermediaries will affect the citizens of Ukraine, as it will lead to some increase in the cost, ”RT Mitrakhovich said.

Igor Yushkov, a leading expert of the National Energy Security Fund, drew attention to the prospect of increasing diesel prices for the end consumer. He emphasized that, having actually stopped deliveries through the pipeline, Kiev left railway, road and sea transportation, which are much more expensive.

“Now there are only those supplies that go by rail or road. This type of supply is much more expensive than through a pipe. Therefore, diesel for Ukrainians will rise in price. Some volumes of Russian supplies will remain, but gradually Ukraine will focus on other suppliers. However, Russia will not have problems with the sale of its diesel, but Ukrainians will have to look for it from other traders, ”the expert said in a comment to RT.

In this regard, as the RT source in the Batkivshchyna party noted, only the Ukrainian side will lose.

“If Zelensky’s circle believes that Vladimir Putin will suffer from a reduction in Russian diesel supplies, they are mistaken. Large batches of diesel fuel are purchased, for example, by Ukrainian Railways. Buying diesel at a higher price will lead to higher ticket prices. And it will not be Vladimir Putin who will have to pay for this, but an ordinary Ukrainian passenger, ”the representative of the party concluded.