Although the Nigerian presidency announced in a statement issued on July 30, 2019, the defeat of the movement «Boko Haram», after 10 years of terrorist operations, which the latter launched since 2009, and led to the deaths of 27 thousand people and the displacement of more than two million others, It has expanded into neighboring countries, but it has been cautious to point out that this does not mean that the threat of terrorist organizations has declined in Nigeria, suggesting that several factors are still eager to exploit them, with the aim of enhancing their viability and continuing their terrorist operations. Strong military strikes against them in the past period, both within n Jeria or in neighboring countries.
Several connotations
The Nigerian presidency was keen to issue warnings that traditional terrorist organizations were retreating in favor of the new ones, which, according to its statement, included a "mix" of Boko Haram elements, criminal groups and terrorists who had moved from countries in North and West Africa, taking advantage of the escalation. The intensity of the armed conflict in Libya and the military defeats of ISIS in Syria and Iraq during the last three years.
This is in line with warnings issued by several directions that the West African region may witness an escalation in the terrorist operations by some organizations that seek to strengthen their influence within their countries in the coming period, in light of the border liquidity that weakens the ability of the security services. To prevent the movement of terrorists within their own countries, or to monitor new terrorist groups being formed by major
Notably, the warnings came on the heels of the widespread terrorist attacks carried out by these organizations, such as the attack carried out by elements of the `` Boko Haram '' in northeastern Nigeria, on July 27, 2019, killing nearly 65 people. , In response to the killing of 11 of its fighters two weeks ago by local residents, which means that the attack was a message to terrorize the local population, and prompted them not to be exposed to members of the group again.
In addition, attacks by the movement against the military continued, most recently the attack on three centers in Borno state in northeastern Nigeria, in early March 2019, by a group loyal to the Abu Musab al-Barnawi faction of ISIS. Parallel to the ongoing terrorist attacks outside Nigeria, Boko Haram fighters are able to cross the border with neighboring countries.It claimed responsibility for the June 13, 2019 attack in northern Cameroon, which killed about 30 people, including 16 soldiers. Cameroon.
Different obstacles
The Nigerian authorities may be able to carry out strong strikes that may diminish Boko Haram's ability to carry out specific terrorist operations, but this does not deny that it still faces several difficulties in inflicting a "final" defeat on the movement, which can be addressed as follows:
Organizational cohesion
Unlike some of the terrorist organizations that have emerged in the past, Boko Haram has managed to strengthen its organizational cohesion after taking control of the split that broke out in August 2016, when the main leadership of the Islamic State decided to overthrow the group's leader, Abu Bakr Shikaw, and appoint Abu Musab al-Barnawi. An alternative, which split the movement into two factions. However, the movement contained the repercussions of the division, especially after it avoided the military clash between the two factions, which agreed to divide the areas of influence and activity, and even coordination in dealing with the pressures they are facing.
2 - exploitation of difficult terrain
In the past, the movement was keen to consolidate its influence in areas difficult to access by the army and police, due to its difficult terrain, and turned those areas into launching points for attacks against civilians and the military, while seeking to reduce the casualties that can be Be subjected to strikes by police and military forces in response to terrorist attacks.
3- The ability to polarize
The movement is still able to attract terrorist elements to join and carry out terrorist operations inside Nigeria and some neighboring countries.It has recruited women, for example, to participate in such operations, such as an attack carried out by a female suicide bomber in the Kaiga Kendjiria region in western Chad, on 14 August 2019. And killed six people.
4 - obtaining a local back
Several trends indicated that the movement was able to establish branches within neighboring countries, with the transfer of leaders and cadres to train the new terrorist elements that were able to attract them to join, in a way that prompted some officials in neighboring countries to warn of the dangers of the movement's success in obtaining a local back Within these countries, this back can help the movement strengthen its human capacity, provide information and hide the elements involved in terrorist operations.
Chadian President Idriss Deby said on June 4, 2019, that there was “local complicity” with the movement, calling for “reporting all those who work with terrorists and their affiliates”, following numerous attacks by the movement within the country. Chad in the last period.
All these factors reveal that the confrontation between the police forces and the military and Boko Haram in Nigeria and the West African countries will continue in the coming phase, especially in light of the movement's determination to continue its terrorist operations, and to exploit internal and regional conflicts to strengthen its influence and expand its control.
The confrontation between the police and the military and the Boko Haram movement in Nigeria and the West African countries will continue as the movement continues its terrorist operations.