Le Monde: As Hefter tightens down, more and more destructive air strikes

Libyan expert Tareq al-Majrissi believes that the stalemate in the retreat of the retired Libyan general Khalifa Hifter's attack on the capital Tripoli will tarnish his image as a strong man and may weaken his political base, which may force him to resort to a potentially dangerous escalation of the capital area.

In an interview with the African section of the French newspaper Le Monde, Majrissi, an expert and researcher at the European Council on International Relations, said that Hifter's forces had not stopped for four months from hitting the forces of the National Accord government defending Libya with the support of most armed groups in the Libyan west.

In an interview with the newspaper's envoy to Tunisia, Frederick Poppin, the Libyan expert said the loss of Gharyan marked a new stage in the conflict because it was an embarrassing setback for Haftar, who wants to regain his honor.

He explained that this new phase began with a counter-attack in the form of air strikes on some neighborhoods of Tripoli and nearby areas, in a sign that Hifter chose to escalate, and therefore if he fails to recover the land soon, and his operations on the ground, it will be dangerous, because the more he lost Aggressive, the conflict has become more devastating.

Al-Majraisi added that Hifter, who has not been able to carry out his counterattack since Gharyan's loss, is resorting to concealing his weakness on the ground by intensifying the devastating airstrikes on Tripoli and Misrata, and more recently on Marzouq in the southwest of the country, which indicates that his retreat will be very devastating for all of Libya.

The expert pointed out that the fact that his troops carried out operations during the truce decided on Eid al-Adha proves that despite his weak position, he is still not enthusiastic to engage in diplomatic action.

East Libyan after Hifter?
Asked about the possibility that the retreat of Hifter's attack on Tripoli would provoke a chain reaction that weakens his position in the eastern region, Al-Majraisi said that Hifter has so far maintained his position because he was seen as the only solution, saving money, weapons and stability. East due to corruption and iron fist led by the retired Major General region.

But if the bodies of young people return to their families in the name of a war that people do not believe in, and in the absence of military success, the image of this strong man will be distorted, perhaps the beginning of a period of emptiness and fueling discontent, which is very dangerous.

This risk is most evident in Benghazi, which has recently been the scene of unrest, with two car bomb attacks against Hifter army officers, a UN convoy attacked and a member of parliament and peace activists abducted, reflecting discontent in Benghazi over a man who is losing control. .

Asked about Haftar's main weaknesses in the east, Majrisi said that the man had disappointed many of his supporters, explaining that some tribes were unhappy with him, especially since their sons, who were recruited into the army, were now dying in Tripoli.

Despite the great indignation, the expert says, Hifter can continue to impose his fragile rule as long as there is no alternative, but in the end if there is no other option offered by the international community feel the people of the East to get a share without fear of retaliation or marginalization, it will As a rival advances, fratricidal battles erupt and the East plunges into chaos.

Al-Majrisi pointed out that Hifter's setbacks in Tripoli will not affect the crescent oil he protects by airplanes, but it may make the local people in the south and west feel that Hifter is not the strong man they believed in, and this will lead them to think about negotiations for other options. What could have repercussions across the country.

As for the Tuareg, the Libyan scholar is likely that they are currently fighting alongside Hifter - although they do not really like him - because it provides them with wages and status, and reminds them of the period of the late leader Muammar Gaddafi who supported him, which for them is better than chaos, especially since they have no other options .

But the issue is different for the Tabu, who have been persecuted in the south by the Arab tribes of Fezzan allied to Hifter. They feel threatened when Hifter's army says he will expel "all Chadians", as if they were not real Libyans, especially as their affairs worsened in recent days because of air strikes in Marzouk. That killed dozens of them.

Fears of conflict in the West
Le Monde asks whether the conflict will reshape political-military relations within the National Accord camp.

Al-Majraisi says that Sarraj is already under pressure, but it is not dangerous.

When asked about the external support Hifter receives from Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, will he run out of military retreat at the gates of Tripoli? The Libyan researcher is likely to continue support fueling the conflict to protect an investment dating back five years, until supporters find other options.