On August 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold talks in France with his colleague Emmanuel Macron.
According to the Kremlin’s press service, during the meeting, the heads of state plan to discuss “the state and prospects of development of Russian-French relations in the political, trade, economic, cultural and humanitarian spheres, and conduct an in-depth exchange of views on pressing international and regional issues.”
“The topics are obvious - this is bilateral Russian-French cooperation, which has a very rich economic content, these are international problems ... this, of course, is Ukraine, and, of course, they will discuss the prospects for continuing work in the Norman format,” the Russian spokesman said President Dmitry Peskov.
The talks between the heads of state will be held at Fort Bregancon, the official summer residence of the French presidents. According to Gala magazine, Macron wants to make “French Camp David” like the residence of American presidents from this old fortress.
- The official summer residence of the French presidents Fort Breganson
- © PASCAL GUYOT / AFP
During a telephone conversation held on July 18 at the initiative of the French side, a schedule of upcoming contacts in various formats was outlined, the Kremlin press service said. So, Macron has already accepted Putin’s invitation to take part in celebrations in Moscow on May 9, 2020 on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of victory in the Great Patriotic War.
“We need each other”
On August 16, Assistant to the Russian President Yuri Ushakov told reporters that in the framework of bilateral relations, Moscow and Paris have good prospects for joint implementation of projects in the field of peaceful atom in third countries.
“France is Russia's long-term partner in the peaceful uses of atomic energy. A strategic document is being implemented to promote cooperation between Rosatom and the Commissariat for Atomic Energy and Alternative Energy Sources of France (CAE), ”said Ushakov at a briefing.
Recall that in May last year, the Russian state corporation Rosatom and KAE entered into a partnership agreement.
Also, Russia and France are preparing to hold a cross-year of regional cooperation in 2021. According to Ushakov, a preliminary agreement has already been reached.
In turn, Dmitry Peskov did not rule out that during the talks Putin and Macron will raise the issue of repatriating the remains of Napoleon’s closest ally, General Cesar Guden, who died from wounds during the Patriotic War of 1812. His remains were recently discovered by archaeologists at the Royal Bastion in the Lopatinsky Garden of Smolensk.
“Of course, if our French counterparts consider it necessary to raise this issue, I’m sure that this topic will be discussed,” the spokesman for the Russian president emphasized.
He noted that the leaders of the two states are conducting "a very frank dialogue, which, if necessary, can expand to any questions, on any topic."
According to experts, France is for Russia one of the most significant European partners in both the political and economic fields.
“Paris pays great attention to relations with Moscow. The fact that both countries are permanent members of the UN Security Council and nuclear powers plays a role. We need each other and can solve many issues together, ”said Sergei Fedorov, a leading researcher at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in an interview with RT.
According to the expert, despite EU sanctions against Russia, the economic relations of both countries are in good condition - a couple of years ago France was one of the main investors in the Russian economy.
“So, the French participated in the Yamal-LNG project, in laying the Nord Stream 2, as well as in a number of other projects,” Fedorov emphasized.
Issues of War and Peace
According to HSE professor Fyodor Lukyanov, Russian-French relations are developing steadily, so they are unlikely to be the main topic of the talks between Putin and Macron.
“Bilateral relations between Russia and France are quite prosperous, stable. Macron is one of the most important politicians in Europe, so the presidents will discuss not only Russian-French issues, ”he said in an interview with RT.
- Vladimir Putin
- © Sputnik / Mikhail Klimentyev / Kremlin via REUTERS
According to Lukyanov, the leaders of Russia and France will discuss the situation in Syria and Libya, as well as in the Middle East.
“Of course, the issue of relations with the United States will certainly be affected, in particular in the context of the termination of the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate and Shorter-Range Missiles,” the expert said.
As Ushakov said earlier, another topic of the meeting between the two leaders will be the situation around the deal on the Iranian nuclear program.
“I would note that Russia and France are united by the common tasks of maintaining the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan and preventing the escalation of tension between Iran and the United States in the Persian Gulf region and in general,” he said.
In addition, Ushakov emphasized, Paris is interested in participating in the summit on Syrian issues together with Russia, Turkey and the FRG. This idea is on the agenda, but so far it is far from its practical implementation. The assistant to the Russian president recalled that the first meeting in this format was held in Istanbul in 2018.
“Now this idea is on the agenda, although, in my opinion, it is still far from practical implementation, but our leaders can discuss it,” he said.
Meanwhile, the head of the Center for French Studies of the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Yuri Rubinsky, in an interview with RT, stated that the situation in the world is far from stable and possible hot spots on the planet will be discussed during a conversation between the two leaders.
“What is happening in the Persian Gulf, in particular in the Strait of Hormuz, concerns everyone. The confrontation between the United States and Iran is explosive. Despite the fact that the relations of Russia and France in this situation, in Tehran and Washington, in general, are different, both Moscow and Paris are aware of the need to cooperate here, ”the expert said.
Rubinsky notes that at the moment, neither Great Britain, led by the new Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who is fully occupied with Brexit, nor Germany, where Chancellor Angela Merkel is preparing to resign, can not say the final word in the dispute about the situation around Iran. France, the expert believes, in these conditions will play an important role in Middle Eastern affairs.
- French military contingent in Mosul. July 2017
- © Fadel Senna / AFP
According to Rubinsky, Putin and Macron will also discuss the consequences of the US trade and technological war with China.
“The consequences of this war are palpable for the whole of Europe. Regardless of what kind of relations Russia and France have with the participants in this conflict, both Moscow and Paris can play their decisive role in resolving this difficult situation, ”the expert believes.
The talks between Putin and Macron will be held on the eve of the G7 summit, which will take place on August 24–26 in French Biarritz.
According to Ushakov, Moscow expects the French president to tell the leaders of the G7 countries about the results of negotiations with his Russian counterpart.
“In the context of the G7, I think, naturally, Macron’s conversation with Putin is of great interest, and we have no doubt about it. This is one of the goals that the Frenchman will share his thoughts on this subject with his partners in the Seven in Biarritz, ”said the Assistant to the President of Russia.
According to Rubinsky, "Macron, as the host of this meeting, will, of course, speak at the G7 taking into account the views of his Russian counterpart on a number of key issues in world politics."
Donbass in Norman format
Another important topic of the meeting between Putin and Macron will be the situation in Ukraine. Recall that France is a country participating in negotiations in the Norman format to resolve the situation in the Donbass.
“The French have repeatedly come forward with a proposal to hold a summit in the Norman format in the near future, including taking into account the change of leadership in Ukraine,” the presidential aide told reporters. He added that Moscow does not object to this idea, but believes that thorough preparations are needed to organize such a meeting.
According to experts, the French president will try to intensify the negotiation process in the Donbass.
“Macron will probably try to convince Putin to make direct contact with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky,” said Fedor Lukyanov.
Yuri Rubinsky, in turn, recalled that in June Macron discussed in detail with the Ukrainian leader the problems of the Norman format - negotiations on the situation in the Donbass with the participation of the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany.
- Emmanuel Macron
- © Koji Sasahara / Pool via REUTERS
“It was recognized that this format is uncontested. Of course, France, led by Macron, is now trying to play a larger role than during the creation of the “Norman Four”, when Germany played a key role in the person of Merkel, ”says Rubinsky.
In his opinion, the French leader will seek an end to the armed confrontation in the Donbass.
“He probably believes that under the current Ukrainian leadership it is more than possible to find common ground on the situation in the south-east of the country. Russia, apparently, is not yet very sure. Apparently, Moscow and Paris will wait for some steps from each other, ”Rubinsky said.
According to Lukyanov, Macron’s ability to resolve the situation in Ukraine should not be overestimated.
“Everything here will depend not on France, but on how events will develop in Kiev, and whether Zelensky can demonstrate that he really controls the political processes in the country and is able to implement his intentions,” the expert believes.
Lukyanov called the politics of Paris in the Russian direction active maneuvering.
“Acting within the traditions of French diplomacy, Macron is struggling to maintain a special relationship with Moscow, since this is one of the principles of diplomacy, which France has been adhering to for centuries. On the other hand, he is very concerned that Russia will not spoil relations with partners in the European Union and the United States, ”the expert said.
Before a trip to France, Putin paid a visit to Italy, recalls Rubinsky. According to the analyst, today this country is experiencing an acute political crisis due to the internal political struggle for complete control over the government.
“The visit of the Russian leader to Italy could be regarded by some political forces as solidarity with the national populists, whose actions could lead to the collapse of the EU. A visit to France suggests that Moscow does not consider acceptable a unilateral bet on one side or another in the European Union. Russia is counting on a dialogue with everyone - and this is exactly what Macron is striving for now, ”the expert concluded.