The new UK prime minister, Boris Johnson, loves his country. Specifically, he wanted the Union to remain in place among the four countries that comprised the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland. Unfortunately, it seems that this will not come true. During his visits to the four countries earlier this week, Johnson confronted a number of demonstrators who opposed his approach of "dying or leaving the European Union." Johnson was unsure of his commitment to leave the EU on 31 October. He made it very clear that he would go out without agreement. In Scotland he was mocked by supporters of secession from Britain, pro-European, and loyalists of Scotland. Scottish Prime Minister Nicolas Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish Nationalist Party, told local media that Johnson did not have the "courage" to confront the Scottish people during his visit.
No plan
In Wales, he was criticized for the lack of a plan to prevent the most severe fallout from Brexit, particularly for farmers in Wales. Wales's prime minister, Mark Druckfield, said Johnson showed "a profound lack of details."
In Northern Ireland, which faces the most serious consequences in the event of an exit without agreement, where the situation portends the establishment of a solid border with the Republic of Ireland, and the emergence of the terrible reality of a return to the dark days of sectarian violence, Johnson received protesters carrying banners, saying: "The EU means borders."
He is also unpopular in this area, compared to crossing the border to travel between London neighborhoods, and he hardly rejects the decades-long conflict that has killed more than 3,000 people. His arrogant attitude towards the Northern Ireland peace process continued during his campaign, when he seemed to know nothing about the complexities of power-sharing arrangements. This is a problem for the prime minister, who is betting that his premiership is pursuing two goals: to complete the Brexit on October 31 as the last date, and to unite his country. Maintaining the Union is crucial for Johnson's party, now officially called the Conservative and Unionist Democratic Party. However, unity is not as resonant as it was among voters in the UK, and this has come true, especially after the Brexit referendum.
"I wouldn't be surprised at all if there was no (Brexit) agreement," said Rob Ford, a professor of political science at the University of Manchester. Ford explains that the strongest support for Brexit comes from English national voters, who have little interest in the union. “They consider it uninteresting. They see it as an obstacle to Britain's secession from the European Union, so they think it is something to be saved. So in England, the most populous and strongest part of the UK, the connection to England first is an interesting one.
On the other side of the question of unity, there is an Irish Republic that prefers that there should be no border between the Irish at all costs. Ultimately, Irish Republicans want to see Northern Ireland unite with the rest of Ireland. A recent study by Northern Ireland in the context of Brexit confirmed that people who knew themselves to be Irish still favor a united Ireland, while those who feel more British are hard-line in their opposition to unity. However, the survey also revealed that over the past 20 years, Northern Irish citizens - more than ever - feel that they are not federal or republican. Although this group may not be an active advocate of a united Ireland, they are beginning to see it as an inevitable consequence of Brexit without a deal.
split
Simply put, "those who already sympathize with Irish unity say that Brexit is increasingly in their interest, while those who are already opposed to Irish unity say Brexit is not right," said a senior colleague at the Center. UK Research in Changing Europe. This would leave Nicholas Sturgeon and her Scottish National Party wide open to becoming the party to stay in Scotland.
In a referendum on independence for Scotland in 2014, it voted to stick to the UK by a margin of 55% to 45%. It was at the time it was described as a "one-time referendum in a generation." Then the issue of Brexit emerged.
When you consider that 62% of Scotland voted to stay in the EU, and that Johnson's conservative party is now preparing to take the toughest form of Brexit, we can understand why Scottish nationalists are optimistic about a second vote on their independence.
Therefore, in Northern Ireland and Scotland, a majority of supporters of survival (56% and 62%, respectively) can retreat from Johnson's unitary view. The picture is somewhat different in Wales, which voted to leave the EU and did not have a strong independence movement. But what is happening in Wales is a strong nationalist movement that has historically hated the Conservative Party and hated Johnson's speech, which wants to come out without a deal. Johnson's biggest problem here is to isolate these voters and effectively hand over more Welsh parliamentary seats to opposition parties.
An example is the recent by-elections in the British and Radneshire region of Wales, when a lawmaker lost his parliamentary seat. Despite Johnson's growing popularity in opinion polls, reports of Johnson's growing popularity seem premature. In the end, we can expect that the first term of Johnson's presidency will be dominated by fighting between nationalist movements. If the first days of his time in power went peacefully, it would mean doubling the English vote, or rather pro-independence. As Rob Ford explains, "for any other group, the English like the 600-pound gorilla can knock down the battle with everyone in the ring and can keep anyone else out of the ring."
It seems unlikely that Johnson's policy of "going out or dying" in the four corners of the UK will likely succeed, at least before Britain leaves the European Union. If elections are suddenly called, which most observers expect in the UK, the union may not be attractive to voters. If the English gorilla expels the rest of the UK from the ring, her younger brothers may decide not to return. It seems that the English voter will not be particularly interested.
A survey revealed that over the past 20 years, Northern Irish feel more than ever that they are not federal or republican.
In Northern Ireland and Scotland, the majority in favor of staying in Europe (56% and 62%, respectively) could retreat from Johnson's unitary view.