Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh said that the country's position on the non-use of the first nuclear weapons could change "depending on the circumstances."
“Until today, India has firmly adhered to the principle of“ non-use of the first ”with regard to nuclear weapons. What will happen in the future depends on the circumstances, ”Singh said.
The statement of the Minister of Defense of India was made against the background of growing tension around the disputed region of Jammu and Kashmir, which recently lost its autonomous status. According to local media reports, troops and police have already been put on alert there. New Delhi was motivated by the possibility of provocations by extremists and separatists, whom, according to India, are supported by neighboring Pakistan.
To a greater extent, such statements from India are propaganda in nature rather than pose a real military threat, because India is surrounded by two nuclear powers, Boris Volkhonsky, associate professor at the Institute of Asian and African Studies at Moscow State University, said in a conversation with RT.
“With Pakistan, it has an approximate parity in the number of nuclear warheads, although the exact number is unknown to either India or Pakistan. According to various estimates, Pakistan may have even a little more. And with China, India does not have parity - Beijing is ahead. This statement is intended to cool the ardor of those who could try to solve the Kashmir problem or some other territorial problems by force, ”the expert explained.
Indian doctrine
The fact that India will adhere to the strategy of not using nuclear weapons first, New Delhi said in 1998 after the nuclear tests of Pokran II.
Then the government of Prime Minister Atal Vajpayee said that the nuclear arsenal acquired by India would be used exclusively as a means of deterrence, while the country itself adheres to a world free of nuclear weapons.
At the same time, New Delhi reserved the right to deliver a “massive blow” in response to an attack by another state.
In 2014, the ruling Indian People's Party election program included a revision of the national nuclear doctrine. Then, in society and among representatives of other parties, this raised concerns that the principle of non-use of nuclear weapons might be the first to be abolished, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who said that the country does not intend to deviate from its principles.
However, some Indian statesmen and military leaders called for the rejection of their obligations. So, the former Minister of Defense of the country Manohar Parrikar called not to “bind himself” with such conditions. The same opinion was expressed by the former head of the Strategic Forces Command, Lieutenant General Balraj Singh Nagal, calling the principle of non-use of nuclear weapons the first "recipe for disaster."
However, according to a senior researcher at IMEMO RAS named after EAT. Primakov Aleksey Kupriyanov, the leadership of India will not review this concept.
“India has become a nuclear state relatively recently - in 1998. And then she adopted the concept of not using nuclear weapons first. At the same time, statements that it could be revised one way or another have been made more than once. High-ranking politicians made statements that India could revise it in favor of not using nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states first. Or the question arose of why such a concept is needed at all, if India is already a responsible nuclear power. But at the same time, the concept itself has never changed. The statement of the current minister is another pebble in the treasury of private opinions of Indian politicians, and it is unlikely to lead to any major change in the Indian nuclear doctrine in the near future, ”Kupriyanov said in a conversation with RT.
Staff of discord
The territory of the former principality of Jammu and Kashmir after the collapse of the British Empire was divided between India and Pakistan. Later, China joined them.
Relations between India and Pakistan over this region have deteriorated sharply after Indian President Ram Nath Kovind signed a decree abolishing the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, which was enshrined in article 370 of the constitution. This decision was approved by the country's parliament.
- Military parade in Srinagar, the capital of Jammu and Kashmir.
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- © Yawar Nazir / ZUMAPRESS.com
Prior to the recent changes, Jammu and Kashmir had autonomous status and their own constitution. This meant that some laws adopted in the country's parliament did not become effective in the state only after they were approved by the local assembly. An exception was made for laws relating to defense, foreign policy and communications - for them a separate vote in the state legislature was not required.
There is no generally recognized border between the Indian and Pakistani parts of Jammu and Kashmir. The two territories are separated by a control line, on both sides of which there are troops of two countries.
Various Muslim separatist groups are active in the region, which, according to New Delhi, receive support from Pakistan. Islamabad, for its part, rejects such allegations.
Calls for de-escalation
On August 16, a meeting was held in the UN Security Council on the decision of India to abolish the special status of Jammu and Kashmir. After him, the Permanent Representative of Pakistan, Malih Lodhi, stated that Islamabad was ready for a peaceful settlement of the dispute with India. At the same time, she stressed that Pakistan will take all steps to "restore justice."
“Our request for a meeting of the Security Council is the first of the actions taken on behalf of the people of the state of Jammu and Kashmir. But this is not the last action. It will end only when justice for the residents of Jammu and Kashmir is restored. We are ready for a peaceful settlement of the dispute around the state, ”TASS quoted her as saying.
At the same time, Malih Lodhi called the actions of India in the region “occupation”.
Earlier, the chief of staff of the ground forces of Pakistan, General Kamar Javed Bajwa, said that the Pakistani military intends to support the population of Jammu and Kashmir.
“The Pakistani army will firmly support the righteous struggle of the people of Kashmir to the very end. We are ready for any action to fulfill our obligations, ”the general emphasized.
- Indian military at the parade in Jammu and Kashmir
- © Amit Gupta
And about. Russia's Permanent Representative to the UN Dmitry Polyansky expressed concern about the possible escalation of the situation and expressed hope that the growth of tension could be avoided. At the same time, Polyansky noted that New Delhi and Islamabad must independently resolve disputed issues without outside interference.
“We stand for a two-way track between India and Pakistan. This is a bilateral issue, ”the Russian diplomat emphasized.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also spoke about the need for de-escalation, who on August 14 held a telephone conversation with Pakistani Foreign Minister Mehmood Qureshi.
“The Russian side emphasized the need to de-escalate tensions and to have no alternative to resolving differences between Pakistan and India on a bilateral basis by political and diplomatic means,” the foreign ministry said.
At the moment, the world community does not risk getting stuck in the conflict between India and Pakistan, said Alexey Kupriyanov.
“So far, no country except China has publicly expressed its dissatisfaction with the actions of India in Kashmir. For example, the American and British press regularly publish critical articles addressed to New Delhi, sometimes quite harsh, but no official statements are made by the politicians of these countries, ”he explained.
At the same time, the political scientist suggested that, given the attempts of the Trump administration to enter Indian markets, it is possible that the United States may somehow intervene in the situation.
“They will not be able to do this by force, but they may try to play the role of a peacemaker. Trump has hinted at this more than once. But India is traditionally opposed to some third country interfering in the Kashmir problem, ”the expert said.
In addition, Alexey Kupriyanov recalled that after reviewing the status of Kashmir, the Pakistani authorities, in turn, made several harsh statements that are in the nature of a threat.
“These are the words that the Indians are preparing provocations, and the Pakistani army is ready to fight back. And the statement that the Pakistani army will never abandon the people of Kashmir in its struggle for freedom. Therefore, the current statement of the Minister of Defense of India is a hint that Islamabad should not be scattered with such phrases, since New Delhi can take them seriously, ”the expert concluded.