"Reformatting the political space": what consequences can the government crisis in Italy

On August 13, at a meeting of the Italian Senate, the upper house of the republic’s parliament scheduled a debate on August 20 on the issue of confidence in Giuseppe Conte. Earlier, the leader of the League party, Matteo Salvini, took the initiative to vote on a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister. He insisted that the vote be held on August 14, but the Senate rejected his initiative. The parliamentarians also opposed the proposal of the Brothers of Italy party, who wanted to organize a vote on this issue on August 20.

The main feature of the situation in Italy is that Matteo Salvini is a member of the Cabinet of Ministers, holding the posts of head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Deputy Prime Minister. His party, the League (formerly the League of the North), has ruled the country since 2018 along with another party, the Five Star Movement. However, last week, Salvini announced his withdrawal from the coalition and demanded the early holding of early elections.

As Elena Maslova, a senior lecturer at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations and International Relations at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, noted in an interview with RT, the subsequent parliamentary actions will decide the outcome of the political crisis.

“Today, the Liga and Five Star Movement parties are part of the coalition, the coalition agreement continues to operate,” Maslova said in an interview with RT.

Split lines

The reason for the start of the next government crisis in Italy was the parliamentary vote on August 7 on the project of the Turin-Lyon high-speed railway. The Five Star Movement intended to block construction for environmental reasons. However, the "League", for which the development of the north of Italy is a traditional priority, opposed. She was supported by opposition parties.

This was followed by mutual accusations of members of the ruling coalition and, as a result, consideration of a vote of no confidence in the Senate.

It is noteworthy that this time many opposition parties, including the center-left Democratic Party, which ruled the country until May 2018, supported the Five Star Movement and blocked Salvini’s initiative for an early vote on a vote of no confidence.

Recall that the coalition of parties “League” and “Movement of the Five Stars” was formed in May 2018. Both parties were united by Euroscepticism and the desire to limit migration. Their positions also converged on some foreign policy issues, in particular, they opposed EU anti-Russian sanctions.

At the same time, in recent months there have been frequent contradictions and public picks between the two populist parties. In particular, the “League” was outraged by the support that the European MPs from the “Five Star Movement” gave to the new head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. Her views on border control are a matter of concern to Salvini. In July, the League and the Five Star Party entered into a dispute over the League’s plans to introduce a flat taxation scale in the country, which the left-oriented “stars” did not like.

Geopolitical Issues

Another area in which the positions of the Party of Five Stars and the League diverged is Italy's participation in the Chinese project One Belt, One Way. In March 2019, the corresponding memorandum was signed by Giuseppe Conte and Chinese President Xi Jinping. In turn, Salvini then expressed concern about the possible "colonization" of Italy by Beijing. It is known that the Italian Minister of the Interior previously often showed his sympathies to US President Donald Trump.

On August 7, when there was just a reason for the split of the ruling coalition in Italy, the newspaper Corriere della Serra published excerpts from an interview with ex-adviser to Trump Stephen Bannon, who is considered close to the leadership of the League. In it, the former White House chief strategist stated that the “marriage” between Salvini and Di Mayo (leader of the Five Star Movement) could soon fall apart, and criticized the latter’s “naivety” in relations with China.

“It is possible that the foreign policy factor played a role,” said Daria Platonova, an expert at the Center for Geopolitical Expertises, in a conversation with RT.

The Italian magazine Formiche notes that the gap between the coalition members occurred amid a series of problems in US-Italian relations.

Rome can not decide whether to buy him the fifth-generation American aircraft F-35 (“League” - for, “Five Star Movement” expresses skepticism). In February 2019, Secretary of Defense Elizabeth Trenta (member of the Five Star Movement) opposed defense spending standards in NATO.

As Reuters noted earlier, despite Washington's lobbying efforts, Rome softened its stance on regulating 5G networks in July. This was achieved by the Chinese companies Huawei and ZTE.

In addition, due to the position of the party, Luigi di Mayo Rim, unlike most Western countries, did not recognize the “government” of Juan Guaido in Venezuela, although Salvini met with representatives of the Venezuelan opposition.

“It can be assumed that members of the ruling coalition are under pressure from globalist circles to cease its existence,” said Daria Platonova. “It was too“ inconvenient ”for the European establishment to illustrate that non-systemic parties can agree.”

Election layouts

According to world media reports, Matteo Salvini de facto began campaigning in early August, embarking on a tour of Italian beaches. There he danced and performed before ordinary Italians. The politician himself calls it a series of public meetings with residents of the country.

Quindi è questo che si intende per # governobalneare # SalviniDimettiti # Papeetepic.twitter.com / q2ioMn7xQf

One of the main reasons that could lead Matteo Salvini to this, according to experts, is the Italians' electoral preferences that have changed over the past year. In the March 2018 elections, Liga received just over 17% of the vote, while the Five Star Movement won over 32%. However, now opinion polls show a completely different picture. According to a public opinion poll conducted on August 9–10 by the sociological service Termometro Politico, about 36% of voters are now ready to vote for the League, and only about 18% for the Five Star Movement. In the May European Parliament elections, the difference between the two parties was less. Then 24% of Italians voted for the League candidates and 17% for the Five Star Movement.

“Matteo Salvini and his Liga party enjoy the serious trust of Italians,” said Daria Platonova. “The main reason is his uncompromising stance on illegal migration.”

However, Salvini’s current support will not be enough to form a government alone. Two parties are mentioned as likely media allies, in the bloc with which Liga has already gone to the 2018 elections. This is the radically right “Brothers of Italy” Georgi Meloni and “Forward, Italy” by Italian politics veteran Silvio Berlusconi. 7.1% of Italians are ready to vote for the “brothers”. For the party Berlusconi - about 6%.

“Salvini is guided by the“ take a moment ”rule, because he wants to take the prime minister’s chair, and today about 40% of Italians support him,” he said.

• Nun at a polling station in Italy
• AFP
• © Filippo Monteforte

In search of partners

In an interview with the Il Giornale newspaper on August 12, Matteo Salvini announced his readiness to form a coalition with right-wing parties.

“I do not exclude anyone. Now it’s time not to exclude, but to include (in the coalition. - RT ) as much as possible, ”the politician said.

If, by the end of August, the parliament passes a vote of no confidence in the government and President Sergio Matarella dissolves the parliament, new parliamentary elections should be held in 70 days.

• Italian President Sergio Mattarella
• Reuters
• © Alessandro Bianchi

This is unusual for a country where parliamentary voting is traditionally held in the spring. The last time the autumn parliamentary elections took place in 1919. Then they led to a large-scale political crisis, the result of which was the coming to power of Benito Mussolini.

In addition to the not very pleasant historical parallels, the autumn elections and the dissolution of the parliament preceding them promise one more problem - the approval of the country's budget for 2020 will be called into question. President Matarella, according to media reports, is unlikely to be happy with this prospect.

Theoretically, he can try to get by without elections by inviting parliamentary parties to form a new government, replacing the League with representatives of other parties.

So, ex-Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, representing the Democratic Party, has already begun to take steps towards the “Five Star Movement”, proposing to create an “institutional government” after the collapse of the ruling coalition, said Il Giornale. However, as The Guardian emphasizes, the formal leader of the “stars” Luigi Di Mayo and the National Secretary of the Democratic Party Nicola Zingaretti oppose such a prospect.

According to Elena Maslova, if the "Five Star Movement" and the Italian Democrats have time to agree, then there will be no elections. And then the "League", which initiated the government crisis, may be the loser.

“Many now say that after the creation of the“ Five Stars ”coalition with the Democratic Party, while Salvini went all-in, there will be a situation in which Salvini will even lose in some way, his plan for early elections will not be realized ", - the political scientist notes.

Foggy prospects

The prospects for a right-wing coalition led by Salvini in Rome are worrying many in Europe. So, Le Monde in an editorial writes that "a similar configuration, unprecedented in Europe since the post-war era, can jeopardize the very essence of the European project." In turn, the former Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta said earlier that Salvini allegedly could withdraw Italy from the EU.

• Flags of Italy and the EU at the residence of the Prime Minister
• globallookpress.com
• © Andrea Ronchini

According to Daria Platonova, European globalists have nothing to fear. The collapse of the government coalition of non-systemic parties will significantly strengthen the position of systemic players.

“At one time, the creation of a ruling populist coalition in Italy demonstrated a reformatting of the European political space and a move away from the“ left versus right ”opposition to the“ people versus elite ”model, the political scientist said. “However, now the old liberal elites are striving to return to the game: through a coalition with either the League or the Five Star Movement.”

According to Elena Maslova, one cannot write off the figure of former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, who may try to return to the prime minister’s chair in the wake of the political crisis. If Salvini is in this chair, then, in her opinion, one should expect "distancing Rome" from Brussels and pan-European projects.

“As far as relations with Russia are concerned, in my opinion, nothing can change dramatically,” Maslova believes. “For almost the entire history, regardless of who was in power in Italy, the course has always been aimed at cooperation with Russia. "