British Prime Minister Boris Johnson demanded that the European Union review the terms of the Brexit agreement, including Brussels’s backstop requirement - Northern Ireland has an indefinite stay in the customs union with the EU after the UK officially leaves this structure. Johnson said this during a telephone conversation with the head of the Belgian government, Charles Michel, who in July was elected chairman of the European Council.

“The UK is ready for negotiations in good faith regarding other options for resolving the issue of the status of the Irish border, but if the EU continues to insist on the immutability of the withdrawal agreement (Great Britain from its composition. - RT ), then we will have to leave it on October 31 without any deal ", - quotes the words of the prime minister, his press service.

The backstop clause was spelled out in the agreement on UK withdrawal from the EU, concluded by the leadership of the European Union and the British government under Prime Minister Theresa May. However, this document was not supported by the Parliament of the United Kingdom. The deputies rejected the agreement three times and this caused the resignation of Theresa May. The new head of the Cabinet, Boris Johnson, announced that he will seek another agreement with the EU on Brexit. Brussels has set a final date by which the UK must agree on the conditions for withdrawing from the European Union - this is October 31, 2019.

Johnson previously admitted Brexit without a deal. However, his position is not supported by many influential British politicians. So, in July, the House of Commons adopted a legislative norm that makes it difficult for Johnson to leave the EU without a deal. Against the "hard brexitis" is the leader of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon.

Brexit price for Ireland

Warning about the possible exit of Great Britain without a deal, Johnson proceeds from the fact that this option of Brexit will be equally dangerous for his country and for the European Union, experts say. They recalled the visit of British Foreign Minister Dominic Raab to North America on 6 August. During this trip, the Foreign Minister of the United Kingdom emphasized that after Brexit his government intends to “quickly move to a wide range of trade agreements”, in particular with the United States, Mexico and Canada. Thus, it is possible that unresolved issues about customs borders with the EU will create serious problems for Europe.

  • Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel
  • AFP
  • © Eva Plevier

“Boris Johnson plans to immediately conclude an agreement with Washington after Brexit and thereby compensate for the damage to the British economy by access to the American market,” Dmitry Abzalov, president of the Center for Strategic Communications, said in a commentary to RT.

Vladimir Schweitzer, head of the department of social and political studies at the Institute of Europe at the Russian Academy of Sciences, said in an interview with RT that “disordered brexit” could create serious political problems for at least one EU member, Ireland.

“The border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK, and the Republic of Ireland is now imperceptible. The island connects many relationships: family, personal, economic. Due to brexitis, they can be torn. This will hit both Ireland and Northern Ireland. It is absolutely possible that the island will again face the problem of terrorism, which, I recall, was once very acute, there were many victims, ”said Schweitzer.

It is because of this, the expert continues, that the majority of the population of the island of Ireland favors back-stop. But Johnson is categorically not satisfied with this condition of the EU: maintaining a unified customs space with Brussels for an indefinite period can cause a flow of illegal migrants to the UK and generally contradicts the idea of ​​Brexit itself.

Political isolation

Most likely, an attempt by Boris Johnson to force Britain to make concessions will not succeed, experts say.

“The EU will not step back a single step. In the European Union, Brexit was adopted without enthusiasm. But everything that could be agreed upon from the EU’s point of view has already been agreed upon with Theresa May, ”said Vladimir Schweitzer.

According to the expert, only a prolongation of the negotiation process is possible, but this option is also unlikely, as the British authorities are tired of the inability to determine brexitis both in the country and abroad.

Schweizer does not exclude the option in which Johnson will eventually be forced to make concessions in Northern Ireland. Businessmen may put pressure on the British prime minister, the expert suggests. In addition, early parliamentary elections could result from voters' disappointment with the results of the Brexit negotiations. And Johnson is not interested in them, since it is not his Conservative Party that can win, but the Laborites.

  • Opponents of UK exit from EU may take advantage of failure in negotiations on Brexit
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  • © Wiktor Szymanowicz

According to Abzalov, opponents of the current Prime Minister have relied on provoking a political crisis. Nevertheless, concessions from the prime minister are as unlikely as concessions from the EU, Schweitzer believes.

“I think that on October 31 the UK will withdraw from the EU without an agreement. Then the fun begins: it will become clear how the country's economy will respond to such a brexitis. There is an assumption that it will collapse sharply. The fact is that the UK will lose all ties with the European Union, and it is unlikely that it will be possible to compensate for them, despite the promises of Donald Trump, ”Schweitzer explains.

According to Abzalov, the European Union as a whole, despite short-term problems, will strategically benefit from the fact that Brexit will hurt the British economy.

“The stronger the fall of Great Britain, the more the British example will be suitable as a deterrent for others who want to leave the EU,” the expert said.

In addition to economic consequences, the UK will be in a certain political isolation, experts say.

“The British, of course, will remain in NATO and will maintain contacts with their European partners. But such communication will be inferior, especially since the Europeans want to make an army autonomous and independent of the United States. So here the British can be sitting on two chairs, ”emphasizes Schweitzer.

Dmitry Abzalov suggests that Johnson understands all these risks, but consciously takes them, not counting on any concessions from the EU.

“Now the situation is like this, any version of the Brexit deal will not pass the UK Parliament, since no one wants to take responsibility for political costs. Therefore, Johnson just wants to wait on October 31, pretending to be in talks with someone there. At the same time, the Prime Minister puts forward proposals that are completely unacceptable to Europeans. As a result, “hard brexit,” which has no alternative left, will look like a necessary measure, and not Johnson’s personal project, ”the expert concludes.