Afghan President Ashraf Ghani opposed the intervention of other countries in the affairs of his country. The head of state made a corresponding appeal on the occasion of the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha on Sunday, August 11.

“Our future cannot be determined by someone from outside in the capitals of our friends, enemies or neighbors. The fate of Afghanistan will be decided here at home. We do not want outside interference in our affairs, ”Ghani quoted the Assosiated Press.

According to the publication, Ghani opposed the attempts of external intervention by holding the presidential election scheduled for September 28.

The statement of the Afghan leader was made against the backdrop of reports of the next, eighth in a row, round of talks between the US and the Taliban. As Reuters reported on August 12, the day before it ended in Doha, the capital of Qatar. According to the publication, the representative of the Taliban, Zabihulla Mujahid, called the talks “useful,” noting that both sides decided to hold consultations on further steps.

  • President of Afghanistan Ashraf Ghani
  • Reuters
  • © Omar Sobhani

The representatives of both parties call the signing of a peace treaty the ultimate goal of the dialogue. At the same time, the Taliban insists on the subsequent withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan. The United States, however, is sending conflicting signals to this effect. Earlier, President Donald Trump announced his intention to withdraw the military contingent of the United States from the Central Asian country. At the end of July, US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo also announced a desire to complete the withdrawal of troops by 2020. In turn, in June, US Special Representative for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad announced that Washington seeks peace, and not the withdrawal of troops.

Kabul vs Washington

As Omar Nessar, director of the Center for the Study of Modern Afghanistan, noted in an interview with RT, official Kabul expresses dissatisfaction with the negotiations between the US and the Taliban, and the reason for the “conflict between the Afghan and US authorities” is the difference in approaches to the Afghan settlement.

“The United States is Afghanistan’s main sponsor and ally, so Kabul cannot directly criticize Washington, but their relationship is entering a tense phase,” Nessar said in a conversation with RT.

According to the expert, the administration of Donald Trump seeks to demonstrate to American voters on the eve of the 2020 elections that they have found a solution to the Afghan issue, allowing them to return their soldiers to their homeland. The preferred path for the Americans is a direct dialogue with the Taliban.

The current Afghan leadership, in turn, seeks to retain power in the country. To this end, it insists on holding the next presidential election on September 28 in Afghanistan. Ashraf Ghani hopes to be re-elected. The leadership in Kabul and in Washington is driven by domestic political considerations, experts say. However, both approaches are fraught with new difficulties.

“The situation can develop in two ways. The first is the path of peace negotiations: agreements between the United States and the Taliban, then between the Taliban and the political forces of Afghanistan, including the forces of the government. However, the Taliban harshly made it clear that they did not intend to enter into negotiations with the current government of Afghanistan. Accordingly, development in such a scenario is excluded. Ashraf Ghani offers a different path - elections, which, in turn, may delay the adoption of peace agreements, ”said Omar Nessar.

As the American newspaper The Washington Post reported on August 1, citing its sources, a possible peace agreement between the United States and the Taliban should include two components. First, the Taliban should move on to direct talks with the government in Kabul. Previously, the Taliban rejected this prospect, calling the local authorities puppets of the Americans. Secondly, the Islamic movement must stop attacking government forces and break all ties with al-Qaeda terrorists **.

Attempts to initiate a direct dialogue have been undertaken more than once, but without much result. In turn, the likelihood of an end to violence between the warring parties in Afghanistan to experts seems very low. The Taliban are strongly opposed to the September elections and have already promised to attack their participants. So, next month the country should wait for the escalation of the confrontation.

Crisis of confidence

This is not the first time that representatives of official Kabul have been critical of the negotiation process between the Taliban and the United States. Back in March, the adviser to the President of Afghanistan on national security issues and the head of the country's Security Council, Hamdullah Mohib, while on a visit to the United States, criticized the plans of the Americans. According to the representative of the Afghan leadership, ethnic Pashtun Khalizad allegedly promoted the idea of ​​creating an interim government in the country, in which he himself had to play a leading role. In addition, Hamdullah Mohib, as the American television channel ABC News notes, accused the United States of negotiating with terrorists.

“Calling this fiction a peace agreement means insulting the word peace,” Mohiba quotes the Sunday Times.

  • Afghan Taliban
  • Reuters

Former Afghan President Hamid Karzai has also spoken negatively about American plans, although, unlike Mohib, he believes negotiations with the Taliban are possible. In an interview with the French newspaper Liberation in early August, he noted that Afghans can no longer trust the United States, especially after President Trump said that he could wipe Afghanistan off the face of the earth.

As military expert Ivan Konovalov said in an interview with RT, Kabul’s position on the role of the United States in the country is becoming increasingly critical.

“The Afghan government does not perceive the negotiations between the Taliban and the United States as some kind of attempt to find a way out of the current impasse, it perceives it as the next game of the Americans, which is aimed at solving not immediate, but their immediate tasks,” RT Konovalov noted.

"Get Out Of Addiction"

Experts interviewed by RT note that even if the US and the Taliban sign a peace agreement, the conflict within Afghanistan will not stop this event by itself.

So, according to Omar Nessar, "peace agreements with the Taliban can bring enormous damage to the United States in the long run."

“If the Taliban enter the legal political system, most ordinary militants can perceive this as surrender, and this in turn can lead to the majority of militants joining other, even more radical groups, including IG ***,” the expert notes.

In turn, Ivan Konovalov, believes that in Afghanistan "the same situation will exist that has existed for over forty years." That is - a constant internal conflict.

“Nothing will change, since in this country there are two main factors for its reunification and restoration: none of the domestic actors has the strength to suppress the rest, and - the international community does not have a common understanding of what the future of Afghanistan should be” - notes Ivan Konovalov.

At the same time, Afghanistan, according to experts, shows even timid, but signs of increased interest in Russia. In June 2019, in Ufa, as part of the X International meeting of high representatives in charge of security issues, six-party talks were held to resolve the situation in Afghanistan. Representatives of both Afghanistan itself and Russia, India, China, Pakistan and Iran participated in them. As part of this event, Hamdullah Mohib first visited Russia.

  • Hamdullah Mohib
  • AFP
  • © Fabrice COFFRINI

According to Omar Nessar, the Afghan government is now interested in attracting new allies, developing international consensus on the future of the country and coordinating peace initiatives of the world community. Otherwise, it risks remaining dependent on Washington’s unilateral steps. However, this requires a more careful approach to the proposals of other countries, including Russia. Last year, the Russian Foreign Ministry held a meeting of the Moscow format of consultations on Afghanistan with the participation of the Taliban.

“The current government of Afghanistan has pretty much spoiled its relations with most interested countries, including Moscow. The only country that currently supports Afghanistan is India. However, the Middle East region is very complex and having just one or two allies is not enough. Regional consensus is needed, ”says Omar Nessar.

* "Taliban" - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of February 14, 2003.

** Al-Qaeda - the organization was recognized as terrorist by decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of February 14, 2003.

*** “Islamic State” (ISIS, ISIS) - the organization was recognized as terrorist by decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of December 29, 2014.