London (AFP)

The gross domestic product of the United Kingdom fell by 0.2% in the second quarter, a few months of Brexit, announced Friday the ONS, which refers to a disruption in the management of stocks of companies facing the departure of the EU .

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) pointed out that the country's GDP had not decreased since the fourth quarter of 2012. In early 2019, companies had to build stocks in anticipation of the Brexit, originally scheduled for 29 March. As this departure was postponed, the companies sold off these additional stocks in the spring and, in addition, reduced their investments.

Despite this decline in GDP in the second quarter, however, the United Kingdom is not in recession as it would require two consecutive quarters of decline. Data for the third quarter will therefore be particularly scrutinized when it is released this fall.

Anyway, this contraction of activity is bad news for the newly installed Brexiter Boris Johnson, who promised that the UK would leave the EU on October 31 - that an exit agreement has or has not been concluded with the EU.

Several strong economic organizations have warned that an abrupt departure from the EU would have negative consequences for the country's economy: the Bank of England predicts that growth will slow down and the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) economic forecast for the government, judge that the country would go into recession in such a scenario.

The problem for Johnson and his team is that the country's business, one of the most prosperous European economies, is faltering even before Brexit.

Commenting on the first half of the year, the ONS considers that "GDP and its components have been very volatile since the beginning of the year, reflecting the changes in activity related to the initial date of departure from the EU".

Many companies had organized themselves thinking that Brexit would take place, as planned, on March 29. But the deadline was postponed twice, because of the House of Commons' refusal to vote the exit agreement negotiated by then Prime Minister Theresa May with Brussels.

- Fall of the book -

The auto industry was particularly hard hit and shut down a number of factories in April because of these successive plan changes, disrupting its planning. Other manufacturing sectors were affected and, in the end, industrial production decreased by 1.4%.

The construction sector also saw its activity decline by 1.3%, as developers are reluctant to embark on the uncertainties that Brexit is putting on real estate prices.

Services, for their part, barely increased their pace: + 0.1%, their smallest increase in three years. This is by far the most important part of the British economy, with powerful sectors such as finance, distribution and transport, which usually provide a thrilling engine for business.

"This decline of 0.2% of GDP in the second quarter is worse than expected and confirms that the good start of the year was only illusion because the growth of 0.5% was allowed by the constitution of stocks Brexit, "said Chris Williamson, economist at IHS Markit.

"These inventories were reduced in the second quarter, which hit the manufacturing sector, accompanied by sluggish demand in construction and a weakened services sector," he added.

The pound has stumbled at the publication of figures, approaching its lowest level in two years against the euro and in two and a half years against the dollar. Around 09H05 GMT (11:05 in Paris), the pound lost 0.11% against the greenback, 1.2119 dollar, and 0.25% against the European currency, 92.38 pence for one euro.

© 2019 AFP