ISIS's efforts to strengthen its influence inside Somalia do not reflect a new trend adopted by the organization to deal with the data imposed by the military confrontations in which it was involved during the last phase. But what is new in this context lies in his attempts to exploit his presence in Somalia to adopt new mechanisms through which he tries to reactivate his project, which fell earlier in both Iraq and Syria.
Undoubtedly, what increased the organization's interest in working to turn Somalia specifically into a starting point in this regard, is that the security situation in the latter can help him achieve this, which explains the remarkable escalation in its activity, both at the level of The operations, or the level of deployment, evidently of concern to international powers, were reflected in the July 29, 2019 statements by US Army Chief of Staff Gen. Joseph Danford that ISIS was defeated, but remains dangerous. It was remarkable that these statements followed the US military strike in northern Somalia a day earlier and targeted the ISIS coordinator in that region, suggesting that Washington seeks to expand the confrontation with the organization to include new countries and regions.
Scaling attempts
During the past period, ISIS has been keen to carry out several terrorist operations, focusing on targeting government interests and state institutions. The organization's leadership believes that these operations contribute to the worsening of the security situation and the escalation of instability in Somalia, which are factors that the organization is constantly trying to exploit to expand within new regions and countries.
The rise of ISIS activity in Somalia has been one of the reasons why the United States has directed specific strikes against its positions, having often focused on Al-Shabaab. These successive strikes resulted in the death of a small number of its cadres and elements, in separate strikes using drones, such as the strike that killed 13 members of the organization in the Ghala Heights on May 10, 2019, and the operation that targeted Abdul Hakim Toukoubit, One of his prominent cadres, who was instrumental in boosting ISIL's efforts to expand its influence within Somalia, on 14 April that year.
Different considerations
Washington's growing interest in directing these strikes against ISIS, particularly in Somalia, is due to several considerations:
I. Navigation targeting:
Several trends have begun to see that, based on the new data imposed by the defeats in Iraq and Syria, the group may be adopting various mechanisms aimed at striking strong responses to those defeats. Here, the group may try to target the interests of the forces involved in the war against it, by getting too close to the global transport links in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab, which could increase its interest in expanding its influence in Somalia in particular.
In other words, the Islamic State may be moving in the coming phase to adapt to the new changes imposed by the collapse of its project in Iraq and Syria, by looking for new ways not only to finance its operations but also to prove its ability to cope with the strong pressures it is facing, under the determination The forces involved in the war against him are to besiege his influence, and to deal powerful blows to his remaining cells in the areas from which he had already come about.
2- Efforts to activate the project:
The organization is currently concentrating on some areas in Somalia, such as Kandala, which is one of the starting points through which it believes that it can reactivate its main project, which fell in Iraq and Syria due to the military defeats suffered and left because of most of the cities of the two countries, where it has become The two countries are confined to some of his sleeper cells, which have not moved to other areas, and are trying to integrate among the social components that exist.
Undoubtedly, this could prompt new elements to move into Somalia, where the group is seeking to re-activate its activity, perhaps more aggressively than the previous five years, which many reports have warned of recently.
3. Forming a New Alliance
ISIL may be using its influence in Somalia to form a new network of alliances in the Horn of Africa in general, which could threaten the interests of the countries of the region, as well as the regional and international powers involved. Here, IS may try to adopt more than one mechanism in the next phase, such as working to strengthen the chances of the division of the «Youth» to break up and weaken, and push one of its factions to join him in the coming period. The group may also try to open channels of communication with other armed groups in the region by exploiting the security conditions experienced by most of its countries.
It is noteworthy in this context, too, that it can not be ruled out that the animosity between «Daesh» and «Al-Shabab» temporary, and may turn to coordination or cooperation at a later stage. Terrorist organizations have always been trying to expand their options, especially if they are under strong pressure from the opposing forces.
The understandings reached in Syria, for example, under which prisoner exchanges or the removal of fighters from some areas were carried out, for example, where ISIS was not far from it, but engaged itself with forces and counter-parties. , Which cannot be ruled out in other countries such as Somalia.
In the light of this, it can be said that the interest in fighting the influence of the Islamic State in Somalia will increase during the next phase, especially as the latter's continued expansion of its scope of activity can pose security threats that do not seem easy in that important strategic region.
• IS is moving to use its influence in Somalia to form a new network of alliances in the Horn of Africa in general, which could threaten the interests of the countries of the region, as well as the regional and international forces involved.
• The hostility between IS and Al-Shabaab cannot be ruled out temporarily, and may turn into coordination or cooperation at a later stage.