The special status of the problem state: what could threaten the aggravation of relations between India and Pakistan

Relations between neighboring states - India and Pakistan - are heating up again. The reason for the mutual claims was a legislative initiative abolishing the special status of the state of Jammu and Kashmir, which has been in force for the past 70 years.

In this regard, the National Security Committee was chaired by the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Shah. Following its results, it was decided to lower the level of diplomatic relations, to suspend trade relations and to revise trade agreements with India. In addition, Indian diplomats are being expelled from the country.

“We will no longer have a diplomatic presence in New Delhi. Their colleagues will also be sent out, ”Dawn quoted the Foreign Minister, Shah Mehmud Qureshi.

In the near future, Islamabad plans to raise the issue of abolishing the autonomy of the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir in the UN Security Council. In addition, a top-level committee has been set up in Pakistan to prepare a response plan - in the legal, political and diplomatic fields.

The state of Jammu and Kashmir located in northwestern India until 1947 was a semi-independent principality led by Maharaja Hari Singh, a Hindu. At the same time, the bulk of the population (about 70%) professed Islam. After the division of British India, Jammu and Kashmir were divided into two parts, one of which went to Pakistan, and the other to India. There is still no drawn border in this region; it runs along the demarcation line of 1949.

Recall that on Monday, August 5, the upper house of the Indian parliament adopted a resolution repealing article 370 of the constitution, according to which the state of Jammu and Kashmir is guaranteed a special autonomous status. In this case, two allied territories are formed - Ladakh, as well as Jammu and Kashmir.

On Tuesday, August 6, the bill was passed by the lower house of the Indian Parliament. Following this decision, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made an appeal. According to him, the initiative, approved with significant support, “will give an impetus to development” to two new territorial associations.

“I thank my brothers and sisters in Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh for their courage and perseverance,” Modi wrote on Twitter.

He emphasized that now the region is "free from fetters and a bright future awaits him."

"Diplomatic offensive"

As noted by the candidate of historical sciences, senior research associate of IMEMO RAS named after EAT. Primakova Aleksey Kupriyanov, the issue of the territories of Jammu and Kashmir is not the first time being considered by the legislative bodies of India.

“This is not the worst moment in the history of Indo-Pakistani relations. In 1951, India planned to abolish the special status of Jammu and Kashmir. Apparently, now the Indian leadership was prompted by this foreign decision to this decision. In particular, a strange emerging progress on the Afghan track between Pakistanis and Americans, ”the expert emphasized.

He noted that Islamabad’s decision to terminate trade relations and revise trade agreements would not hurt New Delhi, since Pakistan’s share in India’s turnover is less than 10%

“You should not wait for military problems. Because what is happening now has taken Pakistan by surprise and is not ready for a military exacerbation. There are currently no aggressive facts that are pushing for a worsening of relations. But Pakistan can launch a diplomatic attack on India, try to enlist the support of other Muslim countries, try to raise the issue at a meeting of the UN Security Council, ”Kupriyanov said in an interview with RT.

According to Andrei Suzdaltsev, Deputy Dean of the Faculty of World Economy and World Politics, HSE, the Indian authorities carried out a “lightning operation”.

“In just a few hours, they canceled the special status for the states of Jammu and Kashmir and placed them under federal control. This ensures that there are no negotiations between Pakistan and India, ”the source said.

The expert stressed that while in Islamabad they are acting restrained.

“I suspect that Pakistan is still in contact with Washington and the EU. Apparently, the provocation of India to a forceful reaction is a coordinated point of view. Let's hope that at this stage the conflict will freeze, ”suggested Suzdaltsev.