Exchange operation country authorization expert "from trade war to currency depreciation war" August 6, 20:50
Regarding the fact that the United States has approved China as a “exchange operation country”, Nomura Research Institute Tonohide Kiuchi Executive Economist said, “The approval of exchange operation countries is usually announced twice a year by the US Ministry of Finance. This measure is unusual because it is certified in the “Foreign Exchange Report”.
On top of that, it was pointed out that the trigger for the approval of the currency manipulation country was that the Chinese renminbi was the first low level in 11 years. We believe that China is trying to devalue the renminbi and increase the competitiveness of its own products as a retaliatory measure, and we believe that it has decided to recognize the currency manipulation country as a further retaliatory measure against the devaluation of the renminbi. " Analyzing.
And, "With the recognition of exchange manipulation countries, the conflict between the United States and China will intensify in the future, and the stage has shifted from a trade war to a currency depreciation war." Criticizing Japan's and Europe's monetary easing policies are aimed at depreciating the currency and seeking further monetary easing from the US FRB, which could result in a global currency devaluation competition. " Pointed out.
On the other hand, with regard to China, “There are not many ways to retaliate, but there are restrictions such as restricting Chinese tourists from traveling to the United States and restricting US companies that have entered China. There is a possibility of taking ".
Furthermore, regarding next year's US presidential election, “China thinks that if President Trump loses in the election, the confrontation will be mitigated and there is a speculation that he wants to make time, but the Trump administration will not make time The Trump administration will continue to take a stronger position in China in order to gain support from the people, ”says the US-China confrontation is unlikely to be resolved. I showed the view.