• Confindustria: "GDP, now the year is compromised". Work: "More busy, but of low quality"
  • GDP, Tria: expected data but growth will resume in the third quarter
  • Istat, unemployment drops to its lowest level since 2012: 9.7%

Share

31 July 2019 In the second quarter of 2019 the phase of substantial stagnation of the Italian economy continued, which has now continued since the second quarter of last year. The Istat detects it in the flash estimate. After the very slight drop recorded in the second half of 2018 and the equally marginal recovery in the first quarter - Istat observes - the GDP in the second 2019 marked a nil economic change.

The statistical institute also explains that the preliminary estimate "necessarily has a provisional nature and is based on an assessment on the supply side indicating decreases in activity for agriculture and industry and a limited increase for the whole of the tertiary sector ".

Inflation: braking prices, but not the shopping cart
Still holds back inflation in July and returns to the level of April 2018, ie 15 months ago. Istat explains this by explaining that in the preliminary estimates for the month ending today, the national consumer price index for the entire community (Nic), gross of tobacco, shows an increase of 0.1% on a monthly basis and 0.5% on an annual basis (slowing from + 0.7% in June).

The further slowdown in inflation in July, explains Istat, is almost entirely attributable to the prices of regulated energy goods and in particular to the tariffs on the protected market for gas and electricity, which have decreased compared to June, while in July last year they had increased compared to the previous month, thus determining the turnaround in the prices of regulated energy goods. The institute in Via Cesare Balbo explains, "the contribution to growth of consumer prices of this positive component thus becomes negative and inflation net of energy, albeit in a context of weak inflation, for the first time since December 2016 returns above general inflation ".

In detail, the deceleration of inflation is therefore due almost exclusively to the reversal of the trend in regulated energy prices (from + 4.3% in June to -3.1%), offset only marginally by the acceleration in prices of Unprocessed foodstuffs (from + 0.7% to + 1.6%) and those of transport-related services (from + 1.5% to + 1.8%).

In July, the 'shopping cart', ie the set of food, care of the home and the person accelerates in the wake of the increase in the prices of fresh fruit and vegetables. Istat explains this by explaining that the annual rate rises to 0.8% from 0.2% in June. In this way, the 'shopping cart' is brought above the inflation referred to the entire basket (which stood at 0.5%).

Eurostat: halts GDP growth in the second quarter
The Eurozone GDP grew by 0.2% in the second quarter for an annualized rate up by 1.1%. This is communicated by Eurostat. In the first quarter the Eurozone product had recorded an increase of 0.4% on a short-term basis and 1.2% on a trend basis.