“Fear of losing control over the situation”: what caused the next aggravation of US-Turkey relations

The Pentagon intends to stop the Turkish military operation in Syria. It is reported by The Washington Post, citing its sources. According to the publication, on August 5, a delegation consisting of senior representatives of the US Department of Defense should submit to Ankara its proposals on solving the problem of Northern Syria. This part of the Arab country is controlled by US-loyal Kurdish forces. However, Ankara considers them involved in terrorist activities in its provinces bordering Syria.

According to The Washington Post, the American proposals include a joint US and Turkish military operation to secure the strip south of the Syrian-Turkish border with a depth of about 9 miles and a length of 87 miles. Allegedly, Kurdish militants will be withdrawn from it and the fortifications created by the Kurds will be destroyed.

However, according to the publication, Ankara has already rejected similar US proposals, insisting on creating a security zone along its border at least 20 miles wide. Also, Turkey does not intend to share control over this area with the United States.

Recall that on Sunday, August 4, Turkish President Recep Erdogan announced his intention to begin a military operation in Syria.

“Our new goal is the east of the Euphrates River. We informed Russia and the United States about the readiness for a new operation in Syria, ”Anadolu quoted the head of the Turkish state.

According to Erdogan, Ankara does not intend to remain inactive at a time when provocations and shelling of border settlements are carried out from Kurdish-controlled territory.

• Recep Tayyip Erdogan
• Reuters
• © Umit Bektas

Conflict of interest

The US Department of State called the possible Turkish military operation in Syria "unacceptable."

“Such unilateral military operations in northeastern Syria are of serious concern, especially when US troops may be nearby while our and local Syrian partnership operations against the remnants of the Islamic State * continue. We would consider any such action unacceptable and thus again urge Turkey to work with us on a joint approach, ”Morgan Ortegus, head of the State Department’s press service, told TASS.

As the head of the political direction of the Center for Research on Contemporary Turkey, Yuri Mavashev, noted in a conversation with RT, the US reaction was completely predictable.

“It is clear that the US is afraid of losing control of the situation. It is clear that in the north of Syria, the United States played its long game for several years. And they do not want to lose their positions there and their allies, ”Mavashev explained. - They understand that if the Turkish armed forces enter, and the United States does not protect its Kurdish allies, then this will be a blow to the image of the United States. But the main reason is the loss of control in Syria. ”

Recep Erdogan announced his intention to send troops to Northern Syria in December last year. However, after a telephone conversation with US President Donald Trump, he postponed the operation. After this, Trump announced his intention to withdraw American troops from Syria.

For several months, Turkey and the United States have been negotiating what a possible security zone in northeastern Syria would look like. However, it was not possible to find a mutually acceptable solution.

• Kurdish militias in Syria
• Reuters
• © Goran Tomasevic

On July 25, Turkish Minister of Defense Hulusi Akar announced that he had informed the United States of Ankara’s readiness for “unilateral steps to neutralize threats” in this direction. The next day, Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced his intention to solve the problem with the Kurdish forces by force.

“We intend to destroy the terrorist corridor east of the Euphrates, no matter what the negotiations with the United States over the establishment of a security zone along the borders of Syria,” the Turkish leader quoted the Hurriyet Daily News as saying.

According to Yuri Mavashev, Turkey and the United States have been trying to coordinate a position on northern Syria since 2014, but have not been able to reach a mutually acceptable solution.

“The US and Turkey have different interests,” says the political scientist. - The United States is interested in a weakly fragmented and, most importantly, Middle East controlled by it. Turks are interested in increasing their role in the region. "The US is heading towards weakening regional centers of power, and Turkey is one of them."

Tangle of contradictions

The aggravation of the contradictions between Ankara and Washington in Syria coincided with a general cooling of relations between the two countries this summer. One of the reasons is the sharply negative reaction of the United States to deliveries of Russian S-400 Triumph air defense systems to Turkey that began in July.

Despite the repeated demands of the Americans, Turkey did not refuse the deal. As a result, the US Department of Defense threatened to exclude Ankara from the fifth-generation F-35 aircraft production program.

Both sides accused each other of violating the allied obligations that Turkey and the United States are bound as NATO members. In addition, Ankara promised a “response” if the United States decides to impose sanctions against it.

Another area in which the contradictions of Ankara and Washington were identified last month is the issue of hydrocarbon production in the Eastern Mediterranean. In mid-July, the EU Council announced the imposition of sanctions against Turkey in response to the exploration activities of Turkish vessels offshore Cyprus. Ankara explains this activity by the desire to ensure the interests of the Turkish community of Northern Cyprus. This territory since 1974 is controlled by the Turkish armed forces. Also, Turkey considers part of the territorial waters around Cyprus to be its own.

In early July, the US condemned the actions of Turkish courts, which were exploring natural gas deposits on the Cypriot shelf. In a special statement, the State Department called this activity a “provocative step."

• US Department of State Building in Washington
• Reuters
• © Joshua Roberts

On July 12, the US House of Representatives approved the draft defense budget for 2020, which proposes to lift the arms embargo on the Cypriot authorities. The United States introduced this restriction in 1987. In turn, Recep Tayyip Erdogan called this initiative a “pointless threat” to US-Turkish relations, and one of the most ardent supporters of the lifting of the arms embargo against Nicosia, Democratic Senator Robert Menendez, “the enemy of Turkey.”

Another painful topic in US-Turkish relations was Turkey’s demands to extradite the alleged organizer of the coup attempt in 2016 - Fethullah Gulen. In July, Ankara provided the United States with additional information in the extradition case. However, the US side considers Gulen’s guilty evidence insufficient.

Crisis of confidence

According to experts interviewed by RT, Americans are in a difficult position, because they do not want to lose an ally who has the largest army in the region.

“This is a valuable ally,” Viktor Nadein-Raevsky, senior researcher at IMEMO RAS, said in a conversation with RT. “But on the other hand, self-will, in the opinion of the United States, should absolutely be punished.”

The “arbitrariness”, according to the expert, was the purchase of S-400 systems from Russia. Thus, Ankara demonstrated that it independently makes decisions regarding its own national security.

In turn, Yuri Mavashev notes that the problems that have accumulated in relations between Turkey and the United States, "are systemic in nature."

“They have a whole list of problems, and most importantly - all this is superimposed on mistrust. When there is trust, even very complex issues can be resolved gradually, but it just does not exist, ”the expert believes. - Turks are judged not by words, but by deeds. For this reason, it can be predicted that over the next five to ten years it will be extremely difficult to overcome this crisis of mistrust. ”

According to Mavashev, the situation is aggravated, among other things, because of the position of the US Congress - congressmen take a more implacable position in relation to Turkey than Trump.

According to Viktor Nadein-Raevsky, neither Washington nor Ankara are ready to finally break off relations. He noted that Turkey remains largely dependent on the supply of US military equipment to ensure its own security.

However, after an unsuccessful coup attempt in 2016, the Turkish authorities carried out large-scale purges against the pro-American part of the officers, the expert notes. As a result, the position of proponents of the orientation toward Washington weakened. This coincided with fundamental changes in the priorities of Turkish foreign policy.

“In the future, relations between the United States and Turkey, at least under Erdogan, are unlikely to improve,” Nadein-Raevsky believes. - The European vector of politics also did not justify itself. The Turks began to focus more on Asian partners, Muslim countries and Russia. ”

* “Islamic State” (ISIS, ISIS) - the organization was recognized as terrorist by decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of December 29, 2014.