Since July 24, the Conservative Party has elected the former foreign minister, Boris Johnson, as its president, and with the majority in the House of Commons, it means that Johnson will also be the country's prime minister and will be responsible for the difficult task of The completion of Britain's exit from the European Union after more than two years of the British vote to get out of the Union of the countries of the continent of old.
Despite the controversy surrounding Johnson's rise, given his character and controversial positions, and his decisive role in pushing the British to vote to leave the union, the choice of Boris Johnson is no surprise, the most logical outcome of the British policy since mid-2016, Is unlikely to differ from his predecessors to a large extent, and despite his strong criticism of the government of former Prime Minister "Teresa Mai" because of its failure to complete the exit from the European Union, Johnson is unlikely to have additional tricks to reach a satisfactory exit agreement, including Means that the new prime minister will find Probably himself in the same narrow circle that eventually broke the previous government.
Boarding trip
Johnson's political rise was largely tied to the bricast. It started in 2013 when former British Prime Minister David Cameron promised a referendum on Britain's exit from the EU if the Conservative Party won the next election. Cameron kept his promise and held the referendum in June 2016, With two obvious options, either staying in the EU or exiting.
| David Cameron (right) and Boris Johnson (center) |
Johnson immediately adopted an advocacy campaign against Cameron, who called for survival. Johnson used dubious assumptions to promote the British exit, such as his claim that Britain paid £ 350m a week to the EU, and that the money could be used instead. In order to fund the services of the British, Johnson's campaign has already succeeded in attracting older British voters who have been functionally affected by accession to the EU and its immigration policies. In the end, Johnson decided to fight for him after nearly 52% of Britons voted for exit from the EU, and the government began to prepare for the exit.
Prime Minister "Cameron" resigned immediately after the referendum, and it was natural for Johnson to win the seat in the end, but unlike a bear with his former partner in the campaign Brixt and then Justice Minister "Michael Goff" led to the collapse of his dreams and go to the Prime Minister forced to the Minister of Interior Teresa Mae, who appointed Johnson as foreign minister, did not last long, resigned after only two years, in protest against the Prime Minister's handling of the exit file.
For three years, May failed to draft an agreement regulating Britain's exit, reconciling the conditions of British lawmakers with EU regulations, and failed to pass its plan through the House of Commons to the British exit on at least three occasions, most recently in March. To resign in the end to give way to Johnson, who pledged to complete Britain's exit from the European Union before the deadline set on October 31 this year, even if forced to implement the exit without agreement with the Union, but the task of "Johnson" In that it will not be easy considering the loan In the wake of the sudden crisis in the relationship with Iran, and the growing criticism of London's policies in the Middle East, especially with regard to British arms sales to oil-rich Gulf states, in conjunction with growing criticism To silence the British capital about human rights violations there.
Bricks
The importance of reaching an agreement between Britain and the EU on the bricast is that the organization of the first exit of the Union would reduce the economic consequences of the exit, which will affect Britain in the first place and the EU itself to a large extent, but the problem is that the Union does not want Britain has given easy and easy exit to the country without major economic repercussions, in light of the increasing calls for the departure of the Union in countries such as Italy, Poland and Hungary, where the Union fears that the departure of the second largest economy in the bloc without sufficient consequences may encourage the rest of the members to do the same thing soon.
The main issue that exacerbates the differences between the two parties is the question of the Irish border; that is, the regulation of the border between Britain's Northern Ireland Province and the Republic of Ireland, a member of the European Union. In the absence of a desire to impose borders on the division of the island of Ireland, the EU calls for Britain to remain part of the European Customs Union for an indefinite period, a proposal rejected by Britain because part of its territory will remain linked to the Union, as well as other differences on the regulation of economic relations between Britain And the Union after the exit, and in the midst of these differences and with the failure of the British themselves to reach a formula on the agreement; Johnson "came to power with promises to resolve the crisis that his predecessors failed to resolve.
Despite the hawkish "Boris" speech and his threat to go out without agreement, Johnson's first plan is to reach an exit agreement with the EU, meaning that he has to make a proposal on the Irish border with the approval of the Europeans and the British, which is unlikely to get progress Considering that the various fronts are sticking to their positions on this issue. The alternative plan for Johnson would then be the consumption of time until October 31 in order to secure an automatic exit from the Union without an agreement.
But a parliament whose majority is opposed by the majority of its legislators to break out of the union without an agreement is unlikely to allow this to happen, leaving us with the possibility of a vote of no confidence from Johnson, a move that requires an alliance between the Labor-led opposition and the Some members of the ruling Conservative Party itself, and although difficult, it is not the scenario is unlikely because the current government to a weak majority by only three seats and the presence of several conservative deputies who are likely to oppose the exit without agreement, but in return will require considerable discipline from members of the opposition, Which is relatively difficult Given that some Labor legislators were constituencies supporting the departure of the European Union.
With Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbin hard to secure the votes needed to lead the government, early elections remain the closest option
If the House of Representatives fails to withdraw confidence from Johnson, that will give a boost to the prime minister's plan to implement a unilateral exit from the Union. If the council succeeds in withdrawing confidence, the legislators will have 14 days to appoint a new prime minister or call for early general elections, With Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbin hard to secure the votes needed to lead the government, early elections remain the closest option. In this scenario, the only option for the caretaker government is to ask the EU to extend the exit deadline.
On the other hand, Johnson has his options to face the scenario of overthrowing him. Under the law, the prime minister can petition the Queen to close the Parliament and suspend its meetings until the BRICEST deadline. Johnson did not rule out this option if legislators opposed his vision of exit. On July 18, the House of Commons passed a motion to allow the parliament to convene if it were closed with the support of 17 conservative deputies, meaning that Boris would face a major legal problem if he did.
In addition, Johnson also has personal reasons for hesitation before embarking on the parliament's suspension plan. Although this move will ensure that his exit plan is passed without a hustle, he may be paying a price for it. Lawmakers will withdraw confidence from the prime minister after the parliament returns. The most logical response to their exclusion from a fateful issue such as the bricast, and perhaps no new election will bring him back to his favorite seat any time soon.
In order to get out of this clash with lawmakers, Boris Johnson can use his public relations skills to put forward a plan similar to the May plan with improvements and to bet that as the deadline approaches, lawmakers will eventually have to accept a plan, It is unlikely to put the bricast in a referendum again, but this option could cause a big setback for the Conservative Party as most of the party's supporters are supporters of the EU exit. In the game of these complex options, Johnson's best choice is to persuade MPs To accept the pre-plan (4) could argue that it was legislators who hampered his exit plan, but that option would not be without risk to the Conservative Party, with the possibility of losing the party to power given its poor performance in the recent European Parliament elections In May.
Iran .. Boris soft diplomacy
Boris previously defended the nuclear deal with Iran at a time when the deal was under attack from the US administration before Washington formally withdrew from it last year.
Although the brichest is the most decisive and decisive case in Johnson's first political term as prime minister of Britain, the first real test of his policy will be to manage his country's unanticipated diplomatic crisis with Iran, a crisis that broke out on July 19 when Tehran announced the detention A British flag carrier in the Strait of Hormuz, according to analysts, as a response to the London days before the detention of an Iranian tanker in Gibraltar claimed to have been destined to Syria on the grounds that they violate the EU sanctions on Damascus.
In this regard, conventional wisdom emitters (5) say that Johnson will try to avoid any scenario that could plunge the kingdom into a broader confrontation in the Middle East. Britain's bias towards the more aggressive US strategy of confronting Iran in the collapse of the And the position of the Middle East on the brink of an inevitable military confrontation that is not in London's favor. Johnson's early remarks after his assumption of office were his propensity for such an approach. The prime minister stressed that the military conflict "will not solve any outstanding issues, "He said.
Johnson's previous record during his term as foreign secretary (July 2016 - July 2018) reinforces this scenario as well. Boris previously defended the nuclear deal with Iran at a time when the deal was under attack from the US administration Before Washington formally withdrew from it in May last year. Johnson also visited Iran himself during his term as foreign secretary in 2017 on a diplomatic visit, which has not achieved any practical results. Johnson's old political record - in 2006 - According to the British Telegraph newspaper that he did not mind at a time of time T that Iran has nuclear weapons, a position that does not seem to be the prime minister will be able to adopt under the current US administration.
Apparently, there are many facts that push Johnson to adopt a more diplomatic approach to dealing with Iran. First of all, Britain does not have much to gain from rushing into a new military conflict in the Middle East even if this conflict is fought under the banner of protecting (6) clearly indicate that energy security in Britain has become very limited in the Middle East, where the country receives more than 50% of its imports of crude oil and 60% of its gas needs from Norway, while Mainly on Russia, Sweden and the Netherlands to obtain their oil derivatives, p Coal comes mainly from Russia, Colombia and the United States. London imports electricity from France and the Netherlands, meaning that Britain's energy security depends primarily on its European neighbors, not on the Middle East, except for liquefied natural gas (LNG). From Doha, supplies that could be greatly disrupted if Iran disrupts the Straits of Hormuz or if a military confrontation erupts in the Gulf.
At the same time, Britain is aware that the cheapest way to secure transit around the Straits of Hormuz is to reach diplomatic agreement with Iran itself, where London, burdened with the economic problems associated with exiting the EU, can not afford the high cost of insurance on ships in the Straits, While the United States calls on Europe to take responsibility for securing the passage of its carriers in the strait, London recognizes the limited naval military capabilities currently in place. The Royal Navy has only 19 escort ships, a frigate and a destroyer, of which only nine ships are in operation to cover British data all over the world, and while London has a naval base in Bahrain, they can not retain the more than one frigate without affecting their obligations in other places around the world.
Boris feels the deteriorating situation of the Royal Navy well, so he has earlier pledged to increase the defense budget for the manufacture of more ships. But with this unlikely to happen soon, Boris's favorite approach to resolving the tanker crisis with Iran is simply what his father said Former conservative politician Stanley Johnson, told an interview with Press TV, the English-language network of Iran, that the two sides had to reach an agreement that they would both launch the oil tanker he was holding and then engage in diplomatic talks. In implementing this intuitive solution, a It is not as easy as it seems.
The dilemma is that Britain's Johnson, who is leaving the EU today, does not simply tolerate angering the United States at the same time. One of the top priorities of Boris Johnson is the signing of a free trade agreement with the United States to move Britain economically away from Europe toward Washington , Which means that London may have to make concessions to Trump in its Middle East policy, including a tougher stance with Tehran, and perhaps respond to US demands to increase its forces in Syria so that the latter can reduce the number of its troops there in line with Trump's decision to leave the arena S Aryan.
In this regard, Tehran appears to have concerns that this is the path that Johnson will eventually take. The media associated with the Iranian regime portrayed the new British prime minister as a weak person linked to Tramb and exaggerating the formal resemblances between the two men. All of this is that Johnson will face a more urgent choice than Brikast at the moment, either sticking to the diplomatic policy with Tehran and trying to use his relatively good relations with the US president to persuade him to ease sanctions on Tehran and pressure the latter to return to negotiations. Or else, A choice of political volatility and bias toward US policy in the end, an option that Johnson himself did not rule out during his remarks to the Jewish News, where he said he was ready "to re-impose sanctions on Iran" and that he was "committed to restricting sabotage activities in the region" , But he still holds on to diplomacy at least for now.
Ruler of the Eighth Emirate
During his tenure as mayor of London between 2008 and 2016, Boris Johnson showed a strong commitment to strengthening Britain's relations with the Gulf states. Johnson then told the Gulf states that there was "great room" for buying real estate in London, , In reference to the seven emirates that make up the United Arab Emirates. In April 2013, the mayor of London led a business mission in the Gulf to attract investment to the British capital. He received pledges from Doha to increase its £ 20 billion investment in the English capital and boost the British-Qatari business forum.
During his visit to the region in July 2017, Johnson stressed that "Britain's close and historic friendship with the Gulf states has become more important in today's turbulent world," he said, reiterating his commitment to relations with the Gulf states. The prime minister at the time pledged that "the security of the Gulf states is the security of Britain." Johnson also expressed his commitment to defending the Saudi war in Yemen, stressing that Britain believes that Riyadh "is committed to abide by international law and human rights." Recently, Recommended in 2016 to allow the supply of British bombs to Saudi Arabia after Days of a Saudi air strike on a potato factory in Yemen that killed 14 civilians.
On the other hand, during his tenure as foreign secretary, Boris argued that Britain was seeking to sign free trade agreements with all its Gulf partners, a trend stemming from Johnson's view of the benefits of leaving Britain for the European Customs Union, allowing it to adopt an independent trade policy and conclude agreements Commercialization in commercially emerging regions around the world. In order to achieve this, Britain agreed during Johnson's tenure as foreign minister to initial agreements to invest 65 billion pounds in partnership with Saudi Arabia, and approved 200 projects worth 11.5 billion pounds sterling in the UAE.
Johnson, as prime minister, is expected to continue to give priority to trade and investment in the Gulf, especially if Britain is forced to leave the EU without an agreement. Free trade agreements will become an urgent priority. Johnson's policy will complement May's policy and its international trade minister "Liam Fox," who was already working to reach trade agreements with the Gulf States, and entered into serious negotiations with the UAE to reach a free trade agreement in February.
Britain is likely to continue the policy of recent British governments to turn a blind eye to violations by the Gulf states of human rights and ignore them for democracy in return for the continued flow of funds
In order to attract the largest possible amount of Gulf money, Johnson is expected to continue the policy of selling arms to the Gulf countries, especially since these countries are the first purchaser of British weapons in recent years. For example, British arms sales to Saudi Arabia accounted for about 49% Total arms exports between 2012 and 2017, with an annual value of around $ 1.4 billion. Britain has licensed $ 6 billion (about 4.7 billion pounds) worth of arms sales to Saudi Arabia since the kingdom began its intervention in Yemen in 2015.
However, this commercial approach to Britain's relations with the Gulf states will not come without a price. Unlike London's traditional policy, which often links trade agreements with tariff cuts to commitment to democracy, human rights and environmental standards, Britain's policy is likely to continue. غض الطرف عن انتهاكات دول الخليج لحقوق الإنسان وتجاهلها للديمقراطية مقابل استمرار تدفق الأموال، وسيتسبّب ذلك على الأرجح في انتقادات برلمانية وحقوقية لنهج الحكومة، وربما محاولات قضائية لعرقلة صفقات الأسلحة مع دول الخليج، كماOccurred on 20 June when the British Supreme Court found that the government's export licenses to Saudi Arabia were illegal and violated human rights, but the government would try to counter these attempts and eventually push forward trade relations.
Britain's pro-Western autocratic government will put the English state in touch with many regional fault lines. On the one hand, London will fight not to engage in the two-year Gulf Cooperation Council crisis in an effort to ensure the flow of economic benefits from both sides of the crisis, And Johnson's soft diplomacy with Iran may not appeal to many of Britain's Gulf allies, which could force London to choose between taking A tougher stance towards Tehran or acceptance of dealing with major obstacles in its highly important economic relations with the Gulf Arab states.
The government of Boris is expected to abandon Britain's traditional position in support of the UN-backed UN-backed government
As is evident in Britain's projected policies toward the Gulf states, it is likely that London will choose political approaches based on supporting authoritarian stability in other conflict theaters in the region, whether in Algeria, Sudan or Libya. Johnson will give priority to stability and to courting his Arab allies Nascent or revolutionary regime in the region.
The repercussions of this policy are likely to emerge in Libya in particular, as the government of Boris is expected to give up Britain's traditional position in favor of the UN-backed UN-backed government towards a position closer to the American tilt to support General Hafer, or at least turn a blind eye to his military adventures, With Martin Reynolds, Johnson's former special secretary at the State Department, as the current British ambassador to Libya, the Mediterranean is expected to rank high in the priorities of the next British policy in the Middle East.