In a few years, half of Ukrainians can leave the country. This was stated by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic Pavel Klimkin, speaking before the participants of the hostilities in the Donbas.

“This is what is happening now, when millions of Ukrainians abroad, I think that in a few years something like this: half of Ukrainians will be here, and half - there,” the Observer portal quotes Klimkin.

The head of Ukrainian diplomacy noted that the number of Ukrainians living abroad is estimated at 20-21 million people. Also, according to him, if a census was conducted in Ukraine, its results would have surprised many.

“When you see the census results, everyone will have these eyes!” Klimkin promised.

  • Pavel Klimkin
  • globallookpress.com
  • © Olena Khudiakova / ZUMAPRESS.com

Difficult count

Earlier, the Ukrainian portal Focus, with reference to the Foreign Minister of Ukraine, reported that no more than 25-30 million people could live in the country now. In turn, the TV channel NewsOne notes that, given the volume of consumption of essential products - bread and flour, analysts estimate the current population of Ukraine at 25 million people.

According to the recommendations of the UN, the census of the state’s population should be held once every 10 years, but in Ukraine it was last held in 2001, when 48.5 million people lived in the country. According to estimates of the State Statistics Service, as of July 2019, the population of Ukraine was 42.03 million people, but this figure is gradually decreasing under the influence of adverse demographic factors.

In May of this year, even before the inauguration of Vladimir Zelensky, his representative Ruslan Stefanchuk stated that one of the priorities of the new president’s work would be to conduct a census in the first 100 days of work. The previous leadership of the country has repeatedly postponed this procedure, the last time - in 2015.

However, until now the new president has signed only the decree “On some measures to improve the access of individuals and legal entities to electronic services”, where only preparation for the “electronic population census” is mentioned. A trial census is scheduled for December in some districts of Kiev and the Kiev region.

As Alexander Gushchin, associate professor of the post-Soviet countries department of the RSUH, in a conversation with RT, the refusal of the Ukrainian authorities to conduct a census of the population is largely related to the “financial issue”.

“Some experts point out that there is a political aspect here, because when no one understands how many people there are, there are certain possibilities for different manipulations,” Gushchin added.

In turn, political analyst Vladimir Kornilov believes that the Ukrainian authorities deliberately avoid conducting a census.

“The absence of a population census for almost two decades is an indicator of the state’s failure,” Kornilov said. - In Ukraine, they have long been afraid of real numbers, since this can reveal dreadful data for the country. After all, all the stories that there are 30-40 million citizens in the state are hardly true. ”

RT sources in Ukrainian political circles hold a similar point of view.

“Nobody conducted a population census in order not to demonstrate the catastrophic situation in the country. In addition to negative demographic indicators, in the past five years, people are leaving en masse. I think that in Ukraine there are no more than 30 million inhabitants, of which about 12 million people are of working age. This is the same as pensioners. After 10 years, there will simply be no one to support the country, ”says a RT source from the Popular Front party.

Population outflow

Last year, Olga Krentovskaya, First Deputy Minister of Social Policy of Ukraine, emphasized that the outflow of the working-age population from the country "threatens the economic security of the state."

  • Woman with a Ukrainian passport
  • Reuters
  • © Shamil Zhumatov

As evidenced by the results of a study of the sociological group “Rating”, commissioned by the International Republican Institute (IRI) in June 2019, 36% of Ukrainians thought about emigrating in order to find work abroad. At the same time, in the age group from 18 to 35 years old such respondents turned out to be 60%.

Among the countries where Ukrainians are planning to move, Poland (46%), Germany (30%) and the Czech Republic (25%) are leading. Poland currently accepts the most Ukrainian migrants - according to Bloomberg estimates, in the first quarter of this year their number was 400 thousand people or 2/3 of all foreigners registered in the republic who pay social contributions. In total, according to analysts at Bloomberg, there are 1.5 million Ukrainians working in Poland. At the same time, a significant part of them is illegal. Last year, Warsaw issued almost 900 thousand visas to Ukrainians.

The black labor market in other European countries is being actively mastered by immigrants from Ukraine. So, as Radio Prague reported in July, Ukrainians accounted for 80% of all illegal immigrants in the Czech Republic.

Also in July, experts from the RANEPA and the Gaidar Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences in the study “Monitoring the Economic Situation in Russia: Trends and Challenges of Socio-Economic Development” noted that in April-June 2019 Ukrainians were the leaders among all migrants who entered Russia the increase was 16.1 thousand people. Despite earlier information about a decrease in the influx of immigrants from Ukraine, the scientists called it one of the main migration donors in Russia, along with Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Armenia. In April, Pavel Klimkin declared that 3 million Ukrainians live in Russia, calling it a “sad situation.”

According to Vladimir Kornilov, the policy of the new president, Vladimir Zelensky, will only strengthen this trend.

“I still do not see any prerequisites for this trend to change,” Kornilov notes. “The plan recently introduced by the Zelensky team, including mass privatization, in particular, lifting the moratorium on the sale of land, will only encourage Ukrainians to go abroad in search of a better life.”

According to Alexander Guschina, the reason for the outflow of the population of Ukraine is simple: people do not see the prospects for the development of the country.

“A significant part of the able-bodied young and active population is really leaving,” the expert notes. - And not because they do not like the country, they simply do not see here the prospects for their own development, for earning money and personal growth. Mostly literate, creative, educated, or able-bodied people who leave Ukraine take part in simple auxiliary work in Poland, the Czech Republic, and other countries. ”

"Catastrophe for the economy"

Last year, Pavel Klimkin said that about 100 thousand people leave Ukraine every month. Then he evaluated the situation as "catastrophic." However, in March of this year, he already called the outflow of the population from the country “mega-challenge”, but not a disaster. Now, according to Klimkin, there is a positive aspect to this process.

So, in a speech before the "veterans" of the ATO Klimkin said that the Foreign Ministry is trying to rely in its work in other countries on the Ukrainian diaspora. Often, he said, citizens who went abroad are the only resource for promoting the interests of the country in other regions of the world. In July, as reported by the agency Ukrinform, Klimkin even spoke about the formation of a kind of “united transborder nation - the global Ukrainians.”

Positively perceive the outflow of the population in the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance. So, according to information released by the ministry in July, the outflow of labor abroad reduced unemployment in the country and led to an increase in wages — in June this figure increased by 7% compared to May. According to the Ministry of Finance, 3.2 million Ukrainians are constantly working abroad, which is 18% of the total economically active population of the country.

However, according to experts, there are no real reasons for optimism about the Ukrainians leaving the country abroad.

“The outflow of the population is already affecting the socio-economic development of the country. Paradoxically, but now in Ukraine, despite the massive closure of enterprises, there is a shortage of skilled and even unskilled labor, - says Vladimir Kornilov. “This not only hinders the development of the country, but also destroys the prospect of turning Ukraine into a state with a developed economy.”

The expert emphasizes that in this way the development of the economy is being held back, since, given the shortage of labor resources, even Western investments, which the Kiev authorities are relying on, will not help the country.

“Population outflow is a disaster for the country's economy. In Ukraine, there is no one to pay taxes and maintain retirees, go to restaurants and go on holiday around the country. After 10 years, the state may become bankrupt, even if it is possible to completely get rid of corruption. Frightens that in Ukraine there are no programs for the retention of labor resources. When this question is paid attention, it will be too late, ”says the source of the RT in the Radical Party.

According to Alexander Guschyn, this trend can change only with a radical restructuring of the economic policy of Kiev.

“The outflow of the population in Ukraine actually means that the country will continue to de-industrialize, the expert notes. - It will act as an agricultural appendage of other countries. The only thing that can prevent this is the creation of jobs and the policy of healthy protectionism, but in conditions of total dependence on the West, there is little hope for that. ”

* Media, recognized as a foreign agent by decision of the Ministry of Justice of the Russian Federation of 05.12.2017.