Looking for a candidate: why Democrats can not decide on an opponent to Trump in the presidential election of 2020

In Detroit, the regular debates among the participants of the Democratic Party's primary, which are fighting for the right to become a presidential candidate in the 2020 elections, have come to an end. The field of candidates still remains extensive - 21 politicians took part in the second round, which is why the debates were held for two days, and the candidates were divided into two groups.

Socialism and new age

On the first day, a group of politicians came on the scene, among them were senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, popular among American youth. With them in conjunction there were a number of candidates whose support level does not exceed 5%, according to public opinion polls. For most of the evening, Sanders and Warren, left-wing politicians, defended their vision of affordable health care reform from the attacks of other candidates who criticized these proposals as too radical.

• Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren
• Reuters
• © Lucas Jackson

The performance of Marianna Williamson, author of popular self-development books in the US, was unexpected. The follower of the philosophical and religious trend of the New Age spoke of "dark psychic energies" and "deep toxicity." Her approach is clearly interested in American voters - The Washington Post newspaper, citing data from Google Trends, reported that Williamson was leading in terms of search queries, ahead of Sanders and Warren.

She managed to attract the attention of mainstream media.

• © Washington Post

“An important evening for Marianna Williamson at the debate of the Democratic Party,” wrote The Washington Post.

• © VICE

“The candidacy of Marianna Williamson is not just some kind of a joke,” says the Vice publication, urging Democrats to pay attention to her campaign.

Gevorg Mirzayan, an associate professor at the Department of Political Science at the Financial University under the Russian government, reminded RT that there is a proverb in the US political circle: “Anyone who wins the primaries can lose the election.”

“At the primaries, they are more likely to vote for radical left or right candidates, but they have little chance of winning the general elections, because non-party voters, who usually do not vote for radicals, decide there,” the expert said.

• Writer Marianna Williamson
• Reuters
• © Lucas Jackson

Biden in the fog

On the second day of the debate, the main heavyweights on the stage were former Vice President Joe Biden and California Senator Kamal Harris. The latter managed to seriously strengthen her position in the presidential race after, during the June debates, she, as a representative of ethnic minorities, recalled the controversial views on racial policies that Biden followed in the 1970s.

• Joe Biden and Kamala Harris
• Reuters
• © Lucas Jackson

So, before the debate in June, about 7% of Democrats were ready to vote for it (data from Real Clear Politics statistical aggregator based on more than 30 independent polls from various agencies and media), and after a verbal fight with Biden, her rating at the beginning of July was 15%.

Biden, who is still the leader of the race (32% according to Real Clear Politics), continues to confirm the fears of political scientists about his old age: during his speech, he forgot names and dates, got confused in statistics, and even forgot his own web address. site.

He noted that Kamala Harris’s plan to reform health insurance would cost $ 3 trillion (instead of $ 30 trillion, according to media estimates). He then warned viewers that “another eight years for Trump will drastically change America,” forgetting that Donald Trump has almost completed his first presidential term and can only hope for four years in case of re-election.

The most curious was the moment when Biden told the audience that if they agreed with him, they should “go to the Joe 30330 website.” Address, he squinted, read a piece of paper. However, the official website of his campaign is located at joebiden.com, and called Biden a short number for SMS messages in his support.

Social network users have ironically responded to Biden's flaws.

“If you agree with me, go to 'Joe [nuclear code sequence].'”

"If you agree with me, go to the site" Joe (nuclear missile launch code), "- wrote on Twitter journalist publications Huffington Post Matt Fuller.

It means that we’ve been debating for the year 3030. # biden3030

“We are holding a debate on the eve of the 2020 elections, and Biden lives in 3030. How much he is ahead of his time explains why his statements today didn’t have any sense for us, the inhabitants of the present, ”wrote another Twitter user.

Numerous oversights have caused American political scientists to think that Biden may be too old to take part in the elections - if he wins, he will take office at the age of 78, breaking the record of Donald Trump, the oldest president since Reagan, for eight years.

Even CNN, which openly sympathizes with Biden, doubted his ability to adequately fulfill his duties as head of state. If earlier the channel claimed that age is not an obstacle for such an experienced politician, now CNN cautiously expresses opposite opinions.

• © CNN

“Perhaps Joe Biden is too old to be president?” Was the title of an article on the channel’s website about debates.

“Although Biden's allies insist that he is completely healthy, he spoke sluggishly at the debate and sometimes did not keep up with the conversation. Because of this, the talk about the fact that, perhaps, in the case of the former vice-president, the years have taken their toll, sounded more loudly, ”writes the author of the article, political analyst at CNN, Michael Siliza.

Joe Biden is in a difficult situation, because the sympathies of most centrist democrats are connected with the past, and now we are talking about the future, director of the Franklin Roosevelt Foundation for the Study of the United States, Yuri Rogulev, said in an interview with RT.

“No one knows how he will demonstrate himself and his capabilities, but he shouldn’t pin high hopes on his candidacy, because his previous attempts to get elected were unsuccessful. I think there will not be a single candidate in the Democratic Party. The second after Biden is Sanders, who cannot claim the role of a single candidate, since he is too radical for the majority of voters. Young people, intellectuals, will vote for him, but he can push a significant part of more conservative Democrats, who in this case will vote for Trump, ”Rogulev explained.

Now the Democratic Party has enough left-wing radicals among the candidates, but only Joe Biden, who is a centrist, will be able to compete with Trump because he has chances to collect votes of non-party voters, Gevorg Mirzayan said.

“Democrats are better at primaries not to recall the problems of Biden, which are associated with the African American community in the US and age. If they choose a radical, then he will have not so many chances to defeat Trump, ”the expert believes.

Russian agents among the democrats

If the writer Marianna Williamson became the dark horse in the first round of the debate, Tulsi Gabbard, a veteran of the Iraqi major and member of the US congress representative from Hawaii, showed one of the most confident speeches of the second day.

• Congressman Tulsi Gabbard
• Reuters
• © Lucas Jackson

During her speech, Gabbard criticized Biden, and especially Senator Harris, who recalled her dubious decisions as San Francisco district attorney.

The Democrats could not forgive Gabbard for the successful criticism of the candidates of the establishment, so they immediately accused her of having links with Russia.

"Yes, we all just cleverly pretend that Tulsi is not an apologist for Assad and Putin," political scientist Adam Parkhomenko wrote on Twitter.

In 2017, Tulsi Gabbard secretly visited Syria, where she met with President Bashar Assad. She has repeatedly spoken out against regime change in Syria and US policies in the region, for which her party colleagues called her “a foreign agent” and “Putin’s puppet.”

“Over the years, people have been urging Tulsi to admit that Assad is a war criminal, but she doesn’t want to do that. Just insane! ”Wrote political analyst Jesse Lerich.

It is worth noting that Parkhomenko and Leric worked on Hillary Clinton's headquarters during the 2016 presidential election.

Tulsi Gabbard is honest, open, straightforward, but, as a rule, with such qualities in politics they do not achieve much success, said Yuri Rogulev. According to him, only Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are candidates at the national level, all the rest are politicians at the local level who clearly do not pull on the overall national leadership.

“I'm not sure that the Democrats will be able to choose a clear candidate for the fight against Trump in the upcoming elections from such a wide field. They do not have a definite core program, so they are starting to invent some fantastic things like the “Russian trace,” which will not help them at all in the elections, since American citizens are not interested in this question. This is a very convenient situation for Trump, he will calmly beat Biden, because this is not the candidate who can oppose him to something, ”said Yuri Rogulev.

It will be difficult for democrats to find a popular and interesting centrist candidate, as the Democratic Party and popular politicians are forced to move left with it, Gevorg Mirzayan said.

“Later, new candidates from the Democratic Party may appear, who will be centrist and at the same time sympathetic to the voter. Theoretically, everything is possible, because before the election another year. For example, Hillary Clinton may return to lose again in disgrace. Now the election campaign is only gaining momentum, ”the expert concluded.