Washington maintains its military presence in Syria because of "outstanding problems"

Acting US Defense Secretary Mark Esber said on July 16 that his country's troops in Syria would remain indefinitely as part of the war effort to "advocate" within multinational forces. This is an attempt by the White House, already nominated by the White House, to end the confusion over the past seven months about the future US military presence, in light of President Donald Trump's January 19, 2019 announcement that he would withdraw His forces from Syria after the defeat of «Dahesh». Therefore, it is conceivable that the United States has taken a step backward towards the decision to withdraw, in light of the continuing threats on the ground in Syria, revealing that the first decision did not include several security accounts in Syria, according to some estimates that were confirmed at the time.

Several motives

This American decision can be interpreted in light of several considerations, the most prominent of which are:

1 - The continuation of the war on the «urging»

Several trends suggest that the announcement of the defeat of a "pre-emptive" organization by some officials did not reflect sound estimates, especially after several intelligence assessments of the "second return" of the organization, which may be fiercer than the first phase of the organization Dominated by a large area of ​​Syria. These trends are based on the fact that, in conjunction with Esper's statements, US forces were conducting a joint landing operation with the Syrian Democratic Forces (Qods) in the village of Tkeji in the eastern Deir Al-Zour area, which witnessed clashes suggesting that the war on the organization was not over. distance.

2. Lack of agreement on the Kurds

This is what US national security adviser John Bolton said during his January 6 visit to Israel, saying that "the withdrawal of US forces from Syria requires the guarantee of an agreement to protect the Kurds," especially in the light of differences between Washington and Ankara In this context, the latter is considered a terrorist organization, a target of its operations in Syria, and was preparing to fill the American vacuum after Trump announced the withdrawal of its forces from Syria.

It is likely that this agreement faltered in the light of tensions in US-Turkish relations with the implementation of the S-400 missile deal between Turkey and Russia, which in turn reflected the nature of the potential deployment of US forces in the north-west of the Euphrates to prevent it being a target in the way of Turkish troops .

3 - escalation with Iran

The United States still believes that the Iranian presence in Syria is a threat to its interests and the interests of its allies, especially Israel. The US-Russian-Israeli tripartite security meeting held on June 24 failed to put an end to this presence. The Tannaf base to monitor Iran's border movements between Iraq and Syria, especially in light of the challenge of focusing the US presence in Iraq on this goal, according to Trump's view that the transfer of troops to Iraq would allow a rapid redeployment in Syria, Control of movement Irene.

Nature of propagation

Esper maintains a reference to the nature of the new proliferation for reasons of secrecy, but the Wall Street Journal quoted a senior Pentagon official as saying that "part of the US forces will remain in the city of Manbaj in northern Aleppo, where the soldiers will continue to conduct joint patrols With their Turkish counterparts. While the second group settles east of the Euphrates as part of a safe area between Turkey and Syria, in addition to the task of training local fighters. While the third contingent will remain in the southern region of the Tunn (at the border of the Syrian - Iraqi - Jordanian), as part of the campaign against (da'ash) and a barrier against Iranian expansion in that region ».

The nature of the proliferation, revealed by the paper, indicates its compatibility with the motives for the survival of US forces in Syria, referred to earlier. US estimates indicate that there are European forces (multinational) will participate in these tasks, and is likely to range between 800 and 1500 troops, in addition to the American forces, which is not yet known the final number of the 2,000 soldiers already in the north and south of Syria, 400 at the base of the tunnel.

Thus, there may be a parity between the American forces that will remain in Syria and the rest of the forces of some Western countries that the United States succeeded in persuading them to continue in Syria, especially Britain and France, while the United States continues to maintain its leadership.

Different roles

It seems that American forces, according to the new scenario, will remain in Syria indefinitely. In terms of objectives and the nature of the deployment, some of these forces constitute "separation forces" to hold between the Turkish and Kurdish forces to prevent confrontations between the two parties, and thus may be difficult to terminate the task of these forces in the short term, because of the Turkish position of the Kurds, Does not believe it will be available under the current US-Turkish tension.

On the other hand, it is difficult to say that any possible US-Iranian negotiations could guarantee Iran's exit from Syria. Moreover, the war on terror, in the light of American experience in Iraq for a long time against al-Qaeda and with the emergence of a " It is difficult to completely eliminate these organizations, and therefore this presence is likely to turn into a permanent state of survival in the foreseeable future.

Washington's retreat

It can be said that Washington has begun to retreat from the decision to leave Syria, in parallel with the restructuring of its military presence in Syria, not dealing with casual developments, but phenomena that exist and will continue in the future, in the framework of an American review of the different dimensions of the Syrian situation Are still expressing complex complications, in a conflict that is not over yet, and the horizon of settlement is still elusive.

It is hard to say that any possible US-Iranian negotiations can guarantee Iran's exit from Syria. Moreover, the war on terror - in the light of the US experience in Iraq - suggests that it is difficult to eliminate these organizations completely. Lasting future.