"Concession for Serbia": can the Haradinaia case become part of the bargaining over the status of Kosovo

The decision of the former Kosovo government Ramush Haradinaj to cooperate with the International Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia is a concession to Serbia. In exchange, Belgrade will be offered to change its position on Kosovo. This was stated by Serbian Defense Minister Alexander Vulin in an interview with the newspaper Kurir.

“Albanians expect that the West will demand Serbia to make concessions after former Kosovo Prime Minister Ramos Haradinai went to court in The Hague,” he explained to journalists.

Vulin believes that the ultimate goal of the West is to get Belgrade to recognize the independence of Kosovo, and in the current actual borders.

The Minister of Defense himself believes that the territory of this partially recognized republic should be divided - Serb-populated areas of Kosovo should become part of Serbia. In an interview with Kurir, Vulin called on his compatriots to maintain unity - in his opinion, the Kosovo authorities are trying to drive a wedge between the local Serbs and Belgrade.

Readiness to appear in the Hague Tribunal on the received agenda Haradinai said on Friday, July 19. Then he resigned as prime minister. According to him, the claims that international justice has against him impede the performance of his official duties.

It should be noted that Haradinaj is the most senior Kosovo Albanian representative, who is being investigated by the International Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia. In addition, a criminal case was opened against Haradinaj in Serbia. The authorities of this country declared him on the international wanted list. Both the Serbian Prosecutor’s Office and the Hague Tribunal incriminate him in war crimes during the 1999 Kosovo conflict.

Recall that on the same day, July 19, a meeting took place between the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Serbia, Ivica Dacic, and the Assistant to the President of the United States for National Security, John Bolton, where they discussed the subject of negotiations between Pristina and Belgrade.

“We agreed that the dialogue with Kosovo should be promoted, since the preservation of the status quo is not beneficial for either side. It’s time for both sides to act, ”Bolton wrote on his Twitter.

It was a pleasure to host FM Dacic of Serbia today. We agree on the status quo. Actress. pic.twitter.com/GIrWhAEDsO

Possible trick

The voluntary surrender of the Haradinaya to the International Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia may well be part of the bargaining over the status of Kosovo, experts say.

“This option is not excluded. It should be borne in mind that Haradinai is not some kind of kamikaze. As far as we know the history of the Hague Tribunal, a long term sentence is possible, which will soon be followed by an acquittal or pardon, ”said a researcher in the history department of southern and western Slavs of the Faculty of History of Moscow State University in an interview with RT. Mv Lomonosov Vladimir Putyatin.

• Serbian Defense Minister Alexander Vulin
• RIA News
• © Grigory Sysoev

The analyst recalled the case of Ante Gotovina, who commanded the Croatian army in 1995. He surrendered to the Hague Tribunal, in April 2011 he was sentenced to 24 years in prison, but a year later, Gotovina was acquitted and released in the courtroom. Many experts then argued that this decision was a kind of gift from Croatia to the signing in 2012 of the agreement on the accession of this country to the European Union.

Thus, Haradinaj may be sentenced to a long term, so that Serbia agrees to change its position, Putyatin said. And when progress in the negotiations on Kosovo is reached, the sentence may be revised, the expert suggests.

Haradinay’s experience with the tribunal for the former Yugoslavia should also inspire optimism. In 2008, he was acquitted in The Hague in the case of the creation of a concentration camp for Serb prisoners of war during hostilities in Kosovo. In 2010, the Appeals Chamber of the Tribunal concluded that there was pressure on witnesses in the Haradinaj case. In 2012, the Hague Tribunal reconsidered this case, but again delivered an acquittal.

It should also be noted that when he was prime minister, Haradinai enjoyed diplomatic immunity. He could use this circumstance for his defense, experts say. At the same time, according to the statute of the Hague Tribunal, the official position of the accused does not give him judicial immunity, but the lawyers of Haradinaia could challenge this provision. The current refusal of Haradinaya from the post of prime minister is indirect evidence that he is not afraid of the court decision, analysts say.

According to Putyanin, if a new investigation against a Kosovo politician is a trick in negotiations with Serbia, then the authors are Americans.

“Negotiations between Pristina and Belgrade are at an impasse. The United States does not like this. Americans are interested in the negotiation process moving from a dead center and as soon as possible, ”the expert is sure.

He recalled that it was Serbia’s unwillingness to recognize Kosovo’s independence as a decisive obstacle to the country's accession to the European Union. In addition, the unresolved Kosovo issue prevents the entry of neighboring Albania into NATO. Both are not in the interests of the United States, who want all Balkan countries to take place in integration-friendly projects in America, the source said.

An interesting explanation of the possible intrigue associated with Haradinaev, outlined the Serbian edition of Blic. With reference to its sources in the diplomatic circles of Kosovo, the journalists of the publication claim that the resignation of the prime minister and the case against him was initiated by the United States. According to them, the Haradinai "absolutely out of control" of Washington and took an uncompromising attitude towards Serbia. In particular, he refused to lift 100% duties on Serbian goods imposed by the Kosovo authorities. Removing, even if temporary, Haradinaia from politics will help the resumption of negotiations in Pristina and Belgrade this fall, says Blic.

Will the USA achieve its goal?

At the same time, analysts do not exclude that, speaking of the exchange of Haradinaya for concessions from Serbia, Vulin only expounds his assumption, which is not substantiated by anything.

“Any tricks make sense only if the end goal is attainable. As the president of Serbia, Alexander Vucic, said, the modern identity of the Serbs is based on the non-recognition of Kosovo as an independent state. Therefore, to argue that this issue can be traded for Haradinaia, in my opinion, is illegal, ”Leonid Savin, an expert at the Center for Geopolitical Expertise, said in an interview with RT.

• Flag of Serbia on the balcony of a residential building in the city of Kosovska Mitrovica
• RIA News
• © Marko Kuzhavich

In his opinion, the maximum of concessions that the West can achieve from Serbia is a partition of Kosovo, an option that also supports Wulin.

“The necessity of dividing this territory into Albanian and Serbian parts in Belgrade was repeatedly mentioned. This question was recalled whenever Kosovo’s Serb enclaves were subjected to political pressure, or there were acts of violence committed by extremists or the Albanian police. Therefore, it is possible that the negotiation process on this issue will continue. Nevertheless, Belgrade always knew that it was necessary not to go beyond, remember that Kosovo and Metohija are part of sovereign Serbia, ”said Savin.

At the same time, experts recognize that in this case not everything depends on the Serbian authorities.

“They are under serious pressure, the carrot and carrot method is used, they are promised economic preferences and serious problems, so long as Serbia joins the EU, and in the future - into NATO,” says Savin.

Not only the situation with Haradinai, but also the behavior of the authorities of this partially recognized state attests to the fact that there may soon be some movement in the negotiations on Kosovo.

“Recently, the Kosovo leadership has been allowing itself what it has never allowed. The Kosovo army was officially created, the police are making raids into Serb enclaves. This testifies to the fact that Pristina is counting on some kind of change in relations with Belgrade and very soon, ”said Vladimir Putiatin.