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The European Parliament is pronouncing this Tuesday, July 16 on the fate of Ursula von der Leyen. REUTERS / Francois Lenoir

The European Parliament is expected to vote on Tuesday 16 July on the appointment of Ursula von der Leyen as head of the European Commission. During her big speech, the German will have to convince at least 374 MEPs to be elected.

Fragmented Parliament and Uncertain Political Equation: Candidate Ursula von der Leyen worked tirelessly all weekend to make up for a week when she did not convince, after auditions judged at best " imprecise " or as a " net " lukewarm water, unconvincing .

Until the end, the candidate of the heads of state and government tried to convince . Arriving in Strasbourg on Monday, July 15th in the late afternoon, for last meetings and very discreet meetings, Ursula von der Leyen did everything to tip the scales in her favor: the centrists and the liberals but also the Socialists had asked him for details and commitments, black and white. It is done.

Convince at least 374 MEPs

" It is true that we expect even more concrete, " said a spokesman for the Renaissance group. But the same points to many advances, such as commitments to a more integrated Europe, for example the will to put an end to the unanimity rule in the fields of taxation and the social, the only way to implement place a real minimum wage, or, and the Elysee dream, to tax the giants of digital.

Confirmed benevolence therefore centrists and liberals (108 votes), loyalty expected from his side, the European People's Party (EPP) (182 votes). There are 84 ballots missing and again, if in the secrecy of the ballot box, Ursula von der Leyen is filling up well in these two groups.

►To read also: European Commission: Ursula von der Leyen tries to rally to her cause

For ecologists and the radical left, it is without appeal a no. There remain the 153 socialist voices. Here too, the centrist has been able to commit, in writing on the climate, social inequalities, and to snatch many satisfecits: "I was not expecting so much ", says a British MEP, " incredible progress " It's signed by an Italian. " We will not get better, " according to the Danes. Even the Dutch, who came back after thinking for a few hours that one of them, Frans Timmermans, would chair the European Commission, are less angry.

Towards an approval

There are still the French, the Germans, the Belgians or the Greeks. In total, a third of refractory. Elected officials severely pointed out in the Renaissance group as elected officials who " ignore the political reality of Parliament, " and anyway, we add: " Who else has the majority? ".

In the name of the reality principle or the concessions made, the general feeling is that we are moving towards an approval of the choice of the European Council. The real question is: with what margin, and especially with which votes? The Poles of the PiS, the ruling party in a country prosecuted for violating the rule of law?

That would not sign very flamboyant beginnings. In this very last straight line in any case, the heads of state and government put all their weight in the balance, and singularly the socialists whose camp is the most recalcitrant: the Portuguese Antonio Costa and the Spaniard Pedro Sanchez have officially pleaded yesterday for the confirmation of the German centrist.

Ursula von der Leyen in any case announced yesterday: she resigned Wednesday, July 17 from his post as defense minister. No return possible.