A group of senators from the committees of the armed forces and international affairs of the US Congress issued a statement condemning Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for the purchase of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems.

“By agreeing to the delivery of S-400 from Russia, President Erdogan made a choice in favor of a dangerous partnership with Putin to the detriment of the security and economic well-being of Turkey, as well as the integrity of NATO,” write the statement, Republicans Jim Inhof and Jim Rish, Democrats Jack Reed and Robert Menendez.

They propose to introduce a full sanctions package against Turkey, provided for by the CAATSA law (“On counteracting the opponents of America through sanctions”). In accordance with it, a list of Turkish legal entities and individuals involved in S-400 supplies, whose accounts and assets will be arrested, and the right to enter the United States is limited, should be compiled. In addition, CAATSA imposes restrictions on US investment and the export of certain goods and technologies to countries subject to the sanctions package, as well as business cooperation with these states.

In a statement, the senators specifically stipulated that Turkey should be completely excluded from the number of participants in the fifth generation F-35 fighter development project, which provides for the sale of about one hundred Ankara aircraft, as well as training, including at US air bases, Turkish pilots and technical personnel. In addition, the F-35 parts — parts of the fuselage, landing gear, and cockpit displays — should not be manufactured in Turkish factories anymore.

The senators' statement stresses that sanctions against a country that is America’s traditional ally are enforced.

“It shouldn't have come to this. However, President Erdogan, unfortunately, rejected numerous US efforts aimed at preserving strategic relations between our countries and preserving Turkey’s ability to protect its airspace with the help of F-35 fighters and Patriot complexes, ”the document says.

It is worth noting that a similar statement was made in the US Congress. Elliot Engel, head of the House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs, and Michael McCall, a member of the same committee, also condemned Ankara’s actions and called for its removal from the F-35 program.

“We warned them that the acquisition of C-400 systems would lead to the imposition of sanctions. We supported the administration’s proposal to sell Patriot systems in order to meet Turkey’s anti-missile and air defense needs. President Erdogan had an obvious choice. And, unfortunately, he, obviously, made the wrong decision, "- said in a statement.

Recall about the Russian-Turkish deal on the C-400 became known in 2017. Moscow pledged to put Ankara four divisions of the air defense system. The total contract amount is $ 2.5 billion. The first components of the C-400 arrived in Turkey on July 12.

Price of sanctions

If the United States really goes to sanctions against Turkey, this will be an unprecedented case, experts say.

"This have not happened before. For the first time, a country that is a member of NATO will fall under US sanctions. And we are not talking about a minor member of the alliance. In terms of its capabilities and strength, in numbers and armaments, the Turkish army is by far the largest among the European allies of the United States. It will be a crisis inside NATO that could lead to unpredictable consequences for the entire organization, ”said Edward Lozansky, president of the American Institute in Moscow, in a conversation with RT.

At the same time, experts emphasize that the C-400 theme will be used in the presidential race that has already begun in the United States. Elections are due in November 2020. Analysts believe that Trump will be subject to harsh criticism if it leaves Erdogan’s actions unanswered.

“Of course, one must take into account that during the election campaign the main place will be given to domestic policy. Society in the United States is interested in completely different issues - reducing unemployment, spending on education and medicine, in short, all that the ordinary American family lives. And relations with Turkey are in the twenty fifth place. Nevertheless, the fact that there was a new reason for criticism should trump Trumpa, ”says Lozansky.

  • Anti-aircraft missile system S-400 "Triumph"
  • RIA News
  • © Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation

Criticizing the C-400 deal, US senators are attacking the American president, experts say. They recall that Robert Menendez, a member of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, is Trump's long-time and committed opponent. Previously, he repeatedly criticized the head of state for politics in the Middle East and in relation to Russia.

Menendez is a hardliner against Moscow. The senator was one of the initiators of the adoption of the CAATSA law and the creation of a commission of special prosecutor Robert Muller, which investigated the alleged Russian intervention in the 2016 presidential election in the United States and possible "connections" between Trump's election headquarters and the Russian Federation. The C-400 is primarily a pretext for attacking the head of state. The critics of the president think about the consequences of anti-Turkish sanctions last, experts say.

It all depends on the presidents

To be or not prohibitive measures against Turkey, ultimately depends on the head of state. The issue of sanctions against foreign countries in the United States in the competence of the president. And Trump’s position on the S-400 deal has changed several times, Vladimir Bruter, an expert at the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies, said in an interview with RT.

“At first, the American president also spoke in favor of sanctions. Then he stated that he understood the position of Turkey, that the problem was created by the Obama administration, which refused to sell Patriot complexes to Ankara, which was why Erdogan had to turn to Russia. Trump is ready to listen to Erdogan's arguments, but at the same time he does not accept the purchase of the C-400, ”says Bruter.

  • Pentagon building in Washington
  • Reuters
  • © Jason Reed

The reaction of the United States to the delivery of Turkey’s Russian air defense system in general fits into the general line of the Trump administration in international affairs, the expert said.

“The approach to the Turkish problem is to a large extent similar to what we see in the US relations with China, Iran, Venezuela and North Korea. Trump all the time scares everyone, against all imposes sanctions and promises even tougher sanctions, but at the same time he is afraid to move to more decisive actions, ”says Bruter.

Trump's fears are connected with what he understands: having ruined the final relationship with Erdogan, the United States will create big problems for itself. Such an ally, as Turkey, in the Middle East, Americans have no one to replace.

According to Lozansky, Trump will not go with his critics.

“At least even the instinct of a businessman will work. Trump does not want to refuse to sell the F-35, because it is a multibillion-dollar deal. ”

The expert does not exclude that Trump and Vladimir Putin at a meeting in Osaka during the G-20 summit found some compromise on Turkey.

“The fact is that one of the reasons why the United States and other NATO countries are resisting the S-400 deal is the fear that Russia will get additional information about the F-35 fighters using its air defense systems. Perhaps this question was removed during their conversation. Therefore, we do not hear Trump's outrage at the S-400 deal, ”says Lozansky.

However, according to Vladimir Brutera, another scenario is more likely: to temper criticism, Trump will go to sanctions against Turkey, but will act very selectively - limit Ankara’s participation in the F-35 project by some parameters, but no more.

“In the future, Turkish-American relations will depend on whether or not Erdogan adheres to the principle. If he deepens his cooperation with Russia, buys, say, Russian planes, then Trump will have nothing to do but agree with the senators. If the Turks show moderation and say that the contract for the supply of S-400 is an isolated case, the US President will declare that the incident has been settled, ”concluded Bruter.