Paris (AFP)

More fear than harm for traders? According to a study published Wednesday, the movement of "yellow vests" has not led to a series of failures in recent months, companies have made the "backs round" face events.

No hecatomb for SMEs, no disaster on petty trading: according to Altares, the number of business failures fell by 3.1% year on year in the second quarter, reaching its lowest level since 2008.

A surprising figure, while many in recent months had warned against a delayed effect of the demonstrations started in November on the activity of French companies, with the risk of seeing bankruptcies multiply.

"The first half of 2019 was announced (...) complicated", demonstrations of yellow vests having "put on the knee traders and artisans already weakened for months", said Thierry Millon, director of studies Altares.

But "the entrepreneurs" have finally "held" good, adds Mr. Millon, according to which many "entrepreneurs", yet "located in city centers impacted", "were able to do the round back, even dampen the shock of exploitation and the definitive loss of turnover ".

According to Altarès, 209 safeguard procedures were initiated between April and June, down 11.8% compared to the same period last year. Direct judicial liquidations decreased by 4.4% (8,387 procedures), while judicial restatements remained almost stable (3,751 procedures, + 0.3%).

All categories of companies, however, have not experienced the same evolution. According to Altarès, SMEs as a whole experienced a "clearly favorable" trend, with 14.3% fewer failures. On the other hand, the "big SMEs" (at least 100 employees) experienced a negative evolution, with 39 failures reported (+ 62.5%).

By sector of activity, the trend remained favorable in trade (-4.7%), catering (-8%) or construction (-2.4%). But the transport and logistics sector has once again settled "in the red" (+ 6.4%), while the livestock sector has experienced a worrying evolution (+ 17.2%).

- aid device -

Has the economic impact of the movement been overvalued? In recent weeks, several macroeconomic indicators, including growth and attractiveness figures, have shown that protests have had less effect than feared.

"The crisis of yellow vests has had no impact on the attractiveness of France (...) I see that it has less impact than I would have believed myself", has also recognized the Minister of Economy Bruno Le Mayor running May.

"If the effects of these movements could be severe in certain areas and for some companies, their overall impact appears (...) unquestionably weaker than its political and media impact," said his side INSEE.

For Thierry Millon, "the aid system put in place by the public authorities from late November 2018" seems to have also "allowed + small + entrepreneurs" to resist the effects of the movement of "yellow vests".

According to the General Management of Companies (DGE), this system set up by Bercy has allowed spread of more than 112 million euros of social maturities and 104 million tax debts.

A recovery of failures certainly took place in late 2018 and early 2019, "but it is not at all related to yellow vests," said Wednesday the Director General of the DGE, Thomas Courbe, during a presentation of the annual report of his administration.

"Our system has helped meet the needs," said Mr. Courbe, ensuring that the effect of events on the turnover of some businesses, including downtown, had been significant.

Are they out of the woods? Not necessarily, according to a recent Senate report, which did not rule out a critical rise in the number of insolvencies during the second half of 2019.

"The end of the accompanying measures will naturally ring the reminder of payments and late contributions and all will not have recovered the cash," recognizes Thierry Millon. But according to him, "business conditions are improving".

? 2019 AFP