“Attempts to maneuver”: why Iran intends to reduce its obligations in the framework of the SVPD

On Monday, July 8, Behruz Kamalvandi, a spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said the country had begun to enrich uranium above the 3.67% level envisaged by the nuclear deal. According to him, in the framework of subsequent reductions of obligations under the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (DFID), Tehran can increase this figure to 20%, but so far this is not necessary.

This information was later confirmed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), RIA Novosti reports with reference to a representative of the organization, Fredrik Dahl.

“Director General Yukiya Amano informed the IAEA Board of Governors that on July 8, agency inspectors found that Iran was enriching uranium above 3.67% uranium-235,” Dahl said.

According to the deputy official representative of the UN Secretary-General, Farhan Haq, if these data are confirmed, Tehran’s actions “will not help either save the plan or provide tangible economic benefits for the Iranian people.”

• Bushehr NPP
• AFP
• © Atta Kenare

In turn, US President Donald Trump advised Iran to "be careful" with regard to nuclear enrichment. So the head of the White House on the eve responded to Tehran’s plans to reduce its obligations under the UHTD.

Prior to this, the United States Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the decision of the Iranian side to exceed the level of uranium enrichment set by the UFID would lead to new sanctions restrictions, as well as further isolation of the country.

According to him, Iran, "having a nuclear weapon, will pose an even greater threat to the world." Also, the representative of the US State Department called on Iran to preserve the existing standards for uranium enrichment in accordance with the nuclear deal.

On the eve of Tehran announced its intention to continue to reduce its obligations under the SAP. This was stated by the deputy head of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Abbas Arakchi, who noted that the Iranian side would take such steps every 60 days if the parties to the agreement do not begin to take into account the republic's requirements on the SVPD.

“We are taking the second step, reducing our obligations in this regard today ... We will give them (the countries of agreement. - RT ) 60 more days to register our requirements, and then again. This will continue, ”the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister said.

At the same time, Arakchi did not exclude the country's complete withdrawal from the FACD, stressing that the current steps of the republic are aimed at preserving the agreement. According to the Iranian news channel Press TV, the beginning of uranium enrichment above the level of 3.67% is necessary for Tehran to "meet the needs of power plants" of the republic.

As the deputy head of the Iranian Foreign Ministry explained, the decision was made in connection with the expiration of the 60-day period, which was allotted to European participants in the transaction to compensate for the “negative consequences of a unilateral withdrawal” of the US from the UFMA.

Recall that Washington withdrew from the nuclear agreement in the spring of 2018 and imposed sanctions against Iran, as well as against countries that do business with an Islamic republic. On June 24, 2019, US President Donald Trump signed a decree introducing restrictions on Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The US Treasury clarified that we are talking about blocking Iran’s foreign assets to billions of dollars.

However, Alexander Vavilov, an expert on the Middle East, a professor at Moscow State University, believes that the recent actions of the Iranian side are quite understandable and justified.

“The European participants in the deal promised much to Tehran, but in fact almost did nothing. Iran was waiting for compensation for losses from the restriction of oil exports - the main source of income of the republic, but the Europeans could not compensate for the damage. The creation of a special body that was called upon to do this also did not lead to anything — the institute actually does not work, ”Vavilov said in an interview with RT.

• Deputy head of the Iranian Foreign Ministry Abbas Arakchi
• Reuters
• © Heinz-Peter Bader

Because of this, Iran had to go its own way - Tehran in foreign policy "proceeds from the ancient Roman rule that all agreements must be implemented," the expert stressed.

“In international law, this is one of the cornerstones. If the countries came to an agreement and the UN Security Council approved this agreement, then you need to implement it. If the contract was violated by one party, the other takes off obligations - this is the principle of diplomacy, ”Vavilov explained.

According to Sergey Balmasov, an expert at the Institute of the Middle East, Iran is now acting much more productively, abandoning the tough line, and demonstrates readiness to go to certain agreements.

“Iran is trying to maneuver while not bending under the dictates of Washington and not resorting to forceful measures. This is a diplomatic move that gives Iran the opportunity to gain time before the subsequent inevitable attempts by the US to put pressure on Tehran, ”the expert said in an interview with RT.

This is the most convenient formula for Iran, which the republic has chosen against the background of the escalation of the conflict with Washington - Tehran is thus trying to return to dialogue, Balmasov said.

"Become whipping boys"

According to analysts, by its actions Iran is also trying to mobilize European countries to take active steps on the Iranian issue.

The other day, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, during a telephone conversation with French leader Emmanuel Macron, called on the European Union to fulfill its obligations under international treaties and UN resolutions in order to step up efforts to save the DFID. This was reported by the press service of the head of Iran. In addition, Rouhani called Washington’s economic sanctions on Tehran an “act of terrorism.”

"The continuation of this economic war may lead to other threats in the region and the world," said the president of the republic in a conversation with Macron.

According to Rouhani, despite US sanctions, Iran with strategic patience tried to keep the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan in force for the past 14 months.

According to Sergey Balmasov, the fact of negotiations between Ruhani and Macron once again shows that there is no consolidated position on the Iranian issue in the West.

“Many European countries are interested in developing relations with Iran. And in the event of an armed conflict between the United States and Iran, Tehran may well at least disrupt the process of energy supplies from the Persian Gulf. And it will hit primarily the states of Europe. This is what Rouhani hints at, ”the expert explained.

• Iranian President Hassan Rouhani
• Reuters
• © Abdullah Dhiaa Al-Deen

Balmasov added that in this way Tehran indicates to European colleagues that they need to be more active in resolving the Iranian issue, otherwise they will "become whipping boys".

“Rouhani once again urges Europe to comply with its obligations, since it is well aware that the EU is interested in the energy resources of the Iranian republic, as well as the conclusion of a number of contracts in other areas,” the analyst said.

Alexander Vavilov shares this opinion.

“Teheran, for example, can block the Strait of Hormuz, through which 30% of all world oil is exported. In this case, the oil market will simply suffocate. However, a more dangerous threat is a high probability of an armed clash in the region, ”said the expert.

Serious Ambitions of Paris

During a telephone conversation with the Iranian leader, Emmanuel Macron stated that the European Union is demonstrating a strong disagreement with the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan.

“The EU wants the DFID to remain in force, for which we make all possible efforts,” added Macron, expressing Paris’s readiness to become more active in the matter of maintaining the agreement.

“France is ready to redouble its efforts in this direction, especially in order to satisfy Iran’s demands for an armistice in an economic war,” said the French president.

Macron also noted that the situation should be kept under control and new measures should be taken to preserve the agreement.

“The SVPD fiasco will be a regrettable event and will mean recognition of collective failure. Therefore, we need to choose a different path that will allow us to maintain this agreement and help reduce tensions, ”the French leader said.

Macron agreed with his Iranian counterpart to study the question of the conditions for resuming the dialogue with all parties until July 15.

The French leader took the initiative on the Iranian issue, since Paris has clear expectations from cooperation with Iran, believes Sergei Balmasov.

“And this concerns not only contracts in the oil and gas and raw materials spheres, France has very serious ambitions regarding the development of the Iranian nuclear and peaceful industry, counting, among other things, on the construction of a third of Iranian nuclear power plants. However, this is just one article of the contract, which the French side hopes for. There are a lot of money involved — tens of billions of dollars, ”the analyst said.

• French President Emmanuel Macron
• Reuters
• © Piroschka van de Wouw

According to Balmasov, France began to interact more actively with Iran, as it fears that in the event of a conflict in the Persian Gulf, energy supplies from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will be interrupted.

“Paris receives from these countries a significant share of oil and gas resources. France thus reacted to the heated situation around Iran, when Washington openly began to talk about strikes and play to raise the stakes, ”the expert said.

At the same time, Balmasov stressed that the possible actions of the French side on the Iranian issue will have no effect, since France does not have the necessary resources in the EU.

“Without reaching an agreement with the United States, any“ other way ”that Macron speaks of will only be words. But the French president will not be able to convince Washington to stop pressure on Iran - this is clearly not its scope, ”the analyst explained.

As Balmasov noted, the French leader actively “took up the Iranian issue”, because he wants, among other things, to earn political points before the presidential election.

“Macron is a politician, he needs to position himself accordingly, take initiatives. Moreover, he is preparing for the next election, and now the president has no special achievements in domestic and foreign policy. So far, apart from loud statements, Macron has failed to do anything, ”the expert stated.

"Increase pressure"

The White House will respond to the actions of the Iranian side on the SVPD with new attempts at pressure, analysts say.

Against the background of reports that Iran has increased the limit of low-enriched uranium reserves set by the UFID, Donald Trump said that Tehran "is playing with fire."

“They know what they are doing ... They know what they are playing with and they are playing with fire,” the Jerusalem Post newspaper quoted the head of the White House.

As Sergey Balmasov notes, “any hesitation on the part of Iran” can be used by Washington as a ploy to “further increase pressure”.

“However, it is difficult for Trump to decide on armed aggression, given his unstable position in domestic politics and confrontation with many congressmen,” the expert explained.

According to him, the further actions of Washington in the framework of the Iranian issue will depend on the internal political situation in the United States.

“At the same time, in any case, Washington will not go for an open confrontation with Europe - Trump is not on his hands because of the upcoming US presidential election,” the analyst said.

At the same time, it is unlikely that the United States will open up the Iranian market to European countries and lift sanctions from Tehran, Balmasov said.

“Even if such initiatives suddenly arise in Washington, the Congress will contribute as much as possible to their breakdown. For the US, the European Union is a competitor that needs to be squeezed, including through the avoidance of lucrative contracts, ”the expert concluded.

• US President Donald Trump
• Reuters
• © Jonathan Ernst