Europe's heads of state and government hope to reach an agreement on Sunday, June 30, on the name of the future president of the European Commission at an extraordinary summit in Brussels. The stakes are high. In addition to Jean-Claude Juncker's successor at the head of the European institution, the Twenty-Eight must also appoint Donald Tusk to the European Council, Federica Mogherini as EU High Representative, and finally Mario Draghi. at the European Central Bank (ECB). The agreement must be completed in the evening and communicated to the leaders of the political groups for the election of the president of the new Parliament next week in Strasbourg.

A decision complicated by the recomposition of the European political landscape and the rise of the extreme right. "European political groups have become regional blocs," says a recent study by European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) think tank, to illustrate the fragmentation of the current forces. The two families at the heart of the European construction, namely the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats, must henceforth deal with the winners of the recent European elections, the Liberals and the Greens.

Withdrawal of Manfred Weber ?

If talks are still ongoing on the succession of Jean-Claude Juncker, a lock seems fallen: in need of support, the pretender of the European People's Party (EPP), the German Manfred Weber, could announce Sunday his withdrawal, provided to be certain of being elected to the head of the European Parliament. Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly said that he does not want to see the MEP at the head of the Commission. Similarly, at the last summit on 21 June, leaders of the socialist and centrist Renew Europe groups also announced that they would not support the Conservative's candidacy in the event of a vote.

On the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka, Angela Merkel had preferred, Saturday, to put on the saddle the leader of the Social Democrats, Frans Timmermans. Because as vice-president of the European Commission, this Dutch has a solid advantage. His candidacy would have been discussed at length in Osaka and would even be "consolidated", as reported by a diplomat at Le Figaro.

"No prejudices"

To win, however, Frans Timmermans will have to overcome the hostility of five countries: the four members of the Visegrad group (Hungary and Poland, against whom the diplomat launched proceedings for violation of the rule of law, Slovakia and the Czech Republic) and Italy. "A left-wing man presiding over the European Commission, we will certainly not support it!", Had even launched, Saturday, the Italian Minister of the Interior, Matteo Salvini, whose far-right party, the Northern League, is came first in the European elections.

"We want someone who understands our region, who has no prejudices or historically negative opinions when it comes to our position on migration, climate or budget, for example", warned Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis.

As a reminder, in order to be designated by the European Council, a candidate must have the support of 22 out of 28 Member States, representing more than 60% of the population. The candidacy of Frans Timmermans could thus pass without the countries of the Visegrad group. If this were the case, the European Parliament presidency could return to Manfred Weber (EPP) and that of the Council to a member of the European People's Party or a liberal. Two names are currently being cited for this latest post: Romanian President Klaus Iohannis, a member of the EPP, and Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel on the Liberal side.

Denmark's Margrethe Vestager candidate

Another candidate on the table, that of the European Commissioner for Competition, Margrethe Vestager. Last July, Google sentenced the giant Google to pay a record fine of 4.34 billion euros, becoming one of the leading figures of the anti-Gafa crusade in Europe. His possible appointment at the head of the Brussels executive would allow France to run for president of the European Central Bank.

Above all, it would bring a new breath to an institution that does not shine by the parity of its composition. Of the 28 European Commissioners, only nine are women.

At the time of the negotiations, prudence is always in order. Especially since other candidates, like the Frenchman and member of the EPP Michel Barnier, can still appear as credible remedies.