Iran and the fate of Assad axis of Israeli-American security summit in Jerusalem

Mohamed Mohsen Wedd - Occupied Jerusalem

The Israeli-American-Russian security summit, which was held on Sunday in Jerusalem, discussed Syria's future and political reform by ensuring the survival of Bashar al-Assad's regime and keeping Iran away from it, enhancing coordination and cooperation among these countries, Washington's return to the Tel Aviv-Moscow regional alliance and convergence of views. Tension between Washington and Tehran in the Gulf and the crisis of the nuclear agreement.

The summit, which brought together for the first time Israel's national security advisers, was focused on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Russian counterpart Nikolai Petrushev and US National Security Adviser John Bolton, who was quick to point out threats to Iran from Israel during his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Between America, Israel and Russia.

According to analysts and researchers in the Israeli national security, the summit - such as Bolton's statements in support of Tel Aviv and threatening to Tehran - serves as a message to Iran to strengthen the alliance between Moscow and Washington and Tel Aviv, and confirm the full US support for Tel Aviv and its right to defend itself against any attack, .

Despite the fact that the security summit came in the period of the elections of the Knesset returned, which will be held in September, analysts have ruled out the success of Netanyahu in the recruitment to raise the electoral balance, especially that the summit content and substance of the consensus of the various Zionist parties, especially the coalition of the generals, "Kahol - Lavan" Which contends Netanyahu to form the next government.

Israeli analysts agree that the tripartite summit in Israel coincides with the Bahrain Economic Summit, the military escalation in the Gulf, and the imposition of further sanctions by the US administration on Iran over its nuclear program. This is an achievement for Israeli diplomacy and strengthening its international and regional standing. And Israeli national security.

Reconciliation of interests
The diplomat, Zvi Magin, reviewed the position of the National Security Research Center at Tel Aviv University, the trilateral summit between Israel and the United States and Russia, and the motives and implications.

Magen considered the summit as an achievement for Israel's policy, which is maneuvering between the interests of Moscow and Washington and positioning itself as a key factor in the dialogue between the superpowers about the future of Syria and Iranian intervention in it.

According to the researcher at the Center for National Security Research, the summit is considered by Washington and Moscow to be another step towards focusing on issues that differ between Russia and America. The choice of the Israeli arena for the summit is to confirm both the role of Washington and Moscow on the role, status and territorial importance of Israel.

In his assessment, it is likely that the United States and Russia will have an interest in expressing messages to the Middle East and Iran about their support for Israel, both in the context of Syria and in the context of Iran.

On the other hand, Magin points out that Israel is interested in getting involved in the discussions about the political future of Syria and the survival of the Assad regime - as Russia wants - which seeks legitimacy for this system, and may find it in Tel Aviv and Washington facing an escalation with Iran in the Gulf, Tehran from the tree, and avoid military confrontation in the region.

But he says that "Israel may also risk some risks because through the discussions it is possible to reach agreements mainly on the political arrangements and stability in Syria, without providing an answer to the Israeli interests in this context and summarized by removing all Iranian forces from Syria, Fire in the Golan ".

Majin explains that Iran and Russia are partners in the war in Syria, and in supporting and maintaining the Assad regime, but believes that the gaps in their positions are gradually widening for the political future in Syria, and increased tension on the backdrop of tension between Iran and America in the Gulf.

Military confrontation
From a military point of view, Ron Ben Yishai, a military analyst on the Yedioth Ahronoth website, believes that the security summit, which comes at the height of the escalation in the Gulf, can not be separated from the backdrop of the nuclear agreement and the imposition of sanctions on Tehran, and the common interests of Tel Aviv, Washington and Moscow. As for the reforms in Syria and the survival of the Assad regime - as requested by Moscow - in exchange for the removal of Iran and its removal from Syrian territory.

Ben Yishai believes that Israel is ready for any emergency and does not rule out a military confrontation in the Gulf. Tel Aviv also expects Tehran to transfer the war to Israel via the Gaza Strip. Fronts with Gaza using the Islamic Jihad and Hamas movements, on the front with Lebanon through Hezbollah and through the Iranian forces (Quds Force) in Syria.

In the face of Israeli aspiration to direct US President Donald Trump to a military strike on Iran, even if limited, the military analyst believes that Iran has a real interest at the moment of friction and war with Israel in order to pressure the Europeans, and then press on Trump to ease the sanctions on Tehran, At the negotiating table with a promise not to demand that it abandon its demands to enrich uranium and develop ballistic missiles.

Ben Yishai concludes that Israel must be prepared this summer for large-scale confrontations in the north and south, whether as a result of an Iranian initiative or as a result of an event or series of events on the ground that no one expected.

He points out that the Israeli army conducted maneuvers for various military units with the participation of the air force, naval and ground forces, simulating the outbreak of confrontations on several fronts and a war with Hezbollah inside Lebanese territory.

Strengthening NATO
Diplomatic analyst Ben Caspit believes that the tripartite summit is an Israeli attempt to strengthen the US-Russian alliance against Iran, which will not remain idle in the face of American pressure and sanctions on the Iranian economy, and Washington's attempt to strip Tehran of nuclear weapons and prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons. A nuclear weapon, a common interest of Tel Aviv and Washington.

Ben Caspit believes that the possibilities of Iranian provocation with Israel are many and varied, and have been analyzed in the Israeli security forums in detail this week, pointing out that Iran has a sophisticated toolkit on its various fronts towards Israel, and can use part or all as needed.

"The Iranian goal is to prove to Trump that Iran has the ability to target, inflict, and cause widespread damage to US interests in the region and to Washington's allies," says the Israeli analyst.