Confrontations in northern Syria .. Do reflect the disagreement of the guarantors of the agreement of Astana?

Mohammed al-Jazairi, north of Syria

The interests of the guarantors of the Astana agreement have been evident since the start of the offensive by the Syrian regime and Russia on the reduction zone in the northern provinces of Hama and Idlib, where Russia is pressing Turkey to link the East Euphrates file to the Idlib file. Iran has preferred to neutralize its militias.

Observers say that the lack of participation of Iranian militias was due to the Turkish-Iranian rapprochement after the imposition of US sanctions on Iran and Turkey's purchase of oil from Iran, and Tehran's unwillingness to lose the Turkish position.

Some believe that the growing financial crisis in Iran has been a burden on the continued funding of loyal militias and the bill of war; attacking the last strongholds of the armed opposition will be fiercely opposed to defense.

Military analyst Colonel Ahmad Hamadeh says that Russia is conducting military operations in the region, there is no military decision of the regime's forces, and that the Russians are pretending to distance themselves from Iran but they are allies and have one goal.

Hamadeh adds that Iran is present in all Syrian geographies militarily and culturally. It has many militias and is unlikely to be far from any military action, but the economic siege has affected some of its militias.

Strategic importance
Russia attaches great importance to the areas of the fortress of the Strait and the plain of the jungle on the pretext of protecting Hamimim base from any attacks by aircraft marching by the opposition.

Russia threatened to storm the area about a year ago and establish points of concentration there, which caused a wave of mass displacement. The Russians at the time demanded that the population and the revolutionary factions accept the entry of Russian police forces and still insist on it to this day, although they could not impose it Through the Astana Agreement.

Military analyst Brigadier General Ahmed Rahal says Russia's claim is that its interests are to protect the innocent, and Russia knows that the opposition can not fly the planes there.

Rahal added that one of the main reasons for Russia's attack on Idlib is to punish Turkey for its agreement with the US East Euphrates, and that the Russians are in trouble after failing to impose a political solution, so they tried to impose a military solution.

Military failure
The regime's forces could not achieve the gains they had expected by controlling international routes, despite the use of all military capabilities and scorched earth policy, where the opposition factions had adopted new means of resistance that had not been announced.

"We can not show the military tactics used in the current battles to ensure the proper conduct of the fighting," said Nafi, a spokesman for the National Liberation Front (NFL).

He adds that the regime takes revenge on the popular incubator of the rebel factions by pressing it, and "committing massacres when it fails militarily."

According to opposition statistics, the regime has killed hundreds, many of whom have already been recruited by the regime from areas it controlled last year.