"Ukrainians are waiting for a miracle": what problems will be solved by President Vladimir Zelensky

The inauguration of the elected President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, took place on May 20 in the Verkhovna Rada. He took the oath of allegiance to the Ukrainian people and officially assumed the office of head of state.

During the ceremony, Zelensky made a number of loud statements. First of all, he appealed to all Ukrainians on the planet with the call “to go to Ukraine not to visit, but to go home” and to bring from abroad “their experience and their mental values”.

Zelensky announced the dissolution of parliament, called on Rada to cancel parliamentary immunity, and also offered to resign the government and urged Rada to dismiss the head of the SBU Vasily Gritsak, Prosecutor General Yury Lutsenko, and Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak.

“Vladimir Zelensky was able to shock both the government and Rada with his statements. Requiring the government to write resignation statements, Rada - to dissolve and expel law enforcement officials right away - a strong move, nothing can be said. But if everyone leaves, who will rule the country? Not to mention that such statements are political in nature and not supported by law. Someone saw the decree of Zelensky to dissolve parliament? He is not. But Zelensky turned against himself all the political elite at once. It must be able to. Either he has a specific plan, or he is just a bold and narrow-minded novice politician, ”commented source RT in Blok Petro Poroshenko.

"Uncontrollable Parliament"

Relations with the current parliament at Zelensky did not work out immediately after the victory of the actor in the second round. After the announcement of the official results of the vote, the country's parliament was demanding a consideration of the date when the new head of state took office, fearing dissolution.

Zelensky insisted on holding the inauguration on May 19. The situation was resolved on the 16th - 315 deputies appointed a date on May 20, although legislation allowed them to set a later date (the deadline was June 3), not allowing dissolution.

Nevertheless, the Rada acted differently, trying to take advantage of loopholes in the country's legal system. On May 17, the Popular Front faction announced its withdrawal from the parliamentary coalition. Under this pretext, the deputies decided to initiate the creation of a new association, which would not allow the parliament to be dissolved. However, this did not work.

According to Zelensky’s supporters, the former coalition “European Ukraine”, which in November 2014 included the Popular Front, the Petro Poroshenko Bloc (BPP), the Batkivshchyna, Self-Help and the Radical Party, de facto disintegrated as early as 2016 Dmitry Razumkov, an adviser to the president-elect, told reporters that there are no legal obstacles to signing a decree dissolving the Rada.

• Session Hall of the Verkhovna Rada
• Reuters
• © Valentyn Ogirenko

Political scientists note that Zelensky was unprofitable to work with the current deputies because of the lack of loyal political forces in it. The dissolution of the Rada will allow to hold early elections in which the party of the new president, “The Servant of the People”, can get the majority of seats. According to the poll of the Rating group, it is supported by 40% of citizens.

“The dissolution of the Rada is an obvious solution, based on the current situation. Zelensky need to hold elections as quickly as possible. At the moment, there are electoral backlog left from the presidential election. In order not to lose this support very quickly, of course, he needs to hold early elections as soon as possible in the shortest possible time, ”said Denis Denisov, director of the Research Institute for Peacemaking Initiatives and Conflictology, in an interview with RT.

Recall, according to the Constitution, Ukraine is a parliamentary-presidential republic. Without the approval of the Rada, the head of state cannot approve the composition of the government.

Waiting for re-election

After the inauguration ceremony, Vladimir Zelensky invited the leaders of the parliamentary factions to hold consultations on the dissolution of the Rada. This was told by the leader of the “Self-help” faction Oleg Bereziuk.

According to experts, Zelensky will not be easy to find a common language with the current parliament.

“Before the elections, Zelensky’s work will be paralyzed, and the government and the security forces will most likely remain in their places,” a spokesman for the Popular Front Party said in an interview with RT.

The level of trust of Ukrainian citizens in the current parliament is extremely low (about 4%) - 38% of Ukrainians favor its dissolution. This is stated in the recently published study of the Rating and the Social Monitoring Center.

“Based on the current conjuncture, Zelensky can get not an absolute majority, but the largest faction on the basis of which, a parliamentary majority can later be formed,” said Denis Denisov.

However, before the parliamentary elections, Zelensky will not be able to place his people in key positions, except for representatives of his own administration, the representative of the Radical Party explained in a conversation with RT.

“In this case, the cabinet will resign only after the elections. Today, everything looks like Zelensky must reckon with the uncontrollable parliament and the uncontrolled government, ”the interlocutor of RT states.

In turn, a representative in the Batkivshchyna party told RT that the nearest plans of the team of the elected president are to lure the regional elites to their side, including the heads of regional and state administrations (RSA), who are now loyal to Poroshenko. This will allow Zelensky to increase the so-called administrative resource and prevent falsification in parliamentary elections.

• Ukrainian oligarch Igor Kolomoisky
• Reuters
• © Valentyn Ogirenko

Deputy Dean of the Faculty of World Economy and Politics, HSE Andrei Suzdaltsev, in the RT commentary, drew attention to the shortage of competent personnel in the "holder of the elected president." In this regard, the new head of state will be forced to compromise with Poroshenko, his entourage, and at the same time try to poach people from the clan of the former Ukrainian leader. The expert also believes that Zelensky will take advantage of "Kolomoisky resources."

“I have no doubt that quite a few officials and deputies are“ re-entering ”, declaring loyalty to Zelensky. But without the support of Kolomoisky, the new president will definitely not hold out for the first time. This is an extremely influential person who is able to come to an agreement with whom it is necessary to solve a lot of personnel issues: the appointment of ministers, heads of the RSA, promotion to the Rada of loyal political forces, bribing officials and deputies, ”Suzdaltsev stressed.

According to a RT source in the Radical Party, Vladimir Zelensky has a team of advisers, but “he makes decisions on his own or not — it’s hard to say.”

“Businessman Sergei Tigipko correctly stated that one trip to Washington would change the rhetoric of the new Ukrainian president immediately. Now Zelensky is saying what people need, and that’s why he sharply demanded a re-election to parliament. But the president does not have a strong team, especially in the field. Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko, on the contrary, have it. Therefore, it is still unknown who will win. At the same time, Zelensky is already beginning to make mistakes that can cost him dearly. To set everyone against themselves in Ukrainian politics is like death. His every step will criticize a huge number of people. It can all end in a long depression, not real reforms, ”said the representative of the Radical Party.

"High expectations"

In addition to the bitter domestic political struggle, the main challenge for Zelensky as president will be the difficult socio-economic situation, which has led to an explosive growth of poverty in the country. The impoverishment of the population of Ukraine is caused by a strong fall in GDP. According to the IMF, after the "Maidan" the volume of gross domestic product in dollar terms collapsed almost twice.

Since 2016, Ukraine has witnessed an economic recovery, but GDP growth is being eaten by the devaluation of the hryvnia (since 2014, the national currency's exchange rate to the dollar has fallen three times) and high inflation (over 8%). The situation is aggravated by the level of public debt relative to GDP (60%). Since 2016, the country is on the verge of default.

In addition, Zelensky must find ways to fulfill his promise to reduce tariffs for utility services - over the past five years they have increased several times. In particular, the price of gas for the population until March 2015 was 1–1.3 hryvnia per cubic meter, and now it is more than 8.

According to the research of the Rating and Social Monitoring, voters expect a noticeable improvement in their standard of living from Zelensky. Citizens expect that the policy of the elected president will lead to a decrease in prices for goods, a reduction in utility tariffs, an increase in salaries and various social benefits.

The socio-economic demands of Ukrainians are logical, said Andrei Suzdaltsev. According to him, the citizens of Ukraine "otrezvili" failing "Euro-integration" reforms Poroshenko. At the same time, as the expert believes, now the population has the same “high social expectations” as after the “Maidan”.

“Ukrainians are waiting for a miracle. They hope for an instant correction of the situation, the solution of the most pressing problems. And this naivety is one of the reasons for the phenomenal success of Zelensky, who famously and wittily criticized Poroshenko for low wages and high tariffs. The accusations against the former president were justified, but the economic situation in the country is hopeless. And no one from the Zelensky team has any idea how to improve it, ”said Suzdaltsev.

• Participants of the rally against raising utility tariffs in Kiev
• RIA News

In turn, a member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of Russia, Bogdan Bezpalko, in the RT comment, stressed that the team of the elected head of the Ukrainian state does not have a clear plan for economic reforms. The government of the new leader of Ukraine will support the economy mainly through Western loans and the restructuring of accumulated debts, the expert is convinced.

“Zelensky inherited a country with a rapidly degrading industry. The West does not need high-tech products, and Poroshenko has closed the Russian market for it. This is a direct consequence of the European integration and anti-Russian hysteria. At the same time, there are no prerequisites and tools to bring the Ukrainian economy at least in minimal order, ”explained Bezpalko.

"Fully pro-Western politician"

Citizens of Ukraine expect from Zelensky serious success in relations with Russia and in resolving the conflict in the Donbas. From the results of opinion polls, it follows that 41% of the country's population supports direct negotiations with Moscow and the heads of the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics.

At the inauguration ceremony, Zelensky called the end of the armed conflict in Donbass his main task and stressed that he was ready to do anything to stop the conflict in the region.

“Our first task is a cease-fire in the Donbass,” the new president of Ukraine said.

At the same time, Zelensky stated that he was not going to fulfill some points of the Minsk agreements, in particular, he was not prepared to amnesty the parties to the conflict in Donbas and to grant special status to the DPR and the LPR.

“Zelensky’s statements about the Donbass during the inauguration are completely empty, this is already part of some unspoken tradition, because according to the same sociological research, this issue is of the greatest concern to the citizens of Ukraine. However, neither Zelensky, nor his entourage still have not heard any specifics about the resolution of the conflict in the Donbas, ”said Denis Denisov.

Zelensky has a very vague position on such a matter of principle for the Russian-speaking part of Ukraine as the law “On ensuring the functioning of the Ukrainian language as the state language”. The document assumes total Ukrainization of almost all spheres of public life. May 15 Poroshenko signed it. It should take effect in two months.

Suzdaltsev believes that Zelensky’s policy towards Donbas and Russian-speaking citizens will not change, and the new president will not repeal the law on language.

“In his electoral speeches, Zelensky could have seemed such a“ dove of peace ”against the background of Poroshenko’s militant slogans. But there are no prerequisites for changing attitudes towards unrecognized republics and dialogue with them, although the Minsk agreements suggest just that. At the same time, the Normandy format ordered to live long in 2016, and Zelensky’s coming to power will not revive him, ”said Suzdaltsev.

According to the expert, if the new president of Ukraine does not enter into direct negotiations with the Russian leader, this could lead to a collapse of Zelensky’s rating and a “crisis of legitimacy.” Most of the citizens of Ukraine, as noted by Suzdaltsev, “ate” anti-Russian rhetoric and realizes that without normal relations with Russia, it is impossible to develop the country and solve Donbas issues.

“Zelensky is a completely pro-Western politician, but if he continues to take a radical position in the Russian Federation and Donbas, he will lose the support of at least half of the voters. Whether he wants to or not, a meeting with the Russian leader has always been a way to legitimize power for the Ukrainian presidents. The value of Russia is very large. Moreover, Moscow remains the leading investor and trading partner of Ukraine, ”explained Suzdaltsev.

• President-elect of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky
• globallookpress.com

Bogdan Bezpalko, for his part, believes that Zelensky’s anti-Russian statements are due to his desire to please the West, emphasizing loyalty to the confrontational course that the United States conducts against Moscow. Now, as the expert argues, Washington and the EU are “eyeing” the elected president and are consulting him on key issues.

“The West needs from Zelensky humility and control. Poroshenko is frankly tired of it, because with his insatiable lust for power he created a lot of problems, especially for the Americans. How Zelensky will be obedient depends on the results of his struggle with the clan of the former president. At the moment, you can definitely say only one thing - as before, Kiev will unsuccessfully knock on the doors of NATO and the EU, ”concluded Bezpalko.