Experts warn of the outbreak of the Gulf

Experts and observers have warned that any party in the Gulf region will take an uncalculated step that could ignite a fierce war. As Iran and the United States escalate, and after mysterious sabotage operations targeting oil tankers on the coast of the UAE, since when.

The Iranian official in the International Crisis Group in Washington Ali preacher that the possibility of a confrontation, even without provocative work, "high", considering that the fact that each party believes that the other does not want war increases the risk of confrontation, there is a margin of errors of interpretation, Communication between the parties.

The preacher is likely to launch a limited military offensive against Iran, which may respond in a limited way, while the parties hope that everyone will keep calm to avoid a major confrontation.

"There is a real risk of ignition," said the director of forecasts at the Economist's London-based Economist group.

If the situation does not ignite a war, tensions will persist as long as Donald Trump remains president. It would be in the interest of the US foreign policy hawks to adopt a tough policy to divert voters' attention from the US economy.

Jean-Sylvester Mgrognier of the French-Belgian Institute Thomas Moore says the region is experiencing a double state of war and peace, with varying intensity and successive crises without resolving basic problems.

He wonders, "How long can the benefits be deferred and the payment of the cash payment is deferred?"

Fears of recklessness
On the other hand, the Middle East adviser at the French Institute for International Relations, Donnie Bushar, says that US and Israeli military leaders are trying to calm the situation. Iran is also committed to restraint, but there are hawks on both sides, such as White House national security adviser John Bolton and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.

Bouchar warned that the spark would be sparked by the allies of the two countries or from others, such as targeting Houthis Saudi Arabian oil tanker in the Red Sea, the response to Iran itself, especially as the Americans vowing Tehran to respond "strongly against any attack against the interests of the United States or its allies" .

"There are a lot of unknown things in these attacks," says Risky & Co.'s risk analyst, Anne Sophie-Marie. "Among the hypotheses is that Saudis and Emiratis were the ones who prepared the attacks from In order to drag the Americans to respond militarily to Iran. "

Another assumption is that the Iranians themselves or their proxies did so, but Mary ruled out the third hypothesis that a terrorist group might have committed sabotage.