Since President Trump's accession to power in 2017, the firm theme of his foreign policy has been his firm stance towards Iran. In a fundamental change to his predecessor, Trump undermined the nuclear deal with Iran and replaced it with Iran's strategy. The key element in this strategy "focuses on neutralizing the destabilizing Iranian influence and curbing its aggression." US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a speech that the Iranian regime had used the money it had obtained through the nuclear agreement to fund "proxy wars in the Middle East" In the face of Iran, Pompeo said that the United States "will exert unprecedented financial pressure on the Iranian regime." Although financial pressure is necessary to prevent Iran's ability to support terrorism, it is not in itself a comprehensive strategy to get Iran out of Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon.

These days, Iran's evil activities go beyond mere financial support to some covert terrorist groups, now entrenching themselves in Iraq and Syria, waging a proxy war in Yemen, arming and training Shiite groups in Lebanon and other parts of the region. In fact, Iran's growing threat can not be dealt with in isolation from two important factors: the nature of Iran's geo-ideological thinking, and the regional security context in which Iran is expanding. To understand Iran's expansionist behavior, one must first understand the Iranian logic of expansion.

Since the revolution of 1979, the Iranian regime believed that the export of its religious political revolution was necessary for its continuation. During Iran's calculations, economic growth and national prosperity are subject to the ideology of expansion. It is therefore wrong to assume that the Iranian regime will respond rationally to economic sanctions. Indeed, Iran has been able to expand its influence and build its nuclear program, despite the economic sanctions imposed on it since 1979, giving an indication of its basic priorities, as well as its conduct under these sanctions.

Regional factors

But despite its ideological persistence, most of Iran's expansion was more about regional factors than the Iranian regime's ideology. Iran has used two interconnected mechanisms in the region: the internal mechanism of failed states, the mechanism of superpower competition and intervention. In addition to making use of these mechanisms at the global and regional levels, Iran has exploited the chaos caused by these two mechanisms in the region to mobilize local and cross-border militias in the target countries.

The US invasion of Iraq in 2003 provided Iran with a golden opportunity to penetrate its arch-enemy long ago. The Iranian regime used the American occupation as a pretext to expand in Iraq and as an ideological lever for its intervention in this country. US sectarian politics in Iraq have helped Iran build strong sectarian ties, not only with Shiite Iraqi governments, but even more seriously, Iran has established a network with Shiite militias, some of which fought US forces, and remains a major threat to Iraq and the region in general. Despite US sanctions and military presence in Iraq, Iran has political, economic, and ideological influence in this country. A senior Iranian official described Iraq as "another channel for Iran to circumvent the unjust US sanctions."

A new opportunity

In 2011, the so-called "Arab Spring" provided another opportunity for Iran to expand in other countries. All the conditions that allowed Iran to expand in Iraq were in Syria, such as the intervention of major powers, the weak government, and the chaotic environment appropriate to the Syrian civil war among a large number of parties. Unlike its operations in Iraq, Iranian operations in Syria were backed by a superpower, Russia. While Russia supported the traditional side of the conflict, Iran used its ideological influence to call on Shiite fighters from around the world to protect Shiite religious sites in Syria.

This kind of mobilization has helped Iran establish a network of extremist militias, which will form the security and ideological environment in Syria for years to come. American indifference in Syria has not only encouraged Iranian-backed militias in Syria, but also Iran's agents in other parts of the region, especially the Huthis in Yemen.

Through Iranian support, the Houthis became the first militias to possess ballistic missiles in the region, threatening the entire region. In 2015, after the Houthi rebellion against the elected government in Yemen, the United States, the United Kingdom and France supported the Saudi-led Arab coalition to restore security and order in Yemen. But the United States is giving up its support for the Arab coalition.

In March 2019, in an attempt to rebuke President Trump, the US Congress voted to end most of America's concrete support for the Arab Alliance, by halting the supply of air fuel to coalition aircraft. "The right way to alleviate the suffering of the Yemeni people is not by prolonging the conflict, blocking our partners from fighting, but by giving the Saudi-led coalition the support it needs to defeat the Iranian-backed rebels and ensuring a just peace," he said. In fact, withdrawing US support for the Arab alliance in Yemen not only undermines Trump's strategy in Iran, but also puts vital US interests in the region at risk.

Involvement is unprecedented

The Iranians are now intervening in the region to destabilize them, as they have reached an unprecedented level before. To get Iran out of the region, we need a strategy that goes beyond financial pressures. The Trump administration has succeeded in curbing Iran's ballistic missile program and supporting terrorism.

But to get rid of Iran's destabilizing influence, Trump's strategy vis-a-vis Iran must be a permanent part of a comprehensive American strategy not only for Iran, the most important being Iran-dominated states. A firm and firm American position is needed to reassure Washington's allies that it will deter the aggressors and provide Iran-dominated countries with a reasonable alternative and allies.

So far, US policies toward Iraq, Syria, and Yemen seem to undermine Iran's strategy. A US withdrawal or a minimal reduction in the region at this stage will contribute to conditions that increase Iran's geopolitical expansion in the first place .

• Iran has been able to expand its influence and build its nuclear program, despite the economic sanctions imposed on it, since 1979, giving an indication of its basic priorities, in addition to its conduct under these sanctions.

• Through Iranian support, the Houthis became the first militias to possess ballistic missiles in the region.

Saad Al-Subaie is an international security researcher at the National Council on US-Arab Relations