The oil sheet and Bab al-Mandab .. when the wind is opposed to Saudi ships

Mohammed Benkasem - Al Jazeera Net

Saudi Arabia last Wednesday made an unusual decision in its war against Yemen, in response to the targeting of two Saudi oil tankers in Bab al-Mandab by a missile. Riyadh immediately suspended all its oil exports through Bab al-Mandab, the fourth most important international trade corridor.

The analysis showed that Saudi Arabia wanted to exert pressure on the superpowers, especially America, to escalate the situation towards the Huthis and their ally Iran. However, the following days showed that Saudi Arabia's betting on the effect of its decision did not produce the desired results.

After the decision of the Saudi authorities to suspend the export of its oil through Bab al-Mandab, global oil prices rose by 1%, approaching the price of $ 75 a barrel, but this rise was temporary and did not continue, which did not hurt the accounts of the decision-maker Saudi who targeted the decision to stop exports Oil through Bab al-Mandab pushed crude prices higher as tensions escalated in a vital corridor for the international oil trade and thus mobilized international support for the Saudi-led war on the Huthis as a serious threat to international energy security.

However, oil prices soon fell rapidly after rising from the Saudi decision, and settled in the past few days above the price of $ 74 a little.

The importance of Bab al-Mandab is that it is a corridor of five million tons of oil a day and about 10% of the world's liquefied natural gas trade, but its geographical nature makes it easy to target the ships that pass through it. The Strait is a major corridor leading to the Suez Canal, which accounts for 12% of the world trade volume.

Saudi oil exports through Bab al-Mandab are estimated at 500,000 to 750,000 bpd, according to analysts and Reuters.

Limited effect
And excluded players in the global oil market since the first day to push the attack Houthi on two Saudi oil tankers and the subsequent Saudi decision to a significant rise in global prices of crude, the US news site "S & B Globe," a specialist in commodity trade and metals, analysts in the market The oil said that with the exception of the Saudi oil tankers, the movement of tankers is conducted naturally in the Red Sea to Bab al-Mandab.

Oil and shipping sources said Riyadh's suspension of oil exports via Bab al-Mandab would not affect its supplies to Asia, but could increase shipping costs for Saudi ships bound for Europe and the United States due to increased distances.

Saudi Arabia's state-owned Saudi Aramco is still able to lease foreign ships to transport its crude. Riyadh also has a five-million-barrel (bpd) Petrolane pipeline, Its route extends to Yanbu on the Red Sea, maintaining a good flow of supplies to Europe and North America.

UAE and Kuwait
In addition to the oil and shipping market, the decision by Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter of crude oil, to suspend its exports through Bab al-Mandab, has found no real support, either from its closest ally in the alliance, the United Arab Emirates, or from large Gulf oil states such as Kuwait. But Kuwait did not decide to stop them, which means that the estimates of the two countries to the seriousness of the situation did not match Saudi appreciation.

These developments did not serve Saudi Arabia's goal of exploiting the incident targeting the Houthis to the oil tankers to rally the regional and international position against them and to attract support for the war led by Riyadh in Yemen, which did not achieve the military decision it was talking about from the beginning.

On the political front, the Saudi decision did not receive strong support from regional institutions that historically were areas of traditional Saudi influence such as the Gulf Cooperation Council and the League of Arab States. None of them issued a statement endorsing Riyadh's decision to use pressure to win the war. Years ago in Yemen.

The American position
One of the factors that weakened the Saudi decision to suspend exports through Bab al-Mandab is the nature of the US administration's reaction to what happened. Officials in the administration of President Donald Trump said after the Houthi attack on July 25 that Washington is considering the military options available to keep Waterways in the Middle East are open.

However, US Defense Secretary James Matisse denied last Friday that his country had a plan to strike Iran or change its regime, but Matisse threatened that the response would be international if Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which part of the Gulf oil exports.

US officials have stressed that even if Washington decides to move militarily against Iran because of its threat to international shipping corridors, it will not be carried out by US forces, but will be carried out through America's allies in the region, such as the Saudis.