Since the announcement by the US president to cancel the exemptions on Iranian oil exports and the region is living near the atmosphere of war, waiting for a crucial date amid questions about the ability of the parties to the conflict to implement their threats.

US President Donald Trump decided in May 2018 to withdraw from Iran's nuclear deal signed between Tehran and the five major countries plus Germany in 2015, with a renewal of the sanctions already imposed by those countries, and the adoption of additional sanctions entered into force on 4 November II.

On July 2, 2018, Iranian President Hassan Rowhani said that preventing his country from exporting its oil meant that no one in the region would be able to export its oil, referring to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq. Qatar also shares a natural gas field and exports it to the Straits Hormuz.

The most important artery of world oil
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow sea corridor between Iran and Oman. The Arabian Gulf reaches the Gulf of Oman on the one hand and the Arabian Sea in the Indian Ocean on the other. Its maximum width is 50 kilometers at a depth of 60 meters and the entry and exit corridors are only 10.5 kilometers. To 30 oil tankers a day coming from Saudi Arabia, which exports about 88% of its oil production across the strait, and higher rates for both Iraq and the UAE, while Kuwait and Qatar export all its oil across the strait.

The Strait of Hormuz absorbs about 30 to 40 per cent of the world's oil trade by more than 17 million barrels per day. There are no alternatives available to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Iraq to export oil from the ports of Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and some Saudi and Iraqi ports.

The waters of the strait in the Arabian Gulf are international, and any closure would affect international commercial shipping, not just regional ones, according to statements made by US Central Command spokesman Colonel Ereel Brown on Wednesday.

The United States and its allies are committed to protecting the freedom of maritime navigation and the route of global commercial water channels in the region, while preparing to face any threats to international freedom of navigation.

No exceptions after today
The United States on Monday canceled all exemptions on Iran's oil exports, stressing punitive measures it would take from May 2 against countries that do not abide by the latest US decision announced Monday (April 22nd) not to extend exemptions to some oil importers Iran to continue buying without facing US sanctions, since the start of the previous phase of the ban on export on 4 November 2018.

A White House statement said the US president intended to ensure that Iranian oil exports would become "zero" and thus deprive Iran of its primary source of income.

The decision by the United States to suspend the eight countries covered by US exemptions (China, India, Turkey, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Italy and Greece) to buy Iranian oil after the expiration of the six-month exemptions.

However, Iranian officials believe that with the continuation or non-continuation of exemptions, "Iranian oil exports will not reach zero in any way unless the Iranian authorities decide to stop its oil, which is not currently possible."

Iran sees the US decision as "worthless" as its foreign relations continue to liaise with its neighbors and European partners to avoid the negative effects of the resolution.

On the other hand, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has stepped up its threats to close the strait again. The commander of the Revolutionary Guards' naval forces, Ali Reza Tengseiri, said that "Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz if it is prevented from using it."

"In the case of any threat, there will be no doubt that Iran will protect and defend its waters," said Tenxiri of international law, which considers the Strait of Hormuz a "sea corridor in accordance with international law and will not benefit anyone if we are prevented from using it."

Iran has made similar threats from time to time, which may recur more than once in a year since the United States began putting pressure on it in 2012 to curb its nuclear program and develop long-range missiles that could reach Arab states in the Gulf and Israel.

Iran's threats to close the strait come as part of an equation that if the United States and Western countries insist on preventing the world from buying oil, the only option is not to allow any oil-carrying ship to pass from any other country.

Iran believes that the threat of closing the strait or taking an initial practical step in this direction will lead to turmoil in the world oil market and high energy prices in those countries. This will prompt the United States and European countries to conduct immediate negotiations with Tehran, in which some concessions will be made in response to Iranian demands to ease sanctions. on her.

In the face of US policies, Iran is using the threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz to counter US pressure.

What after the threat?
In practice, Iran can easily close the strait by planting sea mines or using the Revolutionary Guards' speedboats, as well as a number of warships to patrol the waters along the strait. But the most important question is whether the strait can be kept closed for long periods with serious US threats "A military response to any Iranian attempt to close the strait.

Despite the high frequency of Iran's threats this time and in previous times as well, it did not take any practical steps in violation of international laws governing international traffic.

There are no realistic prospects for Iran to close the strait, but such a move would cause problems and reactions that could threaten internal repercussions for the system, which suffers from internal social and economic problems.

Iran's threats to close the strait may also be the start of a regional war in which Gulf states may be embroiled in the view that the strait is part of its national security and a strategic corridor for its oil flow to the world.

On the other hand, it is likely that the United States and allied countries will take no immediate countermeasures if Iran decides to close the Strait of Hormuz, fearing the outbreak of open confrontations out of the control of the actors and lead to a state of instability in the region and the possibility of interference by regional states complicate the situation.

The United States and its allies are expected to find themselves faced with the reality of restraint and an escalation of the situation, pending the reopening of the strait by Iran to international shipping.