Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov declared Moscow’s readiness to become a platform for dialogue between Delhi and Islamabad. Earlier, Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that the Kremlin is extremely concerned about the escalation of the Indo-Pakistani conflict and is closely following the situation.
On the morning of February 28, an exchange of artillery shelling occurred on the demarcation line between India and Pakistan in Kashmir. As reported by Asian News International, the Pakistani military personnel were the first to strike. The shootout lasted about an hour. At the moment, the victims and the destruction is not known.
A day earlier, on February 27, an air battle began between the planes of the two countries, during which the Indian MiG-21bis UPG (Bison) was shot down. The fighter pilot managed to eject. According to the Pakistani authorities, two planes were shot down, after landing the pilots were taken prisoner. The Indian side claims that Pakistan also suffered losses. In particular, the F-16 fighter was allegedly destroyed by the R-73E missile. The fate of the pilot is not reported.
On February 28, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan announced that the authorities intend to hand over one of the pilots of India.
“We decided to release on Friday the captured Indian pilot as a peaceful gesture,” Khan said. He also called for a de-escalation of the situation, stressing that India and Pakistan must "live in peace."
A multi-purpose Mi-17V-5 helicopter of the Indian Air Force also crashed in Kashmir. The disaster occurred in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. All crew members died, but Pakistani authorities deny involvement in the incident.
The escalation of the conflict between Delhi and Islamabad led to changes in the flight routes of civilian ships. For some time Pakistan closed its airspace. India did the same, banning flights over the north of the country.
The source of the military-political contradictions of India and Pakistan over the past few decades has been a dispute over the former principality of Jammu and Kashmir, which was part of the British Empire. In 1947, the state of Pakistan was formed in the north of the Indian subcontinent, which considered Kashmir part of its territory. The unresolved conflicts between India and Pakistan led to several wars (in 1947–48, 1965, and 1971) and dozens of brief clashes.
Today, India controls 60% of the territory of the former principality. There is still no official border in the Kashmir region between the countries.
Much of the conflict between the two states is complicated by the religious factor. Most of the population of Pakistan - 96% - are Muslims, the remaining 4% are religious minorities: Hindus, Christians, Sikhs, Buddhists and others.
- Indian soldiers in the Kashmir line of demarcation
- AFP
- © RAKESH BAKSHI
In a conversation with RT, Azhdar Kurtov, editor-in-chief of the journal Problems of National Strategy of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies (RISI), noted that religious tensions between Muslims and representatives of other faiths existed during the time of the British Empire. After its liquidation, the conflict entered a more acute phase.
“The fact that we are seeing today, of course, is the fault of the British colonial authorities. However, to a greater degree the conflict is caused by a mass of objective factors. In 1947, the statehood of India and Pakistan took place. It was a period of rapid growth of national identity. Each side sought to assert itself at the expense of its neighbor. Blood has been shed that Delhi and Islamabad still cannot forgive each other, ”said Kurtov.
“The time for negotiations has passed”
Armed clashes on the demarcation line in Kashmir began after a major terrorist attack that occurred on February 14 in the state of Jammu and Kashmir in the city of Pulwama. A suicide bomber sent a car filled with explosives to a convoy of Indian soldiers. The victims of the explosion were 45 people.
Responsibility for the attack was claimed by the Pakistani Jaish-e-Mohammed group (the Army of the Prophet Mohammed. - RT ). In Delhi, Islamabad was accused of supporting radical formations and involvement in the terrorist attack. Pakistani authorities have refuted, noting that they have nothing to do with undermining the convoy.
“The brutal terrorist attack in Pulvam showed that the time for negotiations had passed. Now it is necessary for the whole world to unite against terrorism and those who support it. Our response will be proportionate ... We will not allow our neighbor to destabilize the situation, ”said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi after the incident.
On February 26, 12 Indian Mirage 2000 fighters destroyed the Jaish-e-Mohammed bases located on its territory. According to the Times of India, strikes were inflicted on militant camps in Balakot, Muzafarabad and Chakoti, about 300 radicals were killed during the bombing.
In response, on February 27, the Pakistani Air Force flew over military targets in the Indian part of Kashmir and dropped several bombs at some distance from them. According to Islamabad, the action was aimed at demonstrating the ability of Pakistan’s aviation to strike back.
As reported by Times of India, near the line of demarcation concentrated many aviation units and military facilities of both countries. In particular, Indian fighter planes are deployed at 15 airfields, and Pakistani aircraft - by 11. At the same time, the publication notes that Delhi exceeds Islamabad in size of its fleet (2.18 thousand vehicles against 1.28 thousand in the region), but about a third of the planes and helicopters of India are not combat-ready and need to be repaired.
Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor of MGIMO Sergey Lunev believes that, despite the exacerbation of relations between countries, there should be no serious escalation of the conflict. India and Pakistan may exchange blows at each other’s territories, but they will not risk large-scale military operations, the expert said in a conversation with RT.
“I want to emphasize that the institute of the army in Pakistan is extremely strong and in fact controls the government. There are fanatics among Pakistani generals. However, I think that in the current situation, the military elite of Pakistan will take a low profile. India also will not aggravate, but will respond in case of provocation or aggression, ”said Lunev.
- Fighter of the Indian Air Force MiG-21bis
- AFP
- © DIBYANGSHU SARKAR
Andrei Karneev, Deputy Director of the Institute of Asian and African Countries at Moscow State University, also does not expect large-scale confrontation between India and Pakistan. In an interview with RT, the expert said that the policy of Russia and China could play a positive role in reducing tensions.
“It is believed that in this conflict, Moscow is more supportive of India, and Beijing - Pakistan. This point of view is not devoid of meaning. But now it can be stated unequivocally that Russia and China are interested in an early cease-fire on both sides. Of course, China and India have many sharp contradictions, including on territorial issues, but no anti-Indian alliance between Pakistan and China will emerge, ”said Karneyev.
RT interlocutors believe that the most important deterrent in the Indo-Pakistani conflict remains nuclear weapons. India received the status of a nuclear power in 1974, Pakistan - in 1998. According to the Federation of American Scientists, as of November 2018, there are 140 nuclear warheads in the arsenal of Delhi, Islamabad is 150.
“To lure India to your side”
On February 28, commenting on the exacerbation of the situation in Kashmir, US President Donald Trump said that the United States is acting as an intermediary in the confrontation between Delhi and Islamabad. However, according to Azhdar Kurtov, Washington, on the contrary, is interested in escalating the conflict.
“Trump is not the case imposes the laurels of a peacemaker. The role of the States cannot be characterized on the positive side. Washington benefits from the escalation that has taken place in the area of the demarcation line. The United States, as in previous years, will try to earn points in the Indo-Pakistani conflict, ”said Kurtov.
As the expert explained, the US strategic goal is to "lure India to its side." About ten years ago, Pakistan fell out of the American orbit of influence and began to focus on China. For this reason, India is now perceived by the States as a counterweight to Beijing’s influence in the region. But, according to Kurtov, the Americans are unsuccessfully trying to make Delhi their military-political ally, since since 1947 India has consistently been pursuing a policy independent of external forces. On this basis, the current conflict between the two republics is only in the hands of the United States.
“At the same time, the States expect that the Indo-Pakistan conflict will become a tool for“ deterring ”not only China, but also a way of squeezing Russia out of the sphere of military-technical cooperation and developing peaceful atom projects from Delhi. In addition, Washington most likely hopes that the next aggravation in Kashmir will lead to an increase in the export of American weapons to India, ”Kurt concluded.