How many soldiers will overflow in the next few hours to the self-proclaimed interim president and opposition leader Juan Guaidó? This question will determine whether the regime of President Nicolás Maduro collapses or Guaidó fails in its attempt to force the transfer of power in Venezuela.
The answer also depends on how many Venezuelans take to the streets for Guaidó in the next few hours. Without overwhelming support from the people, the military will hardly stand up to Maduro.
At best, Guaidó's push sweeps the regime within hours or days. In the worst case, not as many Venezuelans go to Guaidó as he hoped, and only a part of the soldiers take sides with the opposition. Then, as Guaidó calls his call for a popular uprising, Operation Liberty could end up in a bloodbath. Both options seem possible, which makes the situation in Venezuela so explosive.
What Helps the Young Opposition Leader: The Country Is Bled Economically; There is no prospect of improvement as long as Maduro is in power. Guaidó is recognized by more than 50 nations as interim president, several international organizations and its large neighboring countries Colombia and Brazil support him. The release of his mentor Leopoldo López, who was under house arrest, could only succeed with the help of soldiers who guarded him.
In addition, Guaidó belongs to a new generation of opposition politicians. He does not belong to the old upper class and masters dealing with Facebook and Twitter, his most important weapons. No other Maduro opponent embodies the dreams and hopes of the young Venezuelans as Guaidó, even his role model Leopoldo López not.
The euphoria of the first days of the uprising is gone
But Guaidó is also under pressure: with each day, the pressure to force a solution to the conflict. The opposition and the US government supporting him had miscalculated: they hoped that the armed forces would immediately overrun Guaidó and Maduro would be deposed within a few days. Since then, more than three months have passed, Maduro is still sitting in the Miraflores Palace. The euphoria of the departure threatened to go away.
Every uprising inheres an inner dynamic. So far, Guaidó has determined the dramaturgy, Maduro did not dare so far to arrest Guaidó. Apparently, he is aware of the enormous popularity of his adversary. Nevertheless, he managed to consolidate his position: Moscow and Beijing support him, even the economic sanctions could not shake his power so far. Above all, so far the head of the armed forces was loyal to him.
Video: Government Maduro wants to counter "traitors"
Cristian Hernßndez / Agencia EFE / imago images
Should Guaidó fail to win the majority of soldiers and prolong the stalemate, there will be increasing pressure on the international community to take action in the Venezuelan crisis. That too Guaidó might have included in his calculation.
It is unclear whether he has agreed his move with Washington, as has his car proclamation as interim president. Despite all the threatening gestures, the US government has indicated that it is unwilling to intervene militarily.
Guaidó may be trying to force a military intervention. He could miscalculate again with that. US President Donald Trump seems reluctant to engage in a military adventure in Venezuela a year and a half before the elections.
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Guaidó has recently called on his followers to gather in Plaza Altamira, a traditional opposition rallying ground in eastern Caracas dominated by Maduro opponents. They would have to "measure their capacities" to end the "illegal occupation" by Maduro. For the time being, he seems to forego the "march on Miraflores", as the presidential palace is called. This indicates that the showdown should drag on.
Guaidó, Maduro and all the world's observers will be busy counting blue ribbons in the next few hours and days: the soldiers who defected to Guaidó have tied such ribbons.
They should make it clear which side they stand on.