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The first NATO Secretary-General, Lord Ismay, has made the statement that the Alliance was founded "to keep the Americans indoors, the Soviets out and the Germans small." 70 years after the alliance was founded, the first two issues are as relevant as ever. The third, concerning Germany, on the other hand, was overtaken by history, and moreover, it turned into its opposite.
Today, one of NATO's most urgent concerns has been to make the Germans big. They should, so the Allies see it, finally stop small-mindedness and develop the military capabilities that correspond to Germany's political and economic importance.
Foreign Minister Heiko Maas was allowed to experience this in Washington these days. He was literally pulped by US officials at the 70th anniversary celebration of the Alliance, most notably Vice President Mike Pence.
The reason: The recent budgets of Finance Minister Olaf Scholz (SPD) foresees an increase in the defense budget for the coming year by 4.5 percent to 45.1 billion euros. In the medium term from 2021, however, Scholz plans to lower defense spending again. If Germany does not slide into recession, it would move further away from the goal set by the Allies at the 2014 summit in Wales: "to reach the benchmark of two percent" of their economic performance within ten years.
If Scholz's key data is implemented, Germany's quota will drop from the current 1.37 in 2023 to 1.23 percent. And that, although Chancellor Angela Merkel had promised her allies last year, Germany will reach at least 1.5 percent by 2024.
The Federal Government rejects the criticism of the allies: Security is not only measured by defense spending, it is said, including development policies or diplomatic initiatives that prevent conflicts. One must also take into account the actual abilities and the willingness to participate in international missions.
The two percent target is irrational
All right, the two-percent target is a political number, not a military one. It is set arbitrarily and is based neither on the actual capabilities nor on the needs of the alliance, but on the gross national product. Greece is one of the model boys of NATO only thanks to its weak economic performance. The two percent target is irrational.
It has become a fetish ever since Donald Trump reprimanded the Germans on a weekly basis. And the symbol of an alliance that is preoccupied with itself.
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In addition, defense spending is difficult to calculate uniformly. What exactly counts? And what good is the expenditure of NATO? France, for example, spends 24 percent of its defense budget on pension payments, the US provides only a fraction of its gigantic arms budget to NATO, while the Germans provide almost everything. Some countries include expenses for police, others do not.
In his report "Count Dollars or Measure Values?" Last year, the prestigious Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) proposed a set of criteria that could be used to assess the members' contribution to the Alliance. Among them, the scientists counted on operational readiness and the actual participation in NATO operations and maneuvers, but also the effects of economic sanctions against NATO opponents on individual members and the reception of refugees.
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It makes more sense than input to think of output. In addition, it would finally need a strategic concept of NATO, from which the demand could be derived. What should NATO do? What does it need to guarantee the safety of its members? What does the Bundeswehr need to make an appropriate contribution?
But even if the two-percent target is the wrong benchmark, the criticism of the German contribution in the matter remains justified. Germany's current commitment to European security is not enough. During the Cold War, the Federal Republic has almost always spent between 3 and 5 percent of its economic output on defense. In 1990, the rate was 2.7 percent. Today's world is no safer than it was 30 years ago: the tension with Russia, the military rise of China, the rearmament in the Middle East, the crisis countries in North Africa, the new theater of war in cyberspace are threatening Europe's security.
Germany is also in demand because the US under Trump has repeatedly questioned its security guarantees for the old continent. The German contribution is therefore not only a requirement of fairness, it is necessary to ensure Germany's and Europe's security.