Israel is silent about the Arab movement in Africa and fears its repercussions

Mohamed Mohsen Wedd - Occupied Jerusalem

At a time when official Israel is silent about the movement in Algeria, Sudan and even Libya, research centers and researchers of national security seem more concerned about Israel's concerns about the implications for Israel's influence in Africa and the possibility of producing developments in support of the Palestinian cause.

The Israeli fears are not confined to the movement of Algeria, which forced President Abdelaziz Bouteflika to resign, but also to the fighting in Libya and to the overthrow of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, regimes that appeased and posed no threat to Israeli policies. National Security Research at Tel Aviv University.

According to Israeli researchers, what is happening in Algeria, Sudan and Libya is a product of the Arab spring and its repercussions that have moved to the Arab and Islamic countries in Africa, which obliges Tel Aviv to reconsider its policies towards the Arab Maghreb and the African continent.

Israeli concerns about the return of the political Islam in Algeria after the overthrow of President Bouteflika, the infiltration of the influence of the Islamic state organization and the jihadist movements in the Arab Maghreb, the strengthening of support for the Palestinian cause and the possibility of renewed arms transfers from these countries to the resistance in Gaza through Sinai.

Instability
"The incitement in North Africa, what is the movement and the protests in Algeria?", The researcher Sara Foyer issued an assessment of the position of the National Security Research Center, in which she reviewed the mobility of Algeria and its implications for Israeli policies in the Maghreb and Africa and stressed that the movement of Algeria caused a state of instability In Africa, which has lived relatively stable.

The researcher believes that the peoples of the region live new lifestyles, but they express fears of mobilization and widespread popular mobilization against the dictatorships and the military establishment, fearing the perpetuation of violence similar to what happened in the countries of the Arab Spring.

However, the outbreak of protests in Algeria, Africa's largest country, suggests that deterrence may have eroded, and instability in North Africa could pose security challenges to Tel Aviv.

Foyer suggests that policy makers in Tel Aviv pay special attention to five trends in Algeria in the coming months: the transfer of power, the continued economic weakness, the political Islam, the activity of jihadist movements, and the expansion of Russian influence.

Israel's immediate concern is that protests in Algeria could escalate into a more destabilizing event, with continued chaos in Libya and the creation of a vacuum with the continued existence of Arab asylum in the Islamic Maghreb.

Therefore, the researcher believes that Israel should examine opportunities to improve security cooperation with the countries of the region most affected by the instability, especially those countries that are more willing to cooperate with Tel Aviv, and suggests that the Israeli authorities expand cooperation with Egypt to include coordination in intelligence gathering for Securing the western borders of Egypt.

Foyer said the recent political achievement between Israel and Chad stems from Chad's desire to curb the violence from Libya with Israeli help. "Israel will do the right thing by quietly exploiting similar opportunities elsewhere in the region," Foyer said.

With regional dynamics, Foyer believes that "Israel must prepare and prepare for all scenarios," and expects Tel Aviv to be more effective in the Maghreb and Africa.

Radical transformations
The same position is expressed by Dr. Yaron Friedman, lecturer in the Middle East and Islam course at the University of Haifa, where he believes that the current situation in Algeria, Sudan and Libya shows a radical change. "Unfortunately, the wave of revolutions in the Arab world at the beginning of the decade proved to exist in our region, Tunisia, has two options: Islamic rule or military dictatorship. "

In Algeria, "it is still possible to ask whether the army will allow a smooth transition to democratic elections like those held in Tunisia at the end of the dictatorship, while in Sudan and Libya, leaders seem to prefer to follow in the footsteps of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi "He said.

The researcher believes that the Algerian army will not allow the return of the Islamists to rule as happened in the early nineties of the last century, and that he will use the "scarecrow" movements jihad and external threats in his efforts to control the reins of government.

Friedman suggests that changes in Libya, Algeria and Sudan may indicate greater stability on the border with Egypt. These military regimes will seek to stabilize even if the price is to suppress civil rights and restrict press freedom.