Egypt after the amendment of the Constitution .. Clogging or political breakthrough?

Abdul Karim Salim - Cairo

Despite the objections and criticisms, the Egyptian regime, under the recent constitutional amendments, has proceeded at a steady pace towards its goal. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi will remain in power for two more years, and will allow him to run for a third term of six years. On the joints of the state.

It is widely believed that the post-constitutional stage is different from what preceded it. In this regard, two contradictory views prevail. Politicians expect a political breakthrough from Sisi's sense of satisfaction and confidence in maintaining the policy of former President Hosni Mubarak to create an industrial outlet for politics by fabricating a conservative opposition, Of staying as his predecessor remained.

On the other hand, they are interested in political affairs, believing that Sisi will not repeat what is believed to be a mistake by Mubarak, which allowed an area of ​​opposition that was expanded until it was overthrown in a popular revolution in 2011. Therefore, they expect Egypt to witness further repression, especially with an external and regional supportive regime , Fragile and fragmented internal opposition, and popular fears of protests that further complicate the economic and political situation.

More tyranny
"The constitutional reforms that strengthen the president's powers will not allow Egypt to overcome the structural challenges facing the country, so a new wave of protest can take place," according to a report by the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs.

"The new provisions that the Egyptians were invited to vote on in the last constitutional review are emptying the last achievements of the 2011 revolution from their content," said the director of studies at the institute and political science professor Didier Pune.

For his part, believes the director of the International Institute for Political Science and Strategy Mamdouh Al-Munir that the adoption of constitutional amendments after the "play referendum" entered the country in the phase of "Republic II" after the first founded by the late President Gamal Abdel Nasser, a stage of more brutal and despotic, although the actors one So far, mainly the army and the Brotherhood.

Al-Munir also strongly believes that "the opposition with its current structure is not suitable to be opposed in a country where the political arena has been completely closed and there is no room for all forms of opposition."

In his speech to Al-Jazeera Net, Al-Munir expects that the opposition will remain according to the current data as it is an "out-of-the-way opposition," especially since the deal of the century is at its doorstep and Sisi is the centerpiece, and therefore the West is not prepared to give it up.

The director of the International Institute for Political and Strategic Sciences (IFPI) is changing the situation on the possibility of entering a new variable in the arena, such as the failure of the "deal of the century" or the occurrence of popular disturbance.

He added that those who detract from amendments from their role as judges, if they want to act before the adoption of the amendments to prevent them, and not after their adoption, expressed regret that Sisi "destroyed the state institutions in order to survive."

Journalist Salim Azzouz confirmed that Sisi would continue to rule with an iron fist, because he believes that the revolution against Mubarak was due to the loosening of the security grip, and because he allowed a breakthrough in the course of freedom of the press and expression, as well as the freedom to demonstrate.

In an article, the writer confirmed that Sisi believed that any breakthrough would open the way for his downfall.

Anwar al-Hawari described the next period after the referendum as "a stable dictatorship that controls iron and fire and is protected by the constitution and the law until 2030."

Al-Hawari, in a blog post on Facebook, called for initiatives to adopt democratic alternatives to achieve a lot without "a clash with the ruling dictatorship without surrendering to it." He called for building more than one democratic alternative ready to succeed the dictatorship in 2030, before or after.

Despite the constant expectation of tyranny, the writer did not rule out a political breakthrough or a popular revolution in "all possibilities are contained, the dictatorship is reasonable and moderate as it is likely to be extremism and slander, and the people are patient and likely, as (what) is likely to get angry and explode, pure".

The future is better
"The next stage is an opportunity for a better future," said Ghassam leader Moussa Mousa Mustafa Moussa, who came to rival Sissi in last year's presidential election. "It is also an opportunity to complete the achievements of Sisi."

Moussa said in televised remarks that the constitutional amendments provide an opportunity for parties "to enter the political action strongly."

For his part, political analyst Abdul Azim Hammad said that the result of the referendum stirred stagnant water in Egyptian politics, calling on the opposition to exploit these results in political action and peaceful struggle against the regime.

In an article entitled "In the wake of the referendum, holes in a solid wall," Hammad said, "Regardless of the statistical results of the last popular referendum on the constitutional changes closest to the coup, the most important political outcome may be to move stagnant water into the Egyptian politics river. Primarily by the opposition forces, partisan and nonpartisan, and by the public opinion, by and after. "

Initiatives .. Divisions
But it seems that Hammad's invitation to the opposition will find several difficulties, as the invitation of the former presidential candidate Ayman Nour to 100 people inside and outside - to start a national dialogue - a sharp split between political forces despite the consensus among all those invited to the danger of continuing Sisi at the head of the country.

Nur's call was aimed at "saving Egypt and creating an acceptable national alternative, internally and externally, from different currents and symbols."

Although Nur stressed that the call for dialogue does not mean the formation of a political alliance or a unified entity of the opposition, a number of invitees strongly attacked, and some of the pretext of lack of prior knowledge, while others rejected the presence of leaders of the Brotherhood in the list of invitees.

"There is a great opportunity for the opposition to unite after the end of the referendum on the amendment of the constitution," he said, pointing to the growing state of awareness and anger at the regime's practices and policies that take everyone to destruction, as he put it.