After the Bayern election, there is a lot to analyze at the CSU. The party loses its absolute majority in the state parliament. According to projections, it comes to 37.4 percent. That is ten percentage points less than in 2013; the worst election result of the Christian Social since 1950.
"We accept it, with humility, and will have to learn lessons from it," commented Prime Minister Markus Söder the performance of his party. "It will depend in the next few weeks that we work up what this result is, and draw the necessary conclusions," said party leader Horst Seehofer.
An important point in the workup will be the question of voter migration. Hundreds of thousands of voters ran away from the Christian Socialists - in both directions: the CSU handed over some 180,000 voters to the Greens, and another 180,000 to the AfD. This emerges from an analysis of the preliminary voter migration of Infratest dimap for ARD (as of 20:00 on election day).
The CSU lost 170,000 voters to the Free Voters, 40,000 to the FDP. From the SPD the Christsozialen brought about 100,000 voters. In addition, 200,000 former non-voters of the CSU gave their votes, more than any other party.
Green people are chasing away hundreds of thousands of voters
Even more voters than the CSU were able to chase away the Greens of the SPD: around 210,000. The Greens in Bavaria bring by far the best result of their history and become the second strongest force, also because they were able to convince former non-voters: about 120,000 gave them their vote.
Not only the CSU gave votes to the Free Voters (FW). Also 70,000 SPD voters and 10,000 FDP voters moved to the camp of FW, the third strongest force are likely. Even with previous non-voters, the FW can score points.
The AFD moves into the state parliament and is likely to make the fourth largest faction. However, the party lags behind the 12.4 percent it won in the 2017 federal elections in Bavaria. In addition to the votes of former CSU voters receive the right-wing populists, especially from the camp of the parties, which were currently represented in the state parliament (220,000), as well as from the group of non-voters (170,000), the largest increase. The FW give 60,000 voters to the AfD; The party recorded a smaller increase in SPD, FDP and Greens voters.
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For the Social Democrats not only the overall result, but also the view of the voters' migration is bitter. The SPD loses to all established parties voters, most of them to the Greens, the second most to the CSU. 50,000 voters emigrate to parties that - like The Left - will not be represented in the state parliament, 10,000 did not vote.
The FDP convinces 40,000 non-voters and chases away the Christian social (40,000) and the Social Democrats (10,000) second votes. The Liberals still have to worry about their entry into the state parliament. You lose 10,000 voters each to Green, FW and AfD.
Not only in the results, there was a lot of movement, but also in the participation. Voter turnout is at its highest level in more than three decades. Nearly 72 percent of voters cast their votes - a good eight percent more than at the polling five years ago.
And how did the parties in the different age groups cut off?
CSU and SPD get their best results among older voters. But also in the group "60 years and older" the two parties are losing out - just as in all other age groups. The Christsozialen record their biggest losses among younger voters, the SPD in the group of 45- to 59-year-olds.
In addition, in the 2018 election results for both traditional people's parties, the younger the voters, the worse the result. In the group between 18 and 24 years the CSU gets 26 per cent of the votes, the SPD seven per cent.
The Greens and the FW can improve in all age groups, the Liberals in all but the group 60 and older. The AfD gets its best result among 35- to 44-year-olds and 45- to 59-year-olds: 13 percent. The worst results are registered by the right-wing populists in the youngest (7 percent) and oldest voters (8 percent).
Looking at the voting behavior of women and men separately, there is a conspicuousness, which was already observed in the general election last year: The AfD vote significantly more men (14 percent) than women (eight percent).
Green and SPD, on the other hand, are more popular with women than with men. For CSU, FW, FDP and Left, there are no significant differences in voting behavior by gender.
The view of the various occupational groups is likely to be painful for the Social Democrats: among AfD workers (25 percent) is almost three times as good as the SPD (nine percent); The strongest party among them is in this - as in all other groups - the CSU.
However, the result of the Christian socials is worse in all occupations except the civil servants than five years ago. Conversely, it behaves at the FW. They lose their pay at the officials, but they end up in all the other groups.
The Greens are improving with all professional groups. They get their best results among officials (26 percent) and self-employed (25 percent). The latter are a group in which liberals traditionally get their best results. So also with this choice.
In the higher education sector , the Greens set once again significantly higher than in 2013. They also overtake the CSU and get the best result of all parties. But also in the middle and low education sector, the party is growing. The FW also improve in all educational settings.