Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras no longer has a coalition partner: Panagiotis Kammenos resigned on Sunday. The defense minister and head of the right-wing populist party "Independent Greeks" justified this step with the Macedonia deal, which is to end the decades-long name dispute with the neighboring country.

This agreement makes it impossible for him to continue his duties, said Kammenos. In the last elections in September 2015, his party won seven seats in the Greek parliament.

REUTERS

Panos Kammenos

The Syriza Party of PM Tsipras has 145 MPs There are 300 seats in Parliament. Until his resignation Kammenos' party was thus an important majority funder.

Is Tsipras losing power now?

No. For this, the prime minister would have to lose the vote of no confidence in parliament, which he has scheduled for this week. The debate on it will begin on Tuesday, the vote is expected to take place Wednesday night. Tsipra's chances of surviving the vote are good.

Kammenos is unlikely to support his ex-coalition partner. However, the prime minister may count on - presumably four - members of the "Independent Greeks" and at least two other parliamentarians who are either independent or voting against their own party.

Is everything the same after the vote of no confidence?

No. Tsipras has said he wants to stay in office for the full four years until October. But: He is dependent on the support of ad hoc majorities of renegade parliamentarians - an at least problematic starting position.

The premier is already cross-party in the criticism. The opposition accuses him of pursuing a cynical policy of backroom dealings to stay in power. The far more realistic scenario is that Tsipras will bring some legislative proposals through Parliament - such as raising the basic income - and are expected to call new elections in May.

Why did Kammenos leave the coalition?

Kammenos publicly stated that he could no longer support a government that wants to ratify the name deal with Macedonia. The agreement foresees that Greece's small neighbor in the north will be renamed "North Macedonia". In return, Athens has agreed to no longer oppose the entry of that republic into NATO and to stop blocking the start of EU accession negotiations.

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The contract has already been ratified in Skopje. Tsipras plans to bring the decision to Parliament at the end of January. Kammenos withdrawal from the government will not bring the contract to failure. Tsipras can count on votes of "Independent Greeks" and other MPs.

Why did Kammenos really leave the coalition?

At first glance, the end of the government looks like a painful separation between the two coalition partners. In fact, it plays Kammenos and Tsipras in the cards, since now they both can pursue their own political goals. Their political cooperation was based on an anti-bailout agenda. So far, this was the glue that held both together.

However, since the last EU aid program expired in August, this unifying theme no longer exists. Tsipras and Kammenos now hope that they benefit from the apparently well-prepared political divorce that holds Tsipras in office and Kammenos ensures political survival.

What is Kammenos hoping for from this step?

The party of Kammenos is in polls bad there. With his tough attitude in the name dispute with Macedonia, he hopes to win votes. Government leaders abroad - especially Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) - have congratulated Tsipras on the deal. In the West, the Macedonia Agreement is seen as an important contribution to the stabilization of the Balkans, reducing the influence of Russia and Turkey in the explosive region.

But: in Greece the deal is extremely unpopular; about 70 percent of the population reject him according to surveys. A new wave of protests is planned nationwide. Now, free of Tsipras, Kammenos could probably form an alliance with other small right-wing splinter parties.

What does Tsipras have from it?

Tsipras is no longer attached to the stigma of sharing power with a right-wing populist who often displayed questionable behavior. This gives him the opportunity to pursue and stage his core strategy even better before the new elections: to convince the Greeks that he has transformed himself from a radical populist to a moderately pragmatic left-wing political leader.

Tsipras believes that this makes him more attractive to the electorate. He has every reason to believe that his former coalition partner will succeed in the election, as Kammenos' campaign is aimed primarily at voters who have voted for the biggest opposition party so far - the conservative Nea Dimokratia. According to recent polls, Nea Dimokratia holds up to 12 percentage points. Party leader Kyriakos Mitsotakis is considered the favorite for the post of the next Greek Prime Minister.

What does the end of the governing coalition mean for Greece and the Eurozone?

Even if Tsipras passes the vote of no confidence on Wednesday, a toxic phase of political polarization will begin in Greece - and the country faces a risky, protracted campaign. For the economy, the pre-election traditionally brings bad news:

  • The Greek population could consume less and spend less, which reduces economic growth.
  • In addition, the reforms agreed with international lenders could be delayed; at the same time the temptation to spend more money than there is growing.

In addition, the global economic climate is deteriorating noticeably, and Greece is still reluctant to lend money from the markets and prove that it can stand on its own two feet. Most analysts therefore believe that swift elections are the best thing for Greece.