Brexit summit: The drama before the drama before the drama

United Kingdom and Gibraltar European Union membership referendum

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Just no champagne corks! The direction statement from the EU Council building is clear, showing how tense the mood in Brussels is a few days before the Brexit special summit on Sunday. Then the heads of state and government of the now only 27 EU countries want to endorse the resignation contract and the political statement on future relations with British Prime Minister Theresa May. Alone, that the contracts are now ready for signing, is already an achievement.

But smiling faces and party mood at a summit that governs the divorce from the British? No, that does not fit.

Nothing is to play into the hands of the Brexiteers in London, who will do their utmost to bury the exit deal in the British House of Commons vote in mid-December. The head of state and government remembers the informal summit in Salzburg in September, at the end of which a humiliated Theresa May had to travel home to the United Kingdom. "Not acceptable" were their suggestions, their colleagues May had let know then. The fact that Council President Donald Tusk also posted a picture of the cake buffet, including a little joke, did not arrive well on the island. Brexit, as you know in Brussels since then, is a topic where the British leave their humor.

How tense the mood in the Brussels bureau of bureaucracy and editorial offices is these days is also shown by the fact that meticulous reports are made of meetings that would otherwise attract little interest - such as the meetings of the EU ambassadors. From such a meeting British newspapers drew on Wednesday, for example, the message that Chancellor Angela Merkel threatened with the boycott of the special summit.

Merkel wants to avoid negotiations at the summit

What happened? In fact, the German EU ambassador had repeatedly made it very clear that Berlin did not even think about entering negotiations again at the summit on Sunday. "It's time we put the lid on the pot," said Michael Claus - in German. If the texts are not ready, the Chancellor would certainly have better things to do on Sunday than travel to Brussels. This sentence is also guaranteed by participants.

Surprisingly, the announcement is not. Merkel herself made clear on Wednesday in her speech in the Bundestag that she expected clarification of any problems until Sunday.

At the meeting of the ambassadors on Thursday morning 13 speakers support the German attitude, as one participant meticulously noted. Everyone knows how dangerous it would be if the resignation contract or political statement were reopened by the Heads of State and Government. Then a wish-you-something threatens, from all sides there would be change requests.

Spain isolates itself with Gibraltar problem

The anger of the EU ambassadors is especially true of the Spaniards and their cautious, somewhat late-found problem with Gibraltar.

The Spanish Government fears that the Brexit deal could set the lintel on Spain's southern coast as part of the UK. Spain claims Gibraltar, which fell under British rule in 1713, and sees in the Brexit negotiations now apparently an opportunity to enforce its demands.

Among the other Member States, this causes frustration. The legal argument of Spain is "nasty", says an EU diplomat. It was an "annoying hypernational attempt to settle a 300 year old bill". Two weeks ago nobody in Madrid talked about Gibraltar. If the Spaniards wanted to reopen the withdrawal agreement or the political declaration on Sunday, they would be completely isolated. "If the Spaniards want that, they are alone against 27," said the diplomat.

However, it would be possible for a face-saving solution for Spain. In addition to the exit agreement and the political declaration on future relations, a third text could be adopted at the summit on Sunday: a joint statement by the European Council. According to diplomats, Gibraltar could also be discussed.

What does Theresa May want on Saturday in Brussels?

While changes to the resignation agreement are almost considered excluded, there is still some room for maneuver in the political statement on future relations. That's because the ambassadors did not get the statement until Thursday morning - later than many a Brussels journalist, as noted at the Ambassadors' Summit.

For the first time, many EU governments therefore have the opportunity to examine the document closely. At first, however, the paper was received positively at the meeting of the ambassadors, as participants report.

Open questions will be discussed on Friday at the meeting of the Sherpas, ie the negotiators from the Member States. Then, at least from Berlin's perspective, is the deadline for possible changes to the political statement. Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker would then be able to make such changes with May, who announced himself again in Brussels on Saturday.

What else is the purpose of the reunion - May had already stopped by Juncker's coffee on Wednesday - is unclear. Maybe it should go to the extra explanation to Gibraltar. Maybe May also needs a little bit of drama to convince her home crowd that she is fighting for the British to the last minute in the EU. Some observers also think it is not out of the question that the summit on Sunday will not end at 12 noon as planned, but last until late into the night.

But who knows, maybe May just wants to sleep in Brussels once, instead of leaving London on Sunday at dawn. The peace could use them - because after the summit May must sell their deal in the home.

The true drama begins then.