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British MPs said "yes" Wednesday, Feb. 27 to the new strategy of Theresa May that could lead to a postponement of the date of divorce, scheduled for March 29. What are the possible scenarios now? Back on the reasons for a difficult exit.
On June 24, 2016, the day after the referendum on the Brexit ("British exit"), the result was very clear: British voters had voted 52% against 48% to leave the European bloc. A little later Theresa May's government announced that this exit would take place on March 29, 2019 at 23:00 London time. In the meantime the negotiations did not go as the British hoped and everything was complicated with the appearance in our daily lives of strange words like "Article 50", "Backstop", "Meaningful vote", "No deal »,« Brexiters »,« Remainers »... To try to find a light at the end of the Brexit tunnel, here is a short guide listing the obstacles on the road and the possible exit scenarios.
What blocks?
The British Parliament in a first "Meaningful Vote" (January 15, 2005) rejected the withdrawal agreement negotiated by Theresa May with the European Union by an overwhelming and unprecedented majority of 230 votes. Main cause of this resounding "No": the "Backstop". Called "safety net" in French, this clause is intended to prevent after the Brexit the return of a physical border (with checkpoints, barriers and customs) on the island of Ireland between the Republic of Ireland member of the EU and Northern Ireland, which province of the United Kingdom will no longer be part of the European bloc. This means that if London and Brussels can not agree on their future trade relations, Northern Ireland, unlike the rest of the UK, will continue to enforce some European laws for goods such as food.
The objections of British parliamentarians
But many British MPs do not like this safeguard clause: some because it implies that the UK remains bound by European rules and tariffs that would prevent it from concluding its own trade agreements. Others fear that the country will remain "trapped" indefinitely in this situation knowing that London can not end the "Backstop" without the permission of the EU. For them it would be a fake Brexit. Finally, the Northern Ireland Unionist MPs (DUP), who hold a majority to the British Prime Minister, refuse to see Northern Ireland treated differently from the rest of the United Kingdom and fear that the "Backstop" will result in an annexation. of the Province by the Republic of Ireland.
What is happening now?
Since the rejection of its agreement, the Prime Minister has been trying to negotiate with Brussels changes to its text, including alternative arrangements to the "Backstop" (a limitation in time of this clause, or the use of technological solutions to perform the control of goods without barriers along the border) in the hope of convincing Parliament to accept the amended agreement.
Nevertheless, for the moment, Brussels refuses to reopen the withdrawal agreement and to touch the "Backstop". Faced with this impasse and to give herself some time, Theresa May decided to return to the British elected officials for a second "decisive vote" on her agreement on March 12, hoping that by then she could obtain concessions from from Brussels.
Scenarios possible from March 12
The strategy of Theresa May is to play the clock to force the final members to vote in favor of his amended agreement. So far, she has been betting on the fact that, on the one hand, pro-Europeans who want to stay in the EU ("Remainers") would be afraid to leave without a deal ("No deal") on the fateful date of 29 March with catastrophic consequences for the British economy and, on the other hand, that the eurosceptics ("Brexiters") who want at any price to leave even without agreement would also end up voting for his agreement lest he there would be no Brexit at all if Parliament prevented a "No deal".
But in the meantime, under the intense pressure of the pro-European wing of his conservative party, the head of the government had to make a significant change in tactics and accept the possibility of a postponement of Brexit. A dramatic turnaround after tirelessly reiterating for months and months that the UK would leave the European Union on March 29, 2019. Result Theresa May proposed to Parliament to decide in three stages:
■ March 12
The Prime Minister's withdrawal agreement returns to MPs in a "decisive vote". If they vote for, then London leaves the EU, ideally for the government on the scheduled date of March 29th. But if there is not enough time to vote the necessary laws Brexit, it is possible that London and Brussels agree to provide a short period of a few weeks to complete the process. On the other hand, if MEPs again reject the withdrawal agreement, Theresa May promised them that they could vote on an exit without agreement the next day.
■ March 13
MEPs vote for or against a Brexit without agreement. If the "No deal" wins, then the UK leaves the European Union without agreement on March 29th. But it is unlikely, because a majority of parliamentarians are against a "No deal". If they reject this possibility, another vote this time to delay Brexit is expected the next day.
■ March 14
MEPs vote for or against a Brexit postponement. It is always possible that they vote against and in this case, the default solution remains an exit without agreement on March 29th. But it is more likely that Parliament will vote in favor of postponement. In this case Theresa May would ask for an extension of Article 50 (of the Lisbon Treaty which formalizes the exit of a country from the EU and gives it two years to negotiate a withdrawal agreement). If the 27 European countries accepted, the Brexit would be rejected, but, according to Theresa May, not more than three months, that is to say not beyond the end of June so as not to interfere with the European elections.
■ And after March 14?
The vote of a postponement of the Brexit does not solve anything and several issues are possible:
1. New vote on the Theresa May agreement: the simplest solution for the government would be to once again try to get its withdrawal agreement accepted by the Parliament during the extension period and to leave the EU at a later date.
2. Major Renegotiation: The government could propose a completely different Brexit agreement. If the EU agrees to renegotiate, Article 50 is extended and then the UK Parliament votes in favor of the new agreement and the UK leaves the EU at a later date. But if the EU refuses to renegotiate, the government must reconsider its options: exit without agreement, early elections, vote of no confidence, second referendum.
3. Second referendum: this new vote of the British people could have the same consultative status as that of 2016, but some deputies want this time a binding referendum whose result would automatically take effect without going through the agreement of Parliament. Whatever its form, this second referendum could not be organized before about 5 months, the time for an ad hoc committee to define the legal framework and the question asked.
4. Legislative elections: Theresa May could decide that the best way out of the impasse is to hold an advance poll in the hope of winning and consolidate her majority to obtain an unequivocal mandate and impose her agreement to withdrawal.
5. New vote of no confidence: Labor , the Labor opposition party, could table a new motion of no confidence to try to bring down the government of Theresa May and take back the Brexit file.
6. No Brexit: The European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruled a few months ago that the United Kingdom had the right to unilaterally revoke Article 50 in order to cancel Brexit. Nevertheless, this possibility is tenuous at this stage and it is more likely that a second referendum or a change of government will intervene before reaching that point.