After the European election: Kramp-Karrenbauer calls CDU leadership to retreat

CDU leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer invited the party leadership to a closed session after the European elections on 26 May. This announced Kramp-Karrenbauer on Monday during a board meeting in Berlin. The meeting will take place on 2 and 3 June, said CDU General Secretary Paul Ziemiak after the deliberations. Previously, the daily newspaper "Die Welt" reported on the planned exam.

The point is to set the right priorities in view of the tax assessment that has been available up to now under "possibly changing framework conditions", said Ziemiak. The tax estimate is scheduled for 9 May. Tax revenues may also decline as the economy slows down. This could also lead to new debates between the Union and the SPD. From June 13 to 14, the leaders of the coalition factions gather to discuss the further work of the government coalition.

The exam should also be an occasion to discuss the consequences of the European and Bremen elections for the CDU and the Federal Government. Within the Union, some fear - depending on the outcome of the elections - a new crisis for the black-red federal government. Even over early Bundestag elections is occasionally speculated. This would probably also mean that Kramp-Karrenbauer should more quickly than suspected of trying to succeed Angela Merkel (CDU) as Chancellor.

How does the Civey method work?

The opinion research institute Civey works with a multi-level fully automated procedure. All representative real-time surveys are played in a Germany-wide network of more than 20,000 websites ("Riversampling"), so it is not only users of SPIEGEL ONLINE interviewed. Anyone can participate in the surveys online and will be included in the representative result with their answers if they have registered. From these users, Civey draws a quoted sample that ensures that it matches the population, for example, in terms of age, gender and population density. Finally, in a third step, the results are weighted by other attendees' socio-demographic factors and attitudes to correct distortions and prevent manipulation. More information can be found in the Civey FAQ.

Why is a registration necessary?

The registration helps to weigh the answers, thus allowing a result for the surveys, which is representative of the voting population in Germany. Each participant is asked for their gender, year of birth and place of residence. After that everyone can give their opinion in further surveys on different topics.

How do the results become representative?

The answer of each participant is weighted so that the result of a survey is representative of the population. The weighting is done fully automatically on the basis of the personal details at the registration as well as the history of earlier answers of a user. More methodological details can be found in the Civey whitepaper.

Will you reach enough participants online?

Opinion polls are usually conducted by phone or online. The significance of the results depends on how many people can be reached and how many actually participate in a survey when they are approached. Internet connections and landline connections are currently about equally widespread in Germany - with about 90 percent of households, mobile phones even 95 percent. The willingness to participate in all methods in the single-digit percentage range, especially experts estimate it for telephone surveys.
Thus, in both methods there is a group of people that can not be reached because they either have no connection to the respective network or do not want to participate in the survey. Therefore, a significant number of people must always be approached for a meaningful result. Civey surveys are currently in addition to SPIEGEL ONLINE in more than 20,000 other websites involved, including various media. This ensures that as many populations as possible can be reached.

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Until the result of a survey becomes representative, enough different people have to participate. Whether this is already successful, makes Civey transparent, in that for each survey result a statistical error probability is specified. The number of participants and the interview time are also published for each survey.

What happens with my data?

The personal data of the users are stored encrypted on German servers and remain secret. They serve only to weight the answers and to ensure that the surveys are not manipulated. To prevent this, Civey uses both statistical and technical methods.

Who is behind Civey surveys?

At this point, readers in the app and on the mobile / stationary website have the opportunity to participate in a representative Civey survey. Civey is an online opinion research institute based in Berlin. To compile its representative surveys, the software of the company, founded in 2015, merges websites into a nationwide survey network. In addition to SPIEGEL ONLINE include, among other things, the "Tagesspiegel", "World", "Wirtschaftswoche" and "Rheinische Post". Civey was funded by the ProFit funding program of Investitionsbank Berlin and the European Regional Development Fund.