“Updating the political elite”: why key parties in Germany are losing popularity

On October 14 in Bavaria, elections were held in the local parliament, according to the results of the vote, the parties will receive their share of mandates in a unicameral parliament, after which the Cabinet will be formed.

According to exit polls, the Christian Social Union, which is part of the CDU / CSU bloc led by Merkel, will lose the majority and will not be able to form a cabinet of ministers on its own. The CSU gets only 35.5% of the vote. “Soyuz-90 / Greens” ranked second (18.5%), “Free voters” ranked third (11.5%), and Fourth, “Alternative for Germany” (11%).

At the same time, the head of ADG, Alexander Gauland, and the chairman of the Bavarian branch of ADG, Martin Zychert, have already declared that they are satisfied with the results of the party.

“The forecast shows that the party has a good foundation. Let's see how everything goes. This is a good basis for working in parliament, ”Ziherta quoted Tass.

However, after processing more than 50% of the ballots, the CSU results are slightly better - 39.2%.

Experts initially did not doubt that the distribution of political forces in the second most significant federal state of Germany would noticeably change as a result of these elections.

“In fact, the vote was of a protest nature. This is a vote of no confidence issued by the ruling parties, the CSU under the leadership of Horst Seehofer and the CDU headed by Angela Merkel, ”said Vladislav Belov, head of the Center for German Studies at the European Institute, in an interview with RT.

The defeat in the elections in Bavaria will be a heavy blow for the CDU / CSU bloc, experts say. The fact is that Bavaria is the second largest region of the FRG, a real engine of the German economy. The loss of the majority in the Bavarian parliament is a particularly alarming signal for the CSU, because traditionally in this region the party was the undisputed leader.

However, the loss of the majority was not a big surprise. According to a survey conducted by the Civey Research Institute for the Augsburger Allgemeine and Spiegel Online publications and published on October 11, the level of support for CSU in Bavaria decreased to 32.9%. In the second place - “Soyuz-90 / Greens” with a rating of 18.5%, in third place is the “Alternative for Germany” - 12.8% of Bavarians sympathize with the right party.

According to experts, now the CSU will find it difficult to form a coalition - the “greens” condemn the Conservatives for initiatives to limit migration.

In general, the preferences of the inhabitants of Bavaria are now correlated with the mood of the population of the rest of Germany. As shown by a survey conducted by the Emnid service commissioned by the newspaper Bild am Sonntag, only 26% of Germans are ready to vote for the CDU and the CSU. In 17% of respondents, they expressed support for the Social Democratic Party of Germany and the Greens. The Alternative for Germany is not far behind, and 15% of Germans are ready to vote for the party.

The most popular "Alternative for Germany" enjoys in the territory of the former GDR. As shown by data from a September survey conducted by the sociological service Kantar Emnid, in the eastern lands the party is supported by about 25% of the population.

Experts predict that, over time, AdG may become the leading political force in the eastern regions of Germany. However, in order to start seriously influencing the federal agenda, the parties need to enlist electoral support in other lands - first of all, in Bavaria, Lower Saxony and the land of Baden-Württemberg.

Road to bavaria

Until recently, Bavaria was a real stronghold of the ruling coalition: since 1957, the majority of the seats in its parliament invariably got to the Conservatives from the CSU. At the federal level, the CSU is a traditional partner of the Christian Democratic Union, led by Angela Merkel since 2000.

Recently, however, the popularity of CSU in the region began to decline markedly. Already in the 2013 elections, the CSU showed far from the best result in Bavaria, gaining 47.7% of the votes, although this allowed the party to independently form a cabinet of ministers. But the most tangible blow to the positions of the ruling party was dealt with by the 2015 migration crisis.

• Migrants on the Austrian-German border
• Reuters
• © Michaela Rehle

Because of its geographical location, Bavaria took over the main flows of migrants who sought to get from the south of Europe to prosperous Germany. The growing discontent of the population forced the CSU to take more drastic measures to combat illegal migration.

Bavaria is one of the main lands of Germany, in terms of population (12.8 million people) it ranks second in the country after the federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia. In addition, it is one of the most economically developed regions - Bavaria is the leader in Germany in terms of GDP per capita.

High-tech industries such as automotive and electrical engineering are actively developing here.

Although after 2015–2016 the influx of refugees to Germany began to decline, migration issues still remain at the center of public attention.

For example, it was disagreements over anti-immigration measures that caused this year a split between the “inseparable” partners - the CDU and the CSU. The leader of the CSU, Horst Seehofer, who occupied the post of Minister of the Interior after the elections to the Bundestag, insisted on tightening the immigration legislation.

This almost led to the disintegration of the “big coalition”, which includes the block of the Christian Democratic and Christian Social Unions (CDU / CSU) and the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD).

However, the parties managed to reach a compromise: henceforth, the refugees must apply for asylum immediately at the border of Germany. Only by receiving the approval of the German authorities, the migrant will be able to enter the country.

According to experts, a public split in the ruling coalition was another reason for the decline in the popularity of the CDU / CSU in the country.

The tragedy that shook the small town of Chemnitz at the end of August, and subsequently all of Germany, added fuel to the fire. On the night of August 26, a local resident named Daniel Hillig was killed in the city. The police detained two suspects without delay - both of them were from the Middle East.

• Reuters
• © Michaela Rehle

As a result, the town turned into an arena for clashes between right and left activists. This story hit the pages of not only German, but also world media.

“Alternative for Germany” was actively involved in these events: party activists participated in street rallies of memory, and party speakers used them as an excuse to criticize Angela Merkel’s migration policy.

For their part, representatives of the ruling coalition and a number of media outlets strongly condemned the speeches in Chemnitz, calling them a manifestation of “harassment” and “hatred”. By a surprising coincidence, just two weeks before the elections in Bavaria, law enforcement agencies detained a “terrorist group of radicals” called “Revolution Chemnitz”. As the Federal Prosecutor's Office of Germany announced, young people were preparing a coup d'état. Commenting on this story, CSU leader Horst Seehofer did not fail to recall the policy of "zero tolerance towards the right-wing radicals."

• The leader of the "Alternatives for Germany" Alexander Gauland speaks at the congress in Augsburg
• Reuters
• © Michaela Rehle

Interestingly, not long before this loud arrest, the popularity ratings of AdG broke a new record - about 18%. AdG has bypassed even such a strong party as the SPD. Of course, no one would dare to accuse AdG in direct support of right-wing terror, but this story could still cast a shadow on the party, experts say. Soon, the “Alternatives for Germany” rating at the federal level dropped by several points.

Vote of no confidence

Of course, the prospect of obtaining AdG of a large number of mandates in the Bavarian Landtag was seriously disturbed by supporters of the course of Angela Merkel. Shortly before the elections in Bavaria, several actions against Alternative took place.

For example, a group of cultural figures called “Artists with a heart” created and distributed a clip in the network, which calls not to vote for AdG. And literally on the day of elections to the Bavarian parliament, a large-scale rally against racism and xenophobia was held in Berlin - more than 100 thousand people took to the streets.

The meeting was attended by the head of the Foreign Ministry of Germany Heiko Mass, as well as a number of other famous and high-ranking officials. It is easy to guess who exactly was addressed criticism, sounded on Saturday from the stands of the capital's demonstration. On the eve of the rally, Maas told reporters that the goal of the action was to show supporters of far-right ideas and right-wing populists that the German people would not allow them to split the society.

According to the head of the department of social and political studies of the Institute of Europe, RAS, Vladimir Schweitzer, the appeals made at the Berlin rally are unlikely to make a big impression on the Bavarians.

“Berlin is not a decree for Bavaria, Munich lives by its own laws. The events of 2015 made a very negative impression on the Bavarians, the situation with migrants was very acute. On this wave, AdG received serious political bonuses and it is possible that part of the CSU electorate will indeed switch to Alternative, the expert said in an interview with RT.

However, this will not be decisive, since the AdG will not create a coalition with anyone - they simply will not be allowed to enter the system of executive power.

“Germany is now split into different political camps, but no one will seek allied relations with AdG, she is out of the game. But these elections, of course, will show the degree of influence of the “Alternative”, Schweizer added.

A similar point of view was expressed in an interview with RT by the head of the Center for German Studies at the Institute of Europe, Vladislav Belov. According to the expert, one should pay attention not only to the growing popularity of AdH, but also to the rise of such previously unpopular forces in Bavaria as “green”.

“It is possible that the“ greens ”will even be able to double the number of seats in parliament. All this is the protest behavior of the electorate, tired of the so-called “people's parties”. The CDU and the CSU have been losing popularity over the past decade, ”the expert explained.

According to Vladislav Belov, it is wrong to associate the growing popularity of AdG with some growth of right-wing sentiment in Germany. By and large, this is also a protest against the CDU / CSU, and therefore the chances are growing in all small parties, including, for example, the Left Party, which has never been popular in Bavaria.

• Horst Seerhofer
• Reuters
• © Joachim Herrmann / File Photo

Fatigue from the CDU and the CSU is due to a number of reasons: this is both uncontrolled migration, and a number of socio-economic problems. If we talk specifically about the CSU, then its rating is negatively affected by the conflict of Horst Seehofer, who is in strained relations even with the Bavarian Prime Minister Marus Zöder, experts say.

“Seehofer did a lot on migration issues, he was in favor of creating transfer centers on the border of Germany. But this is not enough for the voter, the voter is waiting and demanding the renewal of the political elite, ”concluded Vladislav Belov.